How to pronounce "tariff"
Transcript
hello everybody happy 2025 wherever you
hello everybody happy 2025 wherever you
hello everybody happy 2025 wherever you are it is January the 6th it is snowing
are it is January the 6th it is snowing
are it is January the 6th it is snowing here in New York it is our first full
here in New York it is our first full
here in New York it is our first full week back in the office and our minds
week back in the office and our minds
week back in the office and our minds are naturally turning to whatever is
are naturally turning to whatever is
are naturally turning to whatever is coming in the year ahead now as we all
coming in the year ahead now as we all
coming in the year ahead now as we all know there is a lot going on in the
know there is a lot going on in the
know there is a lot going on in the world from ongoing Wars to technological
world from ongoing Wars to technological
world from ongoing Wars to technological uncertainty to the ever shifting
uncertainty to the ever shifting
uncertainty to the ever shifting landscape of global political landscape
landscape of global political landscape
landscape of global political landscape I am looking at you just Trudeau who
I am looking at you just Trudeau who
I am looking at you just Trudeau who resigned from the prime ministership
resigned from the prime ministership
resigned from the prime ministership just today it is a wild world out there
just today it is a wild world out there
just today it is a wild world out there risk it seems is everywhere so who
risk it seems is everywhere so who
risk it seems is everywhere so who better to help us understand the nature
better to help us understand the nature
better to help us understand the nature of those risks and what we might do
of those risks and what we might do
of those risks and what we might do about them than president of Eurasia
about them than president of Eurasia
about them than president of Eurasia group and GZ media Ian brema joining us
group and GZ media Ian brema joining us
group and GZ media Ian brema joining us now hi Ian happy New Year Helen Happy
now hi Ian happy New Year Helen Happy
now hi Ian happy New Year Helen Happy New Year to you so you have just
New Year to you so you have just
New Year to you so you have just published your annual list of top risks
published your annual list of top risks
published your annual list of top risks of 2025 a hotly anticipated report that
of 2025 a hotly anticipated report that
of 2025 a hotly anticipated report that provides the worst bedtime reading known
provides the worst bedtime reading known
provides the worst bedtime reading known to man and we are going to go through
to man and we are going to go through
to man and we are going to go through some of the risks that you have
some of the risks that you have
some of the risks that you have identified now the first one the top top
identified now the first one the top top
identified now the first one the top top risk if you will is called the g0o wins
risk if you will is called the g0o wins
risk if you will is called the g0o wins and as I understand it the win that
and as I understand it the win that
and as I understand it the win that you're talking about here is actually a
you're talking about here is actually a
you're talking about here is actually a Global Leadership vacuum is is that
Global Leadership vacuum is is that
Global Leadership vacuum is is that right and why is this your number one
right and why is this your number one
right and why is this your number one risk this year it is I guess a lot of
risk this year it is I guess a lot of
risk this year it is I guess a lot of people would be wondering well shouldn't
people would be wondering well shouldn't
people would be wondering well shouldn't the United States and I mean president
the United States and I mean president
the United States and I mean president Trump coming in and he's very you know
Trump coming in and he's very you know
Trump coming in and he's very you know sort of unpredictable and he's going to
sort of unpredictable and he's going to
sort of unpredictable and he's going to break a lot of China including some
break a lot of China including some
break a lot of China including some literally uh isn't that you know the top
literally uh isn't that you know the top
literally uh isn't that you know the top risk not not at all actually he's the
risk not not at all actually he's the
risk not not at all actually he's the leading symptom and in many ways the top
leading symptom and in many ways the top
leading symptom and in many ways the top beneficiary of the g0o world and it's
beneficiary of the g0o world and it's
beneficiary of the g0o world and it's the global issue it's the fact that you
the global issue it's the fact that you
the global issue it's the fact that you have lots of global challenges lots of
have lots of global challenges lots of
have lots of global challenges lots of global opportunities but no Global
global opportunities but no Global
global opportunities but no Global Leadership the United States is by far
Leadership the United States is by far
Leadership the United States is by far the most powerful country in the world
the most powerful country in the world
the most powerful country in the world and it is not interested in providing
and it is not interested in providing
and it is not interested in providing collective security or promoting Global
collective security or promoting Global
collective security or promoting Global free trade architecture or promoting
free trade architecture or promoting
free trade architecture or promoting democracy or common values of rule of
democracy or common values of rule of
democracy or common values of rule of law it's much more transactional much
law it's much more transactional much
law it's much more transactional much more I'll get a deal with you and by the
more I'll get a deal with you and by the
more I'll get a deal with you and by the way I'm more powerful than you are so
way I'm more powerful than you are so
way I'm more powerful than you are so you're going to have to do much more of
you're going to have to do much more of
you're going to have to do much more of what I want in other words it's
what I want in other words it's
what I want in other words it's increasingly a much more Chinese
increasingly a much more Chinese
increasingly a much more Chinese perspective on how one engages in global
perspective on how one engages in global
perspective on how one engages in global Affairs or dare I say it's a Return To
Affairs or dare I say it's a Return To
Affairs or dare I say it's a Return To Rule of the Jungle to law of the Jungle
Rule of the Jungle to law of the Jungle
Rule of the Jungle to law of the Jungle and other countries are much weaker you
and other countries are much weaker you
and other countries are much weaker you already mentioned Justin Trudeau you
already mentioned Justin Trudeau you
already mentioned Justin Trudeau you could have easily mentioned uh soon to
could have easily mentioned uh soon to
could have easily mentioned uh soon to be ex-president Yun from South Korea
be ex-president Yun from South Korea
be ex-president Yun from South Korea working his way through impeachment
working his way through impeachment
working his way through impeachment getting confirmed by the Supreme Court
getting confirmed by the Supreme Court
getting confirmed by the Supreme Court constitutional Court there you could
constitutional Court there you could
constitutional Court there you could have mentioned the German government in
have mentioned the German government in
have mentioned the German government in disarray the French government um in
disarray the French government um in
disarray the French government um in disarray um go on and on countries
disarray um go on and on countries
disarray um go on and on countries around the world that are friends or
around the world that are friends or
around the world that are friends or adversaries of the United States are
adversaries of the United States are
adversaries of the United States are just in a weaker position and they are
just in a weaker position and they are
just in a weaker position and they are playing defense so they're not trying to
playing defense so they're not trying to
playing defense so they're not trying to say oh we'll be global leaders since
say oh we'll be global leaders since
say oh we'll be global leaders since you're not going to be we'll promote
you're not going to be we'll promote
you're not going to be we'll promote rule of law it's mostly can we stay out
rule of law it's mostly can we stay out
rule of law it's mostly can we stay out of the headlines and not get crosswise
of the headlines and not get crosswise
of the headlines and not get crosswise with either the Americans or the Chinese
with either the Americans or the Chinese
with either the Americans or the Chinese and so that reality that a g0o World
and so that reality that a g0o World
and so that reality that a g0o World Disorder a lack of Global Leadership
Disorder a lack of Global Leadership
Disorder a lack of Global Leadership that we've seen coming for 10 years but
that we've seen coming for 10 years but
that we've seen coming for 10 years but this year really is you know the the
this year really is you know the the
this year really is you know the the dominant theme for how geopolitics runs
dominant theme for how geopolitics runs
dominant theme for how geopolitics runs that is weaving its way through all of
that is weaving its way through all of
that is weaving its way through all of the risks that we see around the world
the risks that we see around the world
the risks that we see around the world whether it comes from the United States
whether it comes from the United States
whether it comes from the United States or from the US China relationship the US
or from the US China relationship the US
or from the US China relationship the US Mexico relationship it comes from
Mexico relationship it comes from
Mexico relationship it comes from ungoverned spaces you know Wars and
ungoverned spaces you know Wars and
ungoverned spaces you know Wars and power Vacuums in the Middle East in EUR
power Vacuums in the Middle East in EUR
power Vacuums in the Middle East in EUR Asia Europe all of that ultimately is
Asia Europe all of that ultimately is
Asia Europe all of that ultimately is coming from the g0 not a G7 not a G20
coming from the g0 not a G7 not a G20
coming from the g0 not a G7 not a G20 win
win
win it all right so let's dive into the
it all right so let's dive into the
it all right so let's dive into the United States let's talk about what's
United States let's talk about what's
United States let's talk about what's going to happen and what is to come in
going to happen and what is to come in
going to happen and what is to come in the year ahead Trump is coming back into
the year ahead Trump is coming back into
the year ahead Trump is coming back into Power he is going to be a lot more
Power he is going to be a lot more
Power he is going to be a lot more organized he knows a lot more this time
organized he knows a lot more this time
organized he knows a lot more this time around than he did last time around so
around than he did last time around so
around than he did last time around so he actually features as the rule of dawn
he actually features as the rule of dawn
he actually features as the rule of dawn on your list of risks talk about that
on your list of risks talk about that
on your list of risks talk about that and talk about what we should be
and talk about what we should be
and talk about what we should be watching as we as we watch the new
watching as we as we watch the new
watching as we as we watch the new president come come into office well as
president come come into office well as
president come come into office well as I said it's a feature not a bug
I said it's a feature not a bug
I said it's a feature not a bug uh that president-elect Trump is
uh that president-elect Trump is
uh that president-elect Trump is unpredictable and his supporters will
unpredictable and his supporters will
unpredictable and his supporters will say that's how he you know keeps
say that's how he you know keeps
say that's how he you know keeps everyone guessing um and he gets things
everyone guessing um and he gets things
everyone guessing um and he gets things done as a consequence he's got much more
done as a consequence he's got much more
done as a consequence he's got much more Consolidated power today not only
Consolidated power today not only
Consolidated power today not only because his allies and his adversaries
because his allies and his adversaries
because his allies and his adversaries are weaker but also because he controls
are weaker but also because he controls
are weaker but also because he controls the Republican party doesn't need their
the Republican party doesn't need their
the Republican party doesn't need their cels like they did in 2017 they need his
cels like they did in 2017 they need his
cels like they did in 2017 they need his he's got a much more Consolidated
he's got a much more Consolidated
he's got a much more Consolidated Administration around him it doesn't
Administration around him it doesn't
Administration around him it doesn't have you know Mike Pence and and others
have you know Mike Pence and and others
have you know Mike Pence and and others like Mike Pompeo um who were you know
like Mike Pompeo um who were you know
like Mike Pompeo um who were you know sort of adults from the Republican
sort of adults from the Republican
sort of adults from the Republican establishment he has a group of people
establishment he has a group of people
establishment he has a group of people that have distinguished themselves with
that have distinguished themselves with
that have distinguished themselves with their complete loyalty to him so you
their complete loyalty to him so you
their complete loyalty to him so you know the founding fathers of the United
know the founding fathers of the United
know the founding fathers of the United States were worried about what would
States were worried about what would
States were worried about what would happen if you didn't have proper checks
happen if you didn't have proper checks
happen if you didn't have proper checks and balances on the executive If instead
and balances on the executive If instead
and balances on the executive If instead of rule of law you had rule of man well
of rule of law you had rule of man well
of rule of law you had rule of man well I mean increasing what you have is
I mean increasing what you have is
I mean increasing what you have is Donald Trump and what he decides and
Donald Trump and what he decides and
Donald Trump and what he decides and what he wants is what you're going to
what he wants is what you're going to
what he wants is what you're going to have to respond to and that's true
have to respond to and that's true
have to respond to and that's true domestically especially as he looks to
domestically especially as he looks to
domestically especially as he looks to politicize um the power Ministries in
politicize um the power Ministries in
politicize um the power Ministries in the US like the FBI the Department of
the US like the FBI the Department of
the US like the FBI the Department of Justice the IRS um in a way that he
Justice the IRS um in a way that he
Justice the IRS um in a way that he believes that they were weaponized
believes that they were weaponized
believes that they were weaponized against him by democrats and the
against him by democrats and the
against him by democrats and the so-called deep state to investigate him
so-called deep state to investigate him
so-called deep state to investigate him to arrest him you know to to throw him
to arrest him you know to to throw him
to arrest him you know to to throw him in jail uh as they want wanted to um
in jail uh as they want wanted to um
in jail uh as they want wanted to um he's now going to take that and and use
he's now going to take that and and use
he's now going to take that and and use that against his enemies but also
that against his enemies but also
that against his enemies but also internationally so this rule of dawn
internationally so this rule of dawn
internationally so this rule of dawn which is going to lead to a lot of wins
which is going to lead to a lot of wins
which is going to lead to a lot of wins for the United States in the early days
for the United States in the early days
for the United States in the early days it's not that Trump is going to fail
it's not that Trump is going to fail
it's not that Trump is going to fail everywhere he tries to implement policy
everywhere he tries to implement policy
everywhere he tries to implement policy but that uncertainty that
but that uncertainty that
but that uncertainty that unpredictability is of course an
unpredictability is of course an
unpredictability is of course an enormous risk for everyone else dealing
enormous risk for everyone else dealing
enormous risk for everyone else dealing with him around the world I mean just
with him around the world I mean just
with him around the world I mean just today you have the United Kingdom um in
today you have the United Kingdom um in
today you have the United Kingdom um in crisis domestically not because they're
crisis domestically not because they're
crisis domestically not because they're trying to figure out how do we respond
trying to figure out how do we respond
trying to figure out how do we respond to Elon Musk you know who is not only by
to Elon Musk you know who is not only by
to Elon Musk you know who is not only by far the wealthiest person in the world
far the wealthiest person in the world
far the wealthiest person in the world but also is the closest adviser spending
but also is the closest adviser spending
but also is the closest adviser spending the most time with Trump and so you know
the most time with Trump and so you know
the most time with Trump and so you know he's attacking uh the the British
he's attacking uh the the British
he's attacking uh the the British government directly and in their view
government directly and in their view
government directly and in their view putting members of their cabinet in
putting members of their cabinet in
putting members of their cabinet in personal Danger
personal Danger
personal Danger and they have no idea how to respond
and they have no idea how to respond
and they have no idea how to respond because if they hit Elon are they then
because if they hit Elon are they then
because if they hit Elon are they then hitting Trump too is is that going to
hitting Trump too is is that going to
hitting Trump too is is that going to lead to blowback from the United States
lead to blowback from the United States
lead to blowback from the United States this is an immediate crisis for them in
this is an immediate crisis for them in
this is an immediate crisis for them in an unprecedented way um since the United
an unprecedented way um since the United
an unprecedented way um since the United States has become uh the world's
States has become uh the world's
States has become uh the world's superpower that that's what we mean when
superpower that that's what we mean when
superpower that that's what we mean when we talk about the rule of dawn you said
we talk about the rule of dawn you said
we talk about the rule of dawn you said something really interesting in the
something really interesting in the
something really interesting in the report that I just want to get you to
report that I just want to get you to
report that I just want to get you to say more about which is that democracy
say more about which is that democracy
say more about which is that democracy itself will not be threatened the US is
itself will not be threatened the US is
itself will not be threatened the US is is not hungry there has been a lot of
is not hungry there has been a lot of
is not hungry there has been a lot of talk over the last 48 years about the
talk over the last 48 years about the
talk over the last 48 years about the state of democracy and about the imperal
state of democracy and about the imperal
state of democracy and about the imperal state of democracy so I'm really
state of democracy so I'm really
state of democracy so I'm really interested to hear that you don't
interested to hear that you don't
interested to hear that you don't actually think that this is under threat
actually think that this is under threat
actually think that this is under threat so just talk more about that well I I
so just talk more about that well I I
so just talk more about that well I I don't believe uh that the United States
don't believe uh that the United States
don't believe uh that the United States is on the precipice of dictatorship and
is on the precipice of dictatorship and
is on the precipice of dictatorship and I also continue to see significant
I also continue to see significant
I also continue to see significant resilience in institutions that can push
resilience in institutions that can push
resilience in institutions that can push back against Trump's successes I mean we
back against Trump's successes I mean we
back against Trump's successes I mean we saw that you know with the effort to
saw that you know with the effort to
saw that you know with the effort to appoint Matt Gates um as attorney
appoint Matt Gates um as attorney
appoint Matt Gates um as attorney general running the doj and you know
general running the doj and you know
general running the doj and you know within two weeks Trump backed off and he
within two weeks Trump backed off and he
within two weeks Trump backed off and he hasn't said anything about get S Trump
hasn't said anything about get S Trump
hasn't said anything about get S Trump is by the way incredibly impressive
is by the way incredibly impressive
is by the way incredibly impressive about going really hard in favor of
about going really hard in favor of
about going really hard in favor of someone and then throwing them
someone and then throwing them
someone and then throwing them completely under the bus when he
completely under the bus when he
completely under the bus when he realizes that he's lost that one just
realizes that he's lost that one just
realizes that he's lost that one just just bounces off of them right but it's
just bounces off of them right but it's
just bounces off of them right but it's not just that it's that you still have a
not just that it's that you still have a
not just that it's that you still have a professional military in the United
professional military in the United
professional military in the United States still have an independent
States still have an independent
States still have an independent Judiciary yes 63 conservative appointees
Judiciary yes 63 conservative appointees
Judiciary yes 63 conservative appointees but independent uh from the president
but independent uh from the president
but independent uh from the president from the executive and continues to act
from the executive and continues to act
from the executive and continues to act uh that way uh you you have a very very
uh that way uh you you have a very very
uh that way uh you you have a very very thin margin um in for republicans in the
thin margin um in for republicans in the
thin margin um in for republicans in the house um you also have more adults that
house um you also have more adults that
house um you also have more adults that are institutionalists in the Senate um
are institutionalists in the Senate um
are institutionalists in the Senate um and finally of course the US is a
and finally of course the US is a
and finally of course the US is a federal system uh with with Governors
federal system uh with with Governors
federal system uh with with Governors that matter and elections system that is
that matter and elections system that is
that matter and elections system that is Run state by state um and then in two
Run state by state um and then in two
Run state by state um and then in two years time you're going to have midterms
years time you're going to have midterms
years time you're going to have midterms and frankly it's more likely than not
and frankly it's more likely than not
and frankly it's more likely than not the Democrats will come back in the
the Democrats will come back in the
the Democrats will come back in the House of Representatives then so I I
House of Representatives then so I I
House of Representatives then so I I take very seriously the fact that the
take very seriously the fact that the
take very seriously the fact that the United States is becoming more
United States is becoming more
United States is becoming more structurally corrupt that the system is
structurally corrupt that the system is
structurally corrupt that the system is increasingly captured by a small number
increasingly captured by a small number
increasingly captured by a small number of incredibly wealthy and Powerful
of incredibly wealthy and Powerful
of incredibly wealthy and Powerful special interest that that does not
special interest that that does not
special interest that that does not reflect a representative democracy that
reflect a representative democracy that
reflect a representative democracy that that has been getting pretty bad since
that has been getting pretty bad since
that has been getting pretty bad since you and I have known each other hell and
you and I have known each other hell and
you and I have known each other hell and far worse than any other Advanced
far worse than any other Advanced
far worse than any other Advanced industrial democracy and it's getting
industrial democracy and it's getting
industrial democracy and it's getting worse still in the incoming Trump
worse still in the incoming Trump
worse still in the incoming Trump Administration but that is very
Administration but that is very
Administration but that is very difficult from saying very different
difficult from saying very different
difficult from saying very different from saying that the US democracy is
from saying that the US democracy is
from saying that the US democracy is about to fall apart or that uh Trump is
about to fall apart or that uh Trump is
about to fall apart or that uh Trump is going to be able to ensure that he can
going to be able to ensure that he can
going to be able to ensure that he can stay in power he would change the
stay in power he would change the
stay in power he would change the Constitution and be allowed to run at 82
Constitution and be allowed to run at 82
Constitution and be allowed to run at 82 for a third term I think that this
for a third term I think that this
for a third term I think that this virally no chance uh that that could
virally no chance uh that that could
virally no chance uh that that could happen for example so there is a lot of
happen for example so there is a lot of
happen for example so there is a lot of uncertainty and instability coming from
uncertainty and instability coming from
uncertainty and instability coming from the institutional erosion that is
the institutional erosion that is
the institutional erosion that is affected by the Incredible strength of
affected by the Incredible strength of
affected by the Incredible strength of one man and those around him as
one man and those around him as
one man and those around him as president but that's very different from
president but that's very different from
president but that's very different from saying the Republic is facing
saying the Republic is facing
saying the Republic is facing existential danger the latter is not
existential danger the latter is not
existential danger the latter is not true I'm very glad to hear you say that
true I'm very glad to hear you say that
true I'm very glad to hear you say that okay let's talk about economics of
okay let's talk about economics of
okay let's talk about economics of course the state of the economy was a
course the state of the economy was a
course the state of the economy was a huge issue in the election and people
huge issue in the election and people
huge issue in the election and people really bought into the idea that Trump
really bought into the idea that Trump
really bought into the idea that Trump could bring about a healthy and strong
could bring about a healthy and strong
could bring about a healthy and strong American economy you have trumponomics
American economy you have trumponomics
American economy you have trumponomics on your list of risks so talk to us
on your list of risks so talk to us
on your list of risks so talk to us about whether you think people are
about whether you think people are
about whether you think people are buying it are you buying it what's going
buying it are you buying it what's going
buying it are you buying it what's going to happen with the economy coming
to happen with the economy coming
to happen with the economy coming up the Trump uh risk
up the Trump uh risk
up the Trump uh risk economically um comes from the fact that
economically um comes from the fact that
economically um comes from the fact that uh his impact uh of his policies on the
uh his impact uh of his policies on the
uh his impact uh of his policies on the US and global economy uh I believe is
US and global economy uh I believe is
US and global economy uh I believe is going to be significantly larger uh than
going to be significantly larger uh than
going to be significantly larger uh than uh what is presently priced in um and
uh what is presently priced in um and
uh what is presently priced in um and there are a couple of points here uh one
there are a couple of points here uh one
there are a couple of points here uh one is on tariffs um he he to the extent
is on tariffs um he he to the extent
is on tariffs um he he to the extent that he has an
that he has an
that he has an ideological um you know sort of poll uh
ideological um you know sort of poll uh
ideological um you know sort of poll uh it's really about the utility of tariffs
it's really about the utility of tariffs
it's really about the utility of tariffs as the principal policy tool for
as the principal policy tool for
as the principal policy tool for economic outcomes and National Security
economic outcomes and National Security
economic outcomes and National Security outcomes that he wants and again he has
outcomes that he wants and again he has
outcomes that he wants and again he has a team that believes that supports him
a team that believes that supports him
a team that believes that supports him and is very aligned to him We're clearly
and is very aligned to him We're clearly
and is very aligned to him We're clearly going to see that uh with us relations
going to see that uh with us relations
going to see that uh with us relations with China also appears on the list that
with China also appears on the list that
with China also appears on the list that that relationship which has been
that relationship which has been
that relationship which has been comparatively well managed in the last
comparatively well managed in the last
comparatively well managed in the last 12 months even though there's no trust
12 months even though there's no trust
12 months even though there's no trust in it is likely to get it's likely to
in it is likely to get it's likely to
in it is likely to get it's likely to deteriorate significantly but also
deteriorate significantly but also
deteriorate significantly but also tariffs against other countries Friends
tariffs against other countries Friends
tariffs against other countries Friends of the United States where the US is
of the United States where the US is
of the United States where the US is running significant trade deficits much
running significant trade deficits much
running significant trade deficits much larg
larg
larg than in 2017 when Trump was President
than in 2017 when Trump was President
than in 2017 when Trump was President you would have seen in the Washington
you would have seen in the Washington
you would have seen in the Washington Post earlier today there was a leak that
Post earlier today there was a leak that
Post earlier today there was a leak that said oh he's only thinking about tariffs
said oh he's only thinking about tariffs
said oh he's only thinking about tariffs vers on friends in a few National
vers on friends in a few National
vers on friends in a few National Security areas he's going to back off
Security areas he's going to back off
Security areas he's going to back off the markets went up and Trump
the markets went up and Trump
the markets went up and Trump immediately put out a social media post
immediately put out a social media post
immediately put out a social media post saying absolutely not true um I'm tariff
saying absolutely not true um I'm tariff
saying absolutely not true um I'm tariff man I'm gonna do this so that's going to
man I'm gonna do this so that's going to
man I'm gonna do this so that's going to have a big impact on the global economy
have a big impact on the global economy
have a big impact on the global economy secondly he's very serious about getting
secondly he's very serious about getting
secondly he's very serious about getting illegal immigrants out he wants to
illegal immigrants out he wants to
illegal immigrants out he wants to deport them they're 15 to 20 million in
deport them they're 15 to 20 million in
deport them they're 15 to 20 million in the United States right now he's not
the United States right now he's not
the United States right now he's not going to get rid of 15 to 20 million but
going to get rid of 15 to 20 million but
going to get rid of 15 to 20 million but in his first year can he get rid of a
in his first year can he get rid of a
in his first year can he get rid of a million I think he can and over four
million I think he can and over four
million I think he can and over four years three to five million is very very
years three to five million is very very
years three to five million is very very plausible and and he was voted in and
plausible and and he was voted in and
plausible and and he was voted in and Harris and Biden earlier were voted out
Harris and Biden earlier were voted out
Harris and Biden earlier were voted out because in large part of not handling
because in large part of not handling
because in large part of not handling illegal immigration just as we've seen
illegal immigration just as we've seen
illegal immigration just as we've seen play out across all of Europe over the
play out across all of Europe over the
play out across all of Europe over the last decade you're seeing play out in
last decade you're seeing play out in
last decade you're seeing play out in the United States now I'm not saying
the United States now I'm not saying
the United States now I'm not saying that it's wrong for him to try to remove
that it's wrong for him to try to remove
that it's wrong for him to try to remove illegal immigrants from the United
illegal immigrants from the United
illegal immigrants from the United States I'm saying there's going to be an
States I'm saying there's going to be an
States I'm saying there's going to be an impact the impact is labor costs are
impact the impact is labor costs are
impact the impact is labor costs are going up these people are also consumers
going up these people are also consumers
going up these people are also consumers in the US economy not when they're not
in the US economy not when they're not
in the US economy not when they're not there anymore they're taxpayers Medicare
there anymore they're taxpayers Medicare
there anymore they're taxpayers Medicare Social Security not when they're not
Social Security not when they're not
Social Security not when they're not there anymore right so there's going to
there anymore right so there's going to
there anymore right so there's going to be a meaningful impact on inflation and
be a meaningful impact on inflation and
be a meaningful impact on inflation and a fiscal constraint that comes from
a fiscal constraint that comes from
a fiscal constraint that comes from Trump putting these policies in place
Trump putting these policies in place
Trump putting these policies in place and and legal workers are not going to
and and legal workers are not going to
and and legal workers are not going to fill that Gap so you've got two areas of
fill that Gap so you've got two areas of
fill that Gap so you've got two areas of of extraordinary priority for the Trump
of extraordinary priority for the Trump
of extraordinary priority for the Trump Administration that are not priced into
Administration that are not priced into
Administration that are not priced into the market that are going to slow growth
the market that are going to slow growth
the market that are going to slow growth you also have um of course Market
you also have um of course Market
you also have um of course Market positive things he'll do like he's going
positive things he'll do like he's going
positive things he'll do like he's going to continue to reduce regulation and I'm
to continue to reduce regulation and I'm
to continue to reduce regulation and I'm sure that will be beneficial to the
sure that will be beneficial to the
sure that will be beneficial to the financial sector and crypto and uh
financial sector and crypto and uh
financial sector and crypto and uh fossil fuel companies and others he's
fossil fuel companies and others he's
fossil fuel companies and others he's also intending to um roll over the
also intending to um roll over the
also intending to um roll over the 2017 uh tax reductions on high net worth
2017 uh tax reductions on high net worth
2017 uh tax reductions on high net worth individuals uh and on corporations but
individuals uh and on corporations but
individuals uh and on corporations but the regulatory roll back most of that
the regulatory roll back most of that
the regulatory roll back most of that loow hanging fruit was already picked in
loow hanging fruit was already picked in
loow hanging fruit was already picked in his first term and it's an extension of
his first term and it's an extension of
his first term and it's an extension of the tax cuts it's not a further
the tax cuts it's not a further
the tax cuts it's not a further reduction me meanwhile um the
reduction me meanwhile um the
reduction me meanwhile um the macroeconomic environment is worse than
macroeconomic environment is worse than
macroeconomic environment is worse than it was before um companies are trading
it was before um companies are trading
it was before um companies are trading at a much higher multiple um you've got
at a much higher multiple um you've got
at a much higher multiple um you've got higher inflation you've got higher debt
higher inflation you've got higher debt
higher inflation you've got higher debt levels it's much more challenging for
levels it's much more challenging for
levels it's much more challenging for Trump to move the needle so what I'm
Trump to move the needle so what I'm
Trump to move the needle so what I'm saying is that Trump onomics actually is
saying is that Trump onomics actually is
saying is that Trump onomics actually is likely to be a much more significant
likely to be a much more significant
likely to be a much more significant downside risk this time around precisely
downside risk this time around precisely
downside risk this time around precisely because he's going to implement the
because he's going to implement the
because he's going to implement the policies he wants to he will be success
policies he wants to he will be success
policies he wants to he will be success uccessful politically and and then
uccessful politically and and then
uccessful politically and and then people people do not expect this right
people people do not expect this right
people people do not expect this right now I want to stick with immigration for
now I want to stick with immigration for
now I want to stick with immigration for a moment I think one of the lasting
a moment I think one of the lasting
a moment I think one of the lasting images that came out of the last
images that came out of the last
images that came out of the last presidency was of separated families on
presidency was of separated families on
presidency was of separated families on the southern border of the United States
the southern border of the United States
the southern border of the United States do do you think that we're going to see
do do you think that we're going to see
do do you think that we're going to see this type of visual again and how do you
this type of visual again and how do you
this type of visual again and how do you think he'll deal with that if we do and
think he'll deal with that if we do and
think he'll deal with that if we do and do you think that we'll see the same
do you think that we'll see the same
do you think that we'll see the same type of response to that that we saw in
type of response to that that we saw in
type of response to that that we saw in that first term the in the first term um
that first term the in the first term um
that first term the in the first term um the Mexican uh president Lopez oor uh
the Mexican uh president Lopez oor uh
the Mexican uh president Lopez oor uh basically cried Uncle uh it was one of
basically cried Uncle uh it was one of
basically cried Uncle uh it was one of Trump's successes uh The Mexican
Trump's successes uh The Mexican
Trump's successes uh The Mexican government was told that if you don't
government was told that if you don't
government was told that if you don't tighten the southern border of Mexico
tighten the southern border of Mexico
tighten the southern border of Mexico because so many of the people that come
because so many of the people that come
because so many of the people that come to the United States over the southern
to the United States over the southern
to the United States over the southern border are come coming from other
border are come coming from other
border are come coming from other countries across Central and Latin
countries across Central and Latin
countries across Central and Latin America um that you they're going to get
America um that you they're going to get
America um that you they're going to get hit by much harder tariffs and not only
hit by much harder tariffs and not only
hit by much harder tariffs and not only did The Mexican government uh actually
did The Mexican government uh actually
did The Mexican government uh actually take that seriously and so the numbers
take that seriously and so the numbers
take that seriously and so the numbers came down but they ultimately uh had a
came down but they ultimately uh had a
came down but they ultimately uh had a success um in the signing
success um in the signing
success um in the signing usmca uh replacing NAFTA so Mexico I
usmca uh replacing NAFTA so Mexico I
usmca uh replacing NAFTA so Mexico I would argue in Trump's first term was
would argue in Trump's first term was
would argue in Trump's first term was pretty positive um this time around
pretty positive um this time around
pretty positive um this time around Trump has bigger problems with Mexico
Trump has bigger problems with Mexico
Trump has bigger problems with Mexico than he did last time around um it's not
than he did last time around um it's not
than he did last time around um it's not just um about uh illegal immigrants
just um about uh illegal immigrants
just um about uh illegal immigrants though that's one big part of it it's
though that's one big part of it it's
though that's one big part of it it's also the fenel crisis um it's a much
also the fenel crisis um it's a much
also the fenel crisis um it's a much bigger trade deficit and it's also
bigger trade deficit and it's also
bigger trade deficit and it's also Chinese Goods that are coming through
Chinese Goods that are coming through
Chinese Goods that are coming through Mexico into the United States he wants
Mexico into the United States he wants
Mexico into the United States he wants to address all four of those he does not
to address all four of those he does not
to address all four of those he does not have a single person very strong running
have a single person very strong running
have a single person very strong running point on the relationship like he did
point on the relationship like he did
point on the relationship like he did with Robert lighthiser and Jared Kushner
with Robert lighthiser and Jared Kushner
with Robert lighthiser and Jared Kushner uh facilitating the conversations behind
uh facilitating the conversations behind
uh facilitating the conversations behind the scenes that's not the case this time
the scenes that's not the case this time
the scenes that's not the case this time around there's a lot of cooks in that
around there's a lot of cooks in that
around there's a lot of cooks in that relationship also Trump had a good
relationship also Trump had a good
relationship also Trump had a good relationship with Lopez oor Lopez oor is
relationship with Lopez oor Lopez oor is
relationship with Lopez oor Lopez oor is kind of a far-left
kind of a far-left
kind of a far-left populist ID logically very different
populist ID logically very different
populist ID logically very different from Trump but you know kind of
from Trump but you know kind of
from Trump but you know kind of grandiose charismatic roughly similar
grandiose charismatic roughly similar
grandiose charismatic roughly similar age and they liked each other they got
age and they liked each other they got
age and they liked each other they got along really well Claudia shine Bal I
along really well Claudia shine Bal I
along really well Claudia shine Bal I find very impressive but Helen she's a
find very impressive but Helen she's a
find very impressive but Helen she's a woman she's a PhD environmental
woman she's a PhD environmental
woman she's a PhD environmental scientist who got her degree at Berkeley
scientist who got her degree at Berkeley
scientist who got her degree at Berkeley I mean you couldn't find you couldn't
I mean you couldn't find you couldn't
I mean you couldn't find you couldn't dream up a demographic that would be
dream up a demographic that would be
dream up a demographic that would be more problematic in a personal
more problematic in a personal
more problematic in a personal relationship with Trump and so it's
relationship with Trump and so it's
relationship with Trump and so it's going to be hard for her to engage with
going to be hard for her to engage with
going to be hard for her to engage with him and get wins so I I I think that in
him and get wins so I I I think that in
him and get wins so I I I think that in the first year and let's also keep in
the first year and let's also keep in
the first year and let's also keep in mind this is on the back of a Mexican
mind this is on the back of a Mexican
mind this is on the back of a Mexican government that has had their peso get
government that has had their peso get
government that has had their peso get hammered uh for some of the
hammered uh for some of the
hammered uh for some of the Constitutional changes they're making
Constitutional changes they're making
Constitutional changes they're making like judicial reform in particular some
like judicial reform in particular some
like judicial reform in particular some social reforms as well the markets hate
social reforms as well the markets hate
social reforms as well the markets hate so the pesos just gotten destroyed um
so the pesos just gotten destroyed um
so the pesos just gotten destroyed um they have very little margin for error
they have very little margin for error
they have very little margin for error um in this first year year of trump in
um in this first year year of trump in
um in this first year year of trump in the relationship with the us so I think
the relationship with the us so I think
the relationship with the us so I think you know over four years us Mexico
you know over four years us Mexico
you know over four years us Mexico relations will be just fine but I think
relations will be just fine but I think
relations will be just fine but I think that in the first months of trump coming
that in the first months of trump coming
that in the first months of trump coming in uh it's going to be very very choppy
in uh it's going to be very very choppy
in uh it's going to be very very choppy Waters
Waters
Waters indeed what advice do you have for
indeed what advice do you have for
indeed what advice do you have for Claudia Shin bam who clearly she can't
Claudia Shin bam who clearly she can't
Claudia Shin bam who clearly she can't change the fact that she's a woman she
change the fact that she's a woman she
change the fact that she's a woman she can't change her educational background
can't change her educational background
can't change her educational background or anything about her she has a huge
or anything about her she has a huge
or anything about her she has a huge mandate from the Mexican population like
mandate from the Mexican population like
mandate from the Mexican population like what should she do to deal with Trump
what should she do to deal with Trump
what should she do to deal with Trump well give Trump wins early Mexico truly
well give Trump wins early Mexico truly
well give Trump wins early Mexico truly the Europeans can work together they're
the Europeans can work together they're
the Europeans can work together they're a large Marketplace they do business
a large Marketplace they do business
a large Marketplace they do business with lots of people around the world
with lots of people around the world
with lots of people around the world Mexico uh is only doing business with
Mexico uh is only doing business with
Mexico uh is only doing business with the United States they are fully
the United States they are fully
the United States they are fully integrated into the US supply chain they
integrated into the US supply chain they
integrated into the US supply chain they have no other place to go it would be
have no other place to go it would be
have no other place to go it would be like me advising the president of Lao
like me advising the president of Lao
like me advising the president of Lao how to deal with xiin ping you don't get
how to deal with xiin ping you don't get
how to deal with xiin ping you don't get to like hedge with the Americans or the
to like hedge with the Americans or the
to like hedge with the Americans or the Indians you've got one bet so they know
Indians you've got one bet so they know
Indians you've got one bet so they know that um I think a couple of things I
that um I think a couple of things I
that um I think a couple of things I would advise first uh and by the way I
would advise first uh and by the way I
would advise first uh and by the way I have advised um and and and I think her
have advised um and and and I think her
have advised um and and and I think her cabinet is very competent they're very
cabinet is very competent they're very
cabinet is very competent they're very technocratic um as opposed to the
technocratic um as opposed to the
technocratic um as opposed to the broader Marina party which is very
broader Marina party which is very
broader Marina party which is very popular but they're a new party and
popular but they're a new party and
popular but they're a new party and they've never they've never lost so
they've never they've never lost so
they've never they've never lost so they're overconfident what they think
they're overconfident what they think
they're overconfident what they think they can do it's going to be hard for
they can do it's going to be hard for
they can do it's going to be hard for her and she knows she needs to kind of
her and she knows she needs to kind of
her and she knows she needs to kind of get the party and get members of
get the party and get members of
get the party and get members of Congress under wraps and get her her
Congress under wraps and get her her
Congress under wraps and get her her cabinet taking the lead on all of this
cabinet taking the lead on all of this
cabinet taking the lead on all of this the easiest thing for them to do is kick
the easiest thing for them to do is kick
the easiest thing for them to do is kick the Chinese out there are a lot of
the Chinese out there are a lot of
the Chinese out there are a lot of places where you have Chinese parts that
places where you have Chinese parts that
places where you have Chinese parts that are actually passing through by the way
are actually passing through by the way
are actually passing through by the way Chinese investment into Mexico it's not
Chinese investment into Mexico it's not
Chinese investment into Mexico it's not creating Mexican jobs it's actually
creating Mexican jobs it's actually
creating Mexican jobs it's actually really angering in the textiles for
really angering in the textiles for
really angering in the textiles for example you've got a lot of small and
example you've got a lot of small and
example you've got a lot of small and medium Enterprises these are relatively
medium Enterprises these are relatively
medium Enterprises these are relatively poor and middle class Mexicans they're
poor and middle class Mexicans they're
poor and middle class Mexicans they're losing jobs because Chinese goods are
losing jobs because Chinese goods are
losing jobs because Chinese goods are coming in and undercutting them byd
coming in and undercutting them byd
coming in and undercutting them byd China set up shop and electric vehicles
China set up shop and electric vehicles
China set up shop and electric vehicles they're doing assembly they're not doing
they're doing assembly they're not doing
they're doing assembly they're not doing full manufacturing there very few jobs
full manufacturing there very few jobs
full manufacturing there very few jobs working for byd um in Mexico it's not
working for byd um in Mexico it's not
working for byd um in Mexico it's not like Ford it's not like GM so I I think
like Ford it's not like GM so I I think
like Ford it's not like GM so I I think it would benefit her from hitting China
it would benefit her from hitting China
it would benefit her from hitting China harder and earlier before her first
harder and earlier before her first
harder and earlier before her first meeting one-on-one with Trump she's had
meeting one-on-one with Trump she's had
meeting one-on-one with Trump she's had a phone call she hasn't gone to Mara
a phone call she hasn't gone to Mara
a phone call she hasn't gone to Mara Lago that was wise get her ducks in a
Lago that was wise get her ducks in a
Lago that was wise get her ducks in a row first that's what I would do I would
row first that's what I would do I would
row first that's what I would do I would also work on getting a good relationship
also work on getting a good relationship
also work on getting a good relationship with the incoming prime minister of
with the incoming prime minister of
with the incoming prime minister of Canada likely to be Pierre PV as soon as
Canada likely to be Pierre PV as soon as
Canada likely to be Pierre PV as soon as humanly possible because the Canadians
humanly possible because the Canadians
humanly possible because the Canadians will throw Mexico under a bus when usmca
will throw Mexico under a bus when usmca
will throw Mexico under a bus when usmca starts having negotiations Canadian
starts having negotiations Canadian
starts having negotiations Canadian leaders on the conservative side have
leaders on the conservative side have
leaders on the conservative side have made very clear hey we can have a good
made very clear hey we can have a good
made very clear hey we can have a good relationship with Trump we don't need
relationship with Trump we don't need
relationship with Trump we don't need Mexico right and NAFTA started off as a
Mexico right and NAFTA started off as a
Mexico right and NAFTA started off as a bilateral agreement between the US and
bilateral agreement between the US and
bilateral agreement between the US and Canada and it was only the US that said
Canada and it was only the US that said
Canada and it was only the US that said no we want Mexico let's make it
no we want Mexico let's make it
no we want Mexico let's make it trilateral they will try that again the
trilateral they will try that again the
trilateral they will try that again the Mexicans need to nip that in the butt
Mexicans need to nip that in the butt
Mexicans need to nip that in the butt and right now they really don't have a
and right now they really don't have a
and right now they really don't have a relationship with the Canadians and
relationship with the Canadians and
relationship with the Canadians and certainly not with the incoming
certainly not with the incoming
certainly not with the incoming conservatives that is a high priority in
conservatives that is a high priority in
conservatives that is a high priority in my view again that's something I have I
my view again that's something I have I
my view again that's something I have I have directly advised the leadership of
have directly advised the leadership of
have directly advised the leadership of Mexico all right let's stay um
Mexico all right let's stay um
Mexico all right let's stay um International let's talk about Russia um
International let's talk about Russia um
International let's talk about Russia um obviously the war with Ukraine has OCC
obviously the war with Ukraine has OCC
obviously the war with Ukraine has OCC Ed the headlines for a couple of years
Ed the headlines for a couple of years
Ed the headlines for a couple of years at this point you you seem to think that
at this point you you seem to think that
at this point you you seem to think that the ceasefire is coming but Russia is
the ceasefire is coming but Russia is
the ceasefire is coming but Russia is obviously still Rogue so talk to us
obviously still Rogue so talk to us
obviously still Rogue so talk to us about what we should be watching what we
about what we should be watching what we
about what we should be watching what we should be really paying attention to
should be really paying attention to
should be really paying attention to from Vladimir Putin and from Russia yeah
from Vladimir Putin and from Russia yeah
from Vladimir Putin and from Russia yeah Helen you and I first talked about this
Helen you and I first talked about this
Helen you and I first talked about this right after the invasion um and we've
right after the invasion um and we've
right after the invasion um and we've talked about it since uh back in January
talked about it since uh back in January
talked about it since uh back in January last year's top risks report um we had
last year's top risks report um we had
last year's top risks report um we had Russia Ukraine as our number three risk
Russia Ukraine as our number three risk
Russia Ukraine as our number three risk and we said that Ukraine was uh going to
and we said that Ukraine was uh going to
and we said that Ukraine was uh going to be partitioned which is not something I
be partitioned which is not something I
be partitioned which is not something I want at all uh but it was inevitable and
want at all uh but it was inevitable and
want at all uh but it was inevitable and now you've got just earlier today French
now you've got just earlier today French
now you've got just earlier today French president macron saying that zalinski is
president macron saying that zalinski is
president macron saying that zalinski is going to have to be realistic uh about
going to have to be realistic uh about
going to have to be realistic uh about what he's prepared to give up from a
what he's prepared to give up from a
what he's prepared to give up from a territorial perspective certainly that
territorial perspective certainly that
territorial perspective certainly that is Trump's perspective um and the
is Trump's perspective um and the
is Trump's perspective um and the ukrainians fully understand that they
ukrainians fully understand that they
ukrainians fully understand that they can't continue to fight the war the way
can't continue to fight the war the way
can't continue to fight the war the way they have um Russia also I mean you know
they have um Russia also I mean you know
they have um Russia also I mean you know they've got North Korean troops helping
they've got North Korean troops helping
they've got North Korean troops helping them now how much they're helping them
them now how much they're helping them
them now how much they're helping them is open to question there a lot of them
is open to question there a lot of them
is open to question there a lot of them getting killed um but they they could
getting killed um but they they could
getting killed um but they they could use a breather um and a ceasefire and
use a breather um and a ceasefire and
use a breather um and a ceasefire and Trump wants one and Trump has made very
Trump wants one and Trump has made very
Trump wants one and Trump has made very clear that if the ukrainians don't
clear that if the ukrainians don't
clear that if the ukrainians don't accept his deal he's going to cut off
accept his deal he's going to cut off
accept his deal he's going to cut off support and if the Russians don't accept
support and if the Russians don't accept
support and if the Russians don't accept his deal he's going to increase
his deal he's going to increase
his deal he's going to increase sanctions dramatically so I do think
sanctions dramatically so I do think
sanctions dramatically so I do think that over the course of the year we are
that over the course of the year we are
that over the course of the year we are likely to get a ceasefire now 2 point
likely to get a ceasefire now 2 point
likely to get a ceasefire now 2 point around that the first is before the
around that the first is before the
around that the first is before the ceasefire is actually Inked there's a
ceasefire is actually Inked there's a
ceasefire is actually Inked there's a lot of risk because the ukrainians are
lot of risk because the ukrainians are
lot of risk because the ukrainians are desperate and they want to be in a
desperate and they want to be in a
desperate and they want to be in a better position with more leverage so
better position with more leverage so
better position with more leverage so that's why you've got a new offensive in
that's why you've got a new offensive in
that's why you've got a new offensive in kers inside Russia by the ukrainians
kers inside Russia by the ukrainians
kers inside Russia by the ukrainians which they can hardly afford right now
which they can hardly afford right now
which they can hardly afford right now militarily they also are continuing to
militarily they also are continuing to
militarily they also are continuing to use American Rockets like attacks to hit
use American Rockets like attacks to hit
use American Rockets like attacks to hit Russian targets deeper into their
Russian targets deeper into their
Russian targets deeper into their territory assassination attempt and the
territory assassination attempt and the
territory assassination attempt and the rest Russia launching more missiles into
rest Russia launching more missiles into
rest Russia launching more missiles into Kiev into other uh cities civilian
Kiev into other uh cities civilian
Kiev into other uh cities civilian targets critical infrastructure energy
targets critical infrastructure energy
targets critical infrastructure energy infrastructure and of course all sorts
infrastructure and of course all sorts
infrastructure and of course all sorts of asymmetrical attacks against NATO
of asymmetrical attacks against NATO
of asymmetrical attacks against NATO allies so that is going to get worse
allies so that is going to get worse
allies so that is going to get worse before we have a ceasefire so there's a
before we have a ceasefire so there's a
before we have a ceasefire so there's a lot of risk around that even once we
lot of risk around that even once we
lot of risk around that even once we have a ceasefire that ceasefire is not a
have a ceasefire that ceasefire is not a
have a ceasefire that ceasefire is not a negotiated settlement which means the
negotiated settlement which means the
negotiated settlement which means the ukrainians are still arming up and
ukrainians are still arming up and
ukrainians are still arming up and building up and the Russians are too and
building up and the Russians are too and
building up and the Russians are too and the Europeans feel like that is a big
the Europeans feel like that is a big
the Europeans feel like that is a big risk to them so I fully expect that
risk to them so I fully expect that
risk to them so I fully expect that sanctions on Russia will stay in place I
sanctions on Russia will stay in place I
sanctions on Russia will stay in place I I fully expect that the freezing of
I fully expect that the freezing of
I fully expect that the freezing of hundreds of billions of Russian
hundreds of billions of Russian
hundreds of billions of Russian Sovereign dollars uh assets euros and
Sovereign dollars uh assets euros and
Sovereign dollars uh assets euros and the rest um will be used to rebuild
the rest um will be used to rebuild
the rest um will be used to rebuild Ukraine and that's unacceptable to
Ukraine and that's unacceptable to
Ukraine and that's unacceptable to Russia and they'll still be engaged in a
Russia and they'll still be engaged in a
Russia and they'll still be engaged in a proxy war against fr line NATO States
proxy war against fr line NATO States
proxy war against fr line NATO States like Poland and the bals and the nordics
like Poland and the bals and the nordics
like Poland and the bals and the nordics um they'll still use telegram to pay off
um they'll still use telegram to pay off
um they'll still use telegram to pay off locals to engage in arson attacks uh and
locals to engage in arson attacks uh and
locals to engage in arson attacks uh and vandalism and even assassination
vandalism and even assassination
vandalism and even assassination attempts so this is I mean Russia is the
attempts so this is I mean Russia is the
attempts so this is I mean Russia is the most powerful Rogue state in the world
most powerful Rogue state in the world
most powerful Rogue state in the world it is an ally of North Korea uh and Iran
it is an ally of North Korea uh and Iran
it is an ally of North Korea uh and Iran these are chaos actors on the global
these are chaos actors on the global
these are chaos actors on the global stage and they are absolutely producing
stage and they are absolutely producing
stage and they are absolutely producing a lot of risk and instability
a lot of risk and instability
a lot of risk and instability um Ukraine the war in Ukraine 3 years on
um Ukraine the war in Ukraine 3 years on
um Ukraine the war in Ukraine 3 years on should be heading towards a ceasefire so
should be heading towards a ceasefire so
should be heading towards a ceasefire so I think there will be less Ukraine in
I think there will be less Ukraine in
I think there will be less Ukraine in the headlines once that ceasefire is in
the headlines once that ceasefire is in
the headlines once that ceasefire is in place so let me just make sure that I'm
place so let me just make sure that I'm
place so let me just make sure that I'm understanding something because in that
understanding something because in that
understanding something because in that you describe Trump basically saying I
you describe Trump basically saying I
you describe Trump basically saying I want to cease fire and so that's what
want to cease fire and so that's what
want to cease fire and so that's what needs to happen doesn't that imply that
needs to happen doesn't that imply that
needs to happen doesn't that imply that America still does have the power and
America still does have the power and
America still does have the power and the sway and the influence that it once
the sway and the influence that it once
the sway and the influence that it once had or how does this how does that
had or how does this how does that
had or how does this how does that ladder back up to the idea of this being
ladder back up to the idea of this being
ladder back up to the idea of this being a gzero world I I think that the United
a gzero world I I think that the United
a gzero world I I think that the United States has an enormous amount of power
States has an enormous amount of power
States has an enormous amount of power but the big difference is this is Trump
but the big difference is this is Trump
but the big difference is this is Trump saying this unilaterally right I mean
saying this unilaterally right I mean
saying this unilaterally right I mean he's the one that is deciding um that
he's the one that is deciding um that
he's the one that is deciding um that there is going to be an outcome that he
there is going to be an outcome that he
there is going to be an outcome that he wants um and it's not like he's
wants um and it's not like he's
wants um and it's not like he's coordinating with NATO allies and saying
coordinating with NATO allies and saying
coordinating with NATO allies and saying we all have to sit down and make sure
we all have to sit down and make sure
we all have to sit down and make sure that we're Consolidated one of the
that we're Consolidated one of the
that we're Consolidated one of the interesting things I mean Biden did do
interesting things I mean Biden did do
interesting things I mean Biden did do that well in getting the ukrainians to
that well in getting the ukrainians to
that well in getting the ukrainians to the negotiating table he failed at that
the negotiating table he failed at that
the negotiating table he failed at that what Biden did well was ensuring that
what Biden did well was ensuring that
what Biden did well was ensuring that NATO was in lock step on policy every
NATO was in lock step on policy every
NATO was in lock step on policy every step of the way on sanctions on
step of the way on sanctions on
step of the way on sanctions on armaments for the ukrainians on
armaments for the ukrainians on
armaments for the ukrainians on intelligence sharing the rest uh Trump
intelligence sharing the rest uh Trump
intelligence sharing the rest uh Trump is not going to do that Trump wants to
is not going to do that Trump wants to
is not going to do that Trump wants to end Wars he wants to end wars in the
end Wars he wants to end wars in the
end Wars he wants to end wars in the Middle East he wants to get the
Middle East he wants to get the
Middle East he wants to get the Americans out he wants to end the war
Americans out he wants to end the war
Americans out he wants to end the war between Russia Ukraine he wants to get
between Russia Ukraine he wants to get
between Russia Ukraine he wants to get the Americans out um just like he did in
the Americans out um just like he did in
the Americans out um just like he did in Afghanistan I mean Afghanistan reflects
Afghanistan I mean Afghanistan reflects
Afghanistan I mean Afghanistan reflects a g0o now the United States I support
a g0o now the United States I support
a g0o now the United States I support ending the war in Afghanistan not that
ending the war in Afghanistan not that
ending the war in Afghanistan not that we care about what I want or don't want
we care about what I want or don't want
we care about what I want or don't want I mean the Americans had spent over a
I mean the Americans had spent over a
I mean the Americans had spent over a trillion dollars enormous numbers of
trillion dollars enormous numbers of
trillion dollars enormous numbers of lives that were lost since the US has
lives that were lost since the US has
lives that were lost since the US has left Afghanistan that hasn't happened
left Afghanistan that hasn't happened
left Afghanistan that hasn't happened but there's a power vacuum in
but there's a power vacuum in
but there's a power vacuum in Afghanistan it's not like anyone else
Afghanistan it's not like anyone else
Afghanistan it's not like anyone else has come in to try to provide any level
has come in to try to provide any level
has come in to try to provide any level of stability in that country and never
of stability in that country and never
of stability in that country and never mind just for the Afghans themselves but
mind just for the Afghans themselves but
mind just for the Afghans themselves but also exporting drugs and instability and
also exporting drugs and instability and
also exporting drugs and instability and all the like that that is what we are
all the like that that is what we are
all the like that that is what we are going to see coming from all over the
going to see coming from all over the
going to see coming from all over the place as a consequence of the United
place as a consequence of the United
place as a consequence of the United States that is saying not it you know
States that is saying not it you know
States that is saying not it you know we're focused on ourselves and we're
we're focused on ourselves and we're
we're focused on ourselves and we're going to get you know cut unilateral
going to get you know cut unilateral
going to get you know cut unilateral deals and you know the Allies you're
deals and you know the Allies you're
deals and you know the Allies you're gonna have to listen us I see so it's
gonna have to listen us I see so it's
gonna have to listen us I see so it's the unilateral nature of this and it's
the unilateral nature of this and it's
the unilateral nature of this and it's the kind of self-absorbed self-involved
the kind of self-absorbed self-involved
the kind of self-absorbed self-involved self-facing nature of the of the power
self-facing nature of the of the power
self-facing nature of the of the power that is different from that kind of
that is different from that kind of
that is different from that kind of collaborative allies Allied axis that we
collaborative allies Allied axis that we
collaborative allies Allied axis that we used to we used to know in years past
used to we used to know in years past
used to we used to know in years past that's right the United States is not
that's right the United States is not
that's right the United States is not becoming
becoming
becoming isolationist the United States is
isolationist the United States is
isolationist the United States is increasingly becoming transactional so
increasingly becoming transactional so
increasingly becoming transactional so if you think about what American
if you think about what American
if you think about what American exceptionalism was and frankly what
exceptionalism was and frankly what
exceptionalism was and frankly what globalism was to a degree it was the
globalism was to a degree it was the
globalism was to a degree it was the United States saying we support Global
United States saying we support Global
United States saying we support Global rule of law multilateralism and all of
rule of law multilateralism and all of
rule of law multilateralism and all of these institutions that we built up and
these institutions that we built up and
these institutions that we built up and we want you to to actually abide by
we want you to to actually abide by
we want you to to actually abide by those rules all of us together and by
those rules all of us together and by
those rules all of us together and by the way China your dictatorship and your
the way China your dictatorship and your
the way China your dictatorship and your not free market economy we're going to
not free market economy we're going to
not free market economy we're going to bring you into our institutions and
bring you into our institutions and
bring you into our institutions and we're going to expect that you're going
we're going to expect that you're going
we're going to expect that you're going to be behaving by those rules too so we
to be behaving by those rules too so we
to be behaving by those rules too so we want you to be responsible stakeholders
want you to be responsible stakeholders
want you to be responsible stakeholders now that last bet didn't work the
now that last bet didn't work the
now that last bet didn't work the Chinese got rich but they didn't become
Chinese got rich but they didn't become
Chinese got rich but they didn't become responsible Stak holders they didn't
responsible Stak holders they didn't
responsible Stak holders they didn't become Democratic they didn't become
become Democratic they didn't become
become Democratic they didn't become free market they didn't support rule of
free market they didn't support rule of
free market they didn't support rule of law what's really interesting is that
law what's really interesting is that
law what's really interesting is that the United States has instead move
the United States has instead move
the United States has instead move towards a more Chinese model in other
towards a more Chinese model in other
towards a more Chinese model in other words the United States is increasingly
words the United States is increasingly
words the United States is increasingly saying we don't care about these
saying we don't care about these
saying we don't care about these multilateral institutions we're not
multilateral institutions we're not
multilateral institutions we're not going to support the United Nations the
going to support the United Nations the
going to support the United Nations the the the United States might well stop
the the United States might well stop
the the United States might well stop paying its dues to the UN I mean
paying its dues to the UN I mean
paying its dues to the UN I mean certainly on the back of Elise stefanic
certainly on the back of Elise stefanic
certainly on the back of Elise stefanic um and the appointment of ambassador to
um and the appointment of ambassador to
um and the appointment of ambassador to the United Nations that appears to be
the United Nations that appears to be
the United Nations that appears to be the trajectory the Trump has said he
the trajectory the Trump has said he
the trajectory the Trump has said he wants to pull out of the World Health
wants to pull out of the World Health
wants to pull out of the World Health Organization um he's said you know Paris
Organization um he's said you know Paris
Organization um he's said you know Paris climate Accord out again right I mean
climate Accord out again right I mean
climate Accord out again right I mean the US is not interested in that the US
the US is not interested in that the US
the US is not interested in that the US is interested in in focusing on its own
is interested in in focusing on its own
is interested in in focusing on its own power its own priorities and other
power its own priorities and other
power its own priorities and other countries have to like it or lump it uh
countries have to like it or lump it uh
countries have to like it or lump it uh and so that's it's a radically different
and so that's it's a radically different
and so that's it's a radically different environment than a us-led global order
environment than a us-led global order
environment than a us-led global order that that is not there's no Global Order
that that is not there's no Global Order
that that is not there's no Global Order that's being led by the US it's a us-led
that's being led by the US it's a us-led
that's being led by the US it's a us-led us and and a China China and everybody
us and and a China China and everybody
us and and a China China and everybody else trying to hope they don't have to
else trying to hope they don't have to
else trying to hope they don't have to play sides you know and just on defense
play sides you know and just on defense
play sides you know and just on defense everyone playing defense okay let's talk
everyone playing defense okay let's talk
everyone playing defense okay let's talk about another geopolitical power that is
about another geopolitical power that is
about another geopolitical power that is hugely important always and that is Iran
hugely important always and that is Iran
hugely important always and that is Iran which in your view has gotten weaker
which in your view has gotten weaker
which in your view has gotten weaker over the last year or so obviously we've
over the last year or so obviously we've
over the last year or so obviously we've been seeing the war playing out in Gaza
been seeing the war playing out in Gaza
been seeing the war playing out in Gaza we've been seeing um Hezbollah was um
we've been seeing um Hezbollah was um
we've been seeing um Hezbollah was um has been weakened considerably in in
has been weakened considerably in in
has been weakened considerably in in Lebanon but what do you make of what's
Lebanon but what do you make of what's
Lebanon but what do you make of what's going on in Iran and what should be we
going on in Iran and what should be we
going on in Iran and what should be we be watching for in terms of risks uh I
be watching for in terms of risks uh I
be watching for in terms of risks uh I think Iran this year has become the most
think Iran this year has become the most
think Iran this year has become the most important Middle East risk as opposed to
important Middle East risk as opposed to
important Middle East risk as opposed to last year when we were focused on Gaza
last year when we were focused on Gaza
last year when we were focused on Gaza and the expansion of that war West Bank
and the expansion of that war West Bank
and the expansion of that war West Bank Lebanon Hezbollah um those Wars are
Lebanon Hezbollah um those Wars are
Lebanon Hezbollah um those Wars are going to be winding down um and Trump
going to be winding down um and Trump
going to be winding down um and Trump wants them uh to wind down and frankly
wants them uh to wind down and frankly
wants them uh to wind down and frankly the Israelis have accomplished most uh
the Israelis have accomplished most uh
the Israelis have accomplished most uh of what they have wanted to accomplish
of what they have wanted to accomplish
of what they have wanted to accomplish in them and they're the ones that are
in them and they're the ones that are
in them and they're the ones that are determining dictating how the war is
determining dictating how the war is
determining dictating how the war is being fought the wars are being fought
being fought the wars are being fought
being fought the wars are being fought because they have dominance in military
because they have dominance in military
because they have dominance in military escalation and capabilities Iran um is
escalation and capabilities Iran um is
escalation and capabilities Iran um is Israel's principal adversary in the
Israel's principal adversary in the
Israel's principal adversary in the region America's principal adversary in
region America's principal adversary in
region America's principal adversary in the region but they are at a historic
the region but they are at a historic
the region but they are at a historic weak point um post Revolution they've as
weak point um post Revolution they've as
weak point um post Revolution they've as you say
you say
you say lost uh their empire their their axis of
lost uh their empire their their axis of
lost uh their empire their their axis of resistance I mean you know Yemen and the
resistance I mean you know Yemen and the
resistance I mean you know Yemen and the houthis uh which was the most autonomous
houthis uh which was the most autonomous
houthis uh which was the most autonomous of the groups are still doing okay um
of the groups are still doing okay um
of the groups are still doing okay um but Assad is gone which means they can't
but Assad is gone which means they can't
but Assad is gone which means they can't get weapons to Lebanon um Hezbollah is
get weapons to Lebanon um Hezbollah is
get weapons to Lebanon um Hezbollah is basically gone and their leadership has
basically gone and their leadership has
basically gone and their leadership has been destroyed Hamas is gone um Islamic
been destroyed Hamas is gone um Islamic
been destroyed Hamas is gone um Islamic Jihad Palestinian Islamic Jihad in a lot
Jihad Palestinian Islamic Jihad in a lot
Jihad Palestinian Islamic Jihad in a lot of trouble um and so if you you are Iran
of trouble um and so if you you are Iran
of trouble um and so if you you are Iran um you know that you can't rely on your
um you know that you can't rely on your
um you know that you can't rely on your Regional strategy
Regional strategy
Regional strategy anymore uh they also have a lot of
anymore uh they also have a lot of
anymore uh they also have a lot of domestic problems their economy is doing
domestic problems their economy is doing
domestic problems their economy is doing horribly and Trump coming in is going to
horribly and Trump coming in is going to
horribly and Trump coming in is going to increase the pressure to prevent all of
increase the pressure to prevent all of
increase the pressure to prevent all of these uh non-flag tankers from getting
these uh non-flag tankers from getting
these uh non-flag tankers from getting out um and allowing the Iranians to sell
out um and allowing the Iranians to sell
out um and allowing the Iranians to sell their oil illegally so uh the economic
their oil illegally so uh the economic
their oil illegally so uh the economic situation which is already in freef Fall
situation which is already in freef Fall
situation which is already in freef Fall with lots of um you know energy shortage
with lots of um you know energy shortage
with lots of um you know energy shortage and also some of the worst air pollution
and also some of the worst air pollution
and also some of the worst air pollution in the world because they have to burn
in the world because they have to burn
in the world because they have to burn anything they can find um is going to
anything they can find um is going to
anything they can find um is going to get much worse this reminds me of the
get much worse this reminds me of the
get much worse this reminds me of the Soviet Union in about 1989 when they
Soviet Union in about 1989 when they
Soviet Union in about 1989 when they lost the East block and suddenly the
lost the East block and suddenly the
lost the East block and suddenly the people in the Soviet Union saw the
people in the Soviet Union saw the
people in the Soviet Union saw the emperor had no close uh and that the
emperor had no close uh and that the
emperor had no close uh and that the system wasn't working now the Iranians
system wasn't working now the Iranians
system wasn't working now the Iranians have the capacity to engage in a lot of
have the capacity to engage in a lot of
have the capacity to engage in a lot of domestic repression but the Supreme
domestic repression but the Supreme
domestic repression but the Supreme Leader's 85 years old he's not well he
Leader's 85 years old he's not well he
Leader's 85 years old he's not well he has not picked a clear successor
has not picked a clear successor
has not picked a clear successor um and there are also insurgencies
um and there are also insurgencies
um and there are also insurgencies including with ethnic minorities in Iran
including with ethnic minorities in Iran
including with ethnic minorities in Iran in places like sistan and bistan so I
in places like sistan and bistan so I
in places like sistan and bistan so I mean frankly I don't think that Iran is
mean frankly I don't think that Iran is
mean frankly I don't think that Iran is on the precipice of implosion but they
on the precipice of implosion but they
on the precipice of implosion but they are heading there and the Americans and
are heading there and the Americans and
are heading there and the Americans and the Israelis may be interested in
the Israelis may be interested in
the Israelis may be interested in helping them get there um I mean Israel
helping them get there um I mean Israel
helping them get there um I mean Israel certainly sees this as a unique
certainly sees this as a unique
certainly sees this as a unique opportunity to take care of their Iran
opportunity to take care of their Iran
opportunity to take care of their Iran business now they can do a lot they can
business now they can do a lot they can
business now they can do a lot they can hit them with iage cyber um critical
hit them with iage cyber um critical
hit them with iage cyber um critical infrastructure they could take out some
infrastructure they could take out some
infrastructure they could take out some of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corp
of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corp
of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corp what they can't do by themselves is take
what they can't do by themselves is take
what they can't do by themselves is take out the nuclear capabilities they need
out the nuclear capabilities they need
out the nuclear capabilities they need American Military capacity for that and
American Military capacity for that and
American Military capacity for that and so the question is Will trump help and
so the question is Will trump help and
so the question is Will trump help and there are those in the incoming Trump
there are those in the incoming Trump
there are those in the incoming Trump Administration that thinks that's
Administration that thinks that's
Administration that thinks that's exactly what Trump should do not clear I
exactly what Trump should do not clear I
exactly what Trump should do not clear I I suspect he doesn't want to risk
I suspect he doesn't want to risk
I suspect he doesn't want to risk Another War um that could lead oil
Another War um that could lead oil
Another War um that could lead oil prices to get higher impact the global
prices to get higher impact the global
prices to get higher impact the global Marketplace I suspect he's going to hit
Marketplace I suspect he's going to hit
Marketplace I suspect he's going to hit the Iranians hard and see what kind of a
the Iranians hard and see what kind of a
the Iranians hard and see what kind of a deal might be cut by them so there's a
deal might be cut by them so there's a
deal might be cut by them so there's a possibility that you know a much tougher
possibility that you know a much tougher
possibility that you know a much tougher relationship with Iran creates more risk
relationship with Iran creates more risk
relationship with Iran creates more risk But ultimately creates a deal and Trump
But ultimately creates a deal and Trump
But ultimately creates a deal and Trump gets a Nobel Peace Prize I wouldn't bet
gets a Nobel Peace Prize I wouldn't bet
gets a Nobel Peace Prize I wouldn't bet on that I think it's unlikely the
on that I think it's unlikely the
on that I think it's unlikely the Iranians and a trump Administration will
Iranians and a trump Administration will
Iranians and a trump Administration will come to an agreement it's more likely
come to an agreement it's more likely
come to an agreement it's more likely that we're heading towards direct
that we're heading towards direct
that we're heading towards direct confrontation
confrontation
confrontation let's change Tac just a little bit so
let's change Tac just a little bit so
let's change Tac just a little bit so you and I have talked very directly
you and I have talked very directly
you and I have talked very directly about the need for regulation of
about the need for regulation of
about the need for regulation of artificial intelligence and you actually
artificial intelligence and you actually
artificial intelligence and you actually have been working very directly and very
have been working very directly and very
have been working very directly and very specifically on just that topic and yet
specifically on just that topic and yet
specifically on just that topic and yet you still have ai Unbound on your list
you still have ai Unbound on your list
you still have ai Unbound on your list of risks so does that mean that
of risks so does that mean that
of risks so does that mean that regulation is not coming for AI or where
regulation is not coming for AI or where
regulation is not coming for AI or where do you think we are with that and what
do you think we are with that and what
do you think we are with that and what do you think we should be watching for
do you think we should be watching for
do you think we should be watching for yeah Helen that's pretty much what it
yeah Helen that's pretty much what it
yeah Helen that's pretty much what it means uh it means that the efforts at
means uh it means that the efforts at
means uh it means that the efforts at regulation have been going a lot slower
regulation have been going a lot slower
regulation have been going a lot slower than the technological build not
than the technological build not
than the technological build not surprising given how extraordinary the
surprising given how extraordinary the
surprising given how extraordinary the technology is and just how much money is
technology is and just how much money is
technology is and just how much money is going into it and also that some of the
going into it and also that some of the
going into it and also that some of the regulation in place is actually going
regulation in place is actually going
regulation in place is actually going away or is eroding um the uh United
away or is eroding um the uh United
away or is eroding um the uh United Kingdom last year put their flag uh in
Kingdom last year put their flag uh in
Kingdom last year put their flag uh in the AI landscape by saying that they
the AI landscape by saying that they
the AI landscape by saying that they were going to host every year an AI
were going to host every year an AI
were going to host every year an AI safety Summit that's how they really
safety Summit that's how they really
safety Summit that's how they really wanted to make sure that everyone was
wanted to make sure that everyone was
wanted to make sure that everyone was paying attention to the UK they just
paying attention to the UK they just
paying attention to the UK they just rebranded it this year's is going to be
rebranded it this year's is going to be
rebranded it this year's is going to be called the AI action Summit tells you a
called the AI action Summit tells you a
called the AI action Summit tells you a lot they don't want to be left behind
lot they don't want to be left behind
lot they don't want to be left behind they want to make sure that they're
they want to make sure that they're
they want to make sure that they're competitive and they're building more
competitive and they're building more
competitive and they're building more capacity the EU feeling the same way the
capacity the EU feeling the same way the
capacity the EU feeling the same way the French feeling the same way really
French feeling the same way really
French feeling the same way really wanting to help their own nent unicorns
wanting to help their own nent unicorns
wanting to help their own nent unicorns and not
and not
and not overregulation probably going to end um
overregulation probably going to end um
overregulation probably going to end um the resend the uh executive order by
the resend the uh executive order by
the resend the uh executive order by Biden with the heads of the seven
Biden with the heads of the seven
Biden with the heads of the seven systemically important us AI companies
systemically important us AI companies
systemically important us AI companies uh he'll probably also stop the nent us
uh he'll probably also stop the nent us
uh he'll probably also stop the nent us Chinese um AI dialogue that was hoped
Chinese um AI dialogue that was hoped
Chinese um AI dialogue that was hoped over time would try to reduce the
over time would try to reduce the
over time would try to reduce the potential for an AI arms race of the
potential for an AI arms race of the
potential for an AI arms race of the kind that we had with the Soviets on
kind that we had with the Soviets on
kind that we had with the Soviets on nuclear weapons in the early Cold War um
nuclear weapons in the early Cold War um
nuclear weapons in the early Cold War um the US European trade and Technology
the US European trade and Technology
the US European trade and Technology Council likely to be Unwound under Trump
Council likely to be Unwound under Trump
Council likely to be Unwound under Trump so all of these early stage efforts that
so all of these early stage efforts that
so all of these early stage efforts that were not moving fast enough um are
were not moving fast enough um are
were not moving fast enough um are probably not going to be with us
probably not going to be with us
probably not going to be with us effectively for long um in addition to
effectively for long um in addition to
effectively for long um in addition to that uh we are already seeing that the
that uh we are already seeing that the
that uh we are already seeing that the advances in this technology and you know
advances in this technology and you know
advances in this technology and you know that I'm an Enthusiast for AI I believe
that I'm an Enthusiast for AI I believe
that I'm an Enthusiast for AI I believe that you know incredible human capital
that you know incredible human capital
that you know incredible human capital will be unlocked extraordinary
will be unlocked extraordinary
will be unlocked extraordinary industrial use cases in every sector
industrial use cases in every sector
industrial use cases in every sector around the world but I also see people
around the world but I also see people
around the world but I also see people Bad actors that are capable of using uh
Bad actors that are capable of using uh
Bad actors that are capable of using uh this AI in ways that are dangerous um
this AI in ways that are dangerous um
this AI in ways that are dangerous um and I'll give you example Le I mean you
and I'll give you example Le I mean you
and I'll give you example Le I mean you look at um meta and their open- Source
look at um meta and their open- Source
look at um meta and their open- Source llama chatbot and there are a lot of
llama chatbot and there are a lot of
llama chatbot and there are a lot of people out there that are basically
people out there that are basically
people out there that are basically re-engineering llama uh so that it
re-engineering llama uh so that it
re-engineering llama uh so that it doesn't adhere um to the constraints um
doesn't adhere um to the constraints um
doesn't adhere um to the constraints um the uh if you will the the the ideology
the uh if you will the the the ideology
the uh if you will the the the ideology of meta but what some would also say
of meta but what some would also say
of meta but what some would also say would be the safety um of meta and and
would be the safety um of meta and and
would be the safety um of meta and and some of my people have downloaded those
some of my people have downloaded those
some of my people have downloaded those on their laptops and started using it
on their laptops and started using it
on their laptops and started using it just what you can do and they've gotten
just what you can do and they've gotten
just what you can do and they've gotten the AI bot to explain how to use arsenic
the AI bot to explain how to use arsenic
the AI bot to explain how to use arsenic to assassinate someone to help them
to assassinate someone to help them
to assassinate someone to help them figure out how you would Target and kill
figure out how you would Target and kill
figure out how you would Target and kill a major CEO of a company now I mean we
a major CEO of a company now I mean we
a major CEO of a company now I mean we we're not doing that obviously but lots
we're not doing that obviously but lots
we're not doing that obviously but lots of people are um and that is not
of people are um and that is not
of people are um and that is not sustainable so I mean the extraordinary
sustainable so I mean the extraordinary
sustainable so I mean the extraordinary capabilities of these
capabilities of these
capabilities of these Technologies the the unfettered comp
Technologies the the unfettered comp
Technologies the the unfettered comp competition which is driving so much
competition which is driving so much
competition which is driving so much compute and energy use and capital and
compute and energy use and capital and
compute and energy use and capital and Entrepreneurship from the Americans from
Entrepreneurship from the Americans from
Entrepreneurship from the Americans from the Chinese and from others is not being
the Chinese and from others is not being
the Chinese and from others is not being met by anywhere close to an adequate
met by anywhere close to an adequate
met by anywhere close to an adequate regulatory environment and that means
regulatory environment and that means
regulatory environment and that means that we're only going to figure out you
that we're only going to figure out you
that we're only going to figure out you know where things break when they break
know where things break when they break
know where things break when they break uh and we are heading in that direction
uh and we are heading in that direction
uh and we are heading in that direction right so it's going to take some in
right so it's going to take some in
right so it's going to take some in intense catastrophe for people to start
intense catastrophe for people to start
intense catastrophe for people to start to take that seriously and as we know
to take that seriously and as we know
to take that seriously and as we know with gun control maybe not even take it
with gun control maybe not even take it
with gun control maybe not even take it seriously then that's probably right all
seriously then that's probably right all
seriously then that's probably right all right now this is Ted Ian we are not
right now this is Ted Ian we are not
right now this is Ted Ian we are not just about risks we all appreciate that
just about risks we all appreciate that
just about risks we all appreciate that you came here and you have detailed the
you came here and you have detailed the
you came here and you have detailed the top risks but I have to turn it on its
top risks but I have to turn it on its
top risks but I have to turn it on its head if you don't mind just for the last
head if you don't mind just for the last
head if you don't mind just for the last question because we love those who are
question because we love those who are
question because we love those who are looking for Solutions not just detailing
looking for Solutions not just detailing
looking for Solutions not just detailing the problems and I asked you this last
the problems and I asked you this last
the problems and I asked you this last time when we went through the risks of
time when we went through the risks of
time when we went through the risks of 2024 and so I have to ask you again what
2024 and so I have to ask you again what
2024 and so I have to ask you again what or who or where are the bright spots
or who or where are the bright spots
or who or where are the bright spots what gives you hope in 2025 well I mean
what gives you hope in 2025 well I mean
what gives you hope in 2025 well I mean first of all taking away the
first of all taking away the
first of all taking away the geopolitics the technology is a bright
geopolitics the technology is a bright
geopolitics the technology is a bright spot um the technology for AI the
spot um the technology for AI the
spot um the technology for AI the technology uh for sustainable energy uh
technology uh for sustainable energy uh
technology uh for sustainable energy uh I mean I I don't care uh if the US pulls
I mean I I don't care uh if the US pulls
I mean I I don't care uh if the US pulls out of Paris climate Accord and Trump
out of Paris climate Accord and Trump
out of Paris climate Accord and Trump says he's not going to subsidize
says he's not going to subsidize
says he's not going to subsidize electric vehicles anymore and he wants
electric vehicles anymore and he wants
electric vehicles anymore and he wants to help fossil fuels all of that is not
to help fossil fuels all of that is not
to help fossil fuels all of that is not going to stop an extraordinary
going to stop an extraordinary
going to stop an extraordinary transition to postc carbon energies
transition to postc carbon energies
transition to postc carbon energies which the Chinese are leading on
which the Chinese are leading on
which the Chinese are leading on globally and they may extend that lead
globally and they may extend that lead
globally and they may extend that lead um but I mean they're going to be carbon
um but I mean they're going to be carbon
um but I mean they're going to be carbon neutral a lot faster than
neutral a lot faster than
neutral a lot faster than 2030 um and a lot faster than they
2030 um and a lot faster than they
2030 um and a lot faster than they expected now some of that's because
expected now some of that's because
expected now some of that's because their econom is not doing that well but
their econom is not doing that well but
their econom is not doing that well but some of that is because the price of
some of that is because the price of
some of that is because the price of these Technologies at scale has been
these Technologies at scale has been
these Technologies at scale has been going down down down you know I mean
going down down down you know I mean
going down down down you know I mean following Moors law basically um so
following Moors law basically um so
following Moors law basically um so that's extraordinary I love the idea
that's extraordinary I love the idea
that's extraordinary I love the idea that in 20 to 30 years we're going to
that in 20 to 30 years we're going to
that in 20 to 30 years we're going to have sustainable abundant inexpensive
have sustainable abundant inexpensive
have sustainable abundant inexpensive energy for the world that's that's
energy for the world that's that's
energy for the world that's that's pretty exciting um I love the idea that
pretty exciting um I love the idea that
pretty exciting um I love the idea that um the use cases for AI every day are
um the use cases for AI every day are
um the use cases for AI every day are becoming more and more Earth changing
becoming more and more Earth changing
becoming more and more Earth changing and that will reduce waste that will
and that will reduce waste that will
and that will reduce waste that will allow us to better measure things around
allow us to better measure things around
allow us to better measure things around the world and when you measure them you
the world and when you measure them you
the world and when you measure them you can manage them when you manage them um
can manage them when you manage them um
can manage them when you manage them um you can improve upon them uh that's I
you can improve upon them uh that's I
you can improve upon them uh that's I mean we haven't had good real-time data
mean we haven't had good real-time data
mean we haven't had good real-time data on our world on our economy on our
on our world on our economy on our
on our world on our economy on our environment AI will give us that um and
environment AI will give us that um and
environment AI will give us that um and that will allow us to more efficiently
that will allow us to more efficiently
that will allow us to more efficiently use the resources the scarce resources
use the resources the scarce resources
use the resources the scarce resources that we've been blessed with so I'm a
that we've been blessed with so I'm a
that we've been blessed with so I'm a big
big
big Enthusiast about the Technologies as is
Enthusiast about the Technologies as is
Enthusiast about the Technologies as is Ted um but those aren't geopolitical
Ted um but those aren't geopolitical
Ted um but those aren't geopolitical upsides the geopolitical upsides I I'll
upsides the geopolitical upsides I I'll
upsides the geopolitical upsides I I'll give you a couple um
give you a couple um
give you a couple um one is that Trump is not going to be a
one is that Trump is not going to be a
one is that Trump is not going to be a failure the fact that Trump has such a
failure the fact that Trump has such a
failure the fact that Trump has such a strong position does mean that other
strong position does mean that other
strong position does mean that other countries will want to give him WIS and
countries will want to give him WIS and
countries will want to give him WIS and that is stabilizing where those winds
that is stabilizing where those winds
that is stabilizing where those winds occur so I mentioned that cloudia shine
occur so I mentioned that cloudia shine
occur so I mentioned that cloudia shine bomb is going to do everything possible
bomb is going to do everything possible
bomb is going to do everything possible to find a way to fix the relationship
to find a way to fix the relationship
to find a way to fix the relationship that Trump thinks is broken it may take
that Trump thinks is broken it may take
that Trump thinks is broken it may take her longer than she wants I think she
her longer than she wants I think she
her longer than she wants I think she will get there uh the Europeans and the
will get there uh the Europeans and the
will get there uh the Europeans and the Americans may get into a tit fortat
Americans may get into a tit fortat
Americans may get into a tit fortat tariff War but I also think they're
tariff War but I also think they're
tariff War but I also think they're going to work more closely on
going to work more closely on
going to work more closely on coordinating some policies on China I
coordinating some policies on China I
coordinating some policies on China I think they'll work more closely the
think they'll work more closely the
think they'll work more closely the Europeans will buy more natural gas from
Europeans will buy more natural gas from
Europeans will buy more natural gas from the United States there is a desire to
the United States there is a desire to
the United States there is a desire to get a deal done that's not going to work
get a deal done that's not going to work
get a deal done that's not going to work everywhere I don't think it'll work on
everywhere I don't think it'll work on
everywhere I don't think it'll work on China I don't think it'll work on Iran I
China I don't think it'll work on Iran I
China I don't think it'll work on Iran I don't think it'll fix the Russia
don't think it'll fix the Russia
don't think it'll fix the Russia conflict but where it does work it will
conflict but where it does work it will
conflict but where it does work it will be meaningful and you want the president
be meaningful and you want the president
be meaningful and you want the president of the United States to have some wins I
of the United States to have some wins I
of the United States to have some wins I mean at the end of the day he's the most
mean at the end of the day he's the most
mean at the end of the day he's the most powerful leader of any country in the
powerful leader of any country in the
powerful leader of any country in the world that's important
world that's important
world that's important secondarily one place I strongly
secondarily one place I strongly
secondarily one place I strongly disagree with Trump trump believes that
disagree with Trump trump believes that
disagree with Trump trump believes that a strong Europe is bad for the United
a strong Europe is bad for the United
a strong Europe is bad for the United States in a gzero world I think a strong
States in a gzero world I think a strong
States in a gzero world I think a strong Europe is good for the United States
Europe is good for the United States
Europe is good for the United States it's good for global stability and it's
it's good for global stability and it's
it's good for global stability and it's also good longterm for keeping American
also good longterm for keeping American
also good longterm for keeping American adversaries at Bay um Trump is
adversaries at Bay um Trump is
adversaries at Bay um Trump is supporting an Elon Musk particular is
supporting an Elon Musk particular is
supporting an Elon Musk particular is supporting all of these euroskeptic
supporting all of these euroskeptic
supporting all of these euroskeptic movements the Reform Party um in the UK
movements the Reform Party um in the UK
movements the Reform Party um in the UK the alternatives for deuts land um in
the alternatives for deuts land um in
the alternatives for deuts land um in Germany I suspect soon the national
Germany I suspect soon the national
Germany I suspect soon the national rally in France though he hasn't spoken
rally in France though he hasn't spoken
rally in France though he hasn't spoken about it yet now that macron's coming
about it yet now that macron's coming
about it yet now that macron's coming after me probably will the good news is
after me probably will the good news is
after me probably will the good news is that I don't think it matters I think
that I don't think it matters I think
that I don't think it matters I think that Europe is going to continue to
that Europe is going to continue to
that Europe is going to continue to stand up in 2025 it might even get
stand up in 2025 it might even get
stand up in 2025 it might even get stronger not economically where they're
stronger not economically where they're
stronger not economically where they're underperform compared to the US but
underperform compared to the US but
underperform compared to the US but politically from a security perspective
politically from a security perspective
politically from a security perspective as well they know they need to and the
as well they know they need to and the
as well they know they need to and the leaders that I see in Europe I see Mark
leaders that I see in Europe I see Mark
leaders that I see in Europe I see Mark Ruta uh as Secretary General of NATO I
Ruta uh as Secretary General of NATO I
Ruta uh as Secretary General of NATO I see Ursula vandine running the EU for a
see Ursula vandine running the EU for a
see Ursula vandine running the EU for a second term um I see a very capable
second term um I see a very capable
second term um I see a very capable Roberto metsola and Kaaya kalis
Roberto metsola and Kaaya kalis
Roberto metsola and Kaaya kalis underneath her um driving foreign policy
underneath her um driving foreign policy
underneath her um driving foreign policy for example in the European Parliament
for example in the European Parliament
for example in the European Parliament um the Germans are about to have an
um the Germans are about to have an
um the Germans are about to have an election know afd is not going to win
election know afd is not going to win
election know afd is not going to win despite Elon saying that they're going
despite Elon saying that they're going
despite Elon saying that they're going to it's going to be Frederick MZ and
to it's going to be Frederick MZ and
to it's going to be Frederick MZ and it's going to be a center-right
it's going to be a center-right
it's going to be a center-right government that's going to be quite
government that's going to be quite
government that's going to be quite close with all the European leaders at
close with all the European leaders at
close with all the European leaders at the EU level and quite close to macron
the EU level and quite close to macron
the EU level and quite close to macron macron is in big trouble in 2027 but he
macron is in big trouble in 2027 but he
macron is in big trouble in 2027 but he runs foreign policy still until then and
runs foreign policy still until then and
runs foreign policy still until then and he's going to be quite cohesive uh with
he's going to be quite cohesive uh with
he's going to be quite cohesive uh with the Germans and with the Europeans in
the Germans and with the Europeans in
the Germans and with the Europeans in 2025 so at least for this year I think
2025 so at least for this year I think
2025 so at least for this year I think the Europeans stand strongly and are
the Europeans stand strongly and are
the Europeans stand strongly and are more cohesive and coordinated it's a
more cohesive and coordinated it's a
more cohesive and coordinated it's a very important thing for what still is
very important thing for what still is
very important thing for what still is the world's largest common
the world's largest common
the world's largest common market well Ian I on behalf of our
market well Ian I on behalf of our
market well Ian I on behalf of our entire Community am an Enthusiast of
entire Community am an Enthusiast of
entire Community am an Enthusiast of these conversations we're very grateful
these conversations we're very grateful
these conversations we're very grateful to you for coming and sharing your
to you for coming and sharing your
to you for coming and sharing your wisdom and your Insight and thank you
wisdom and your Insight and thank you
wisdom and your Insight and thank you for coming back for the next thing that
for coming back for the next thing that
for coming back for the next thing that we will need to discuss and that we will
we will need to discuss and that we will
we will need to discuss and that we will need you to explain for now thank you so
need you to explain for now thank you so
need you to explain for now thank you so much and if you want to take a look at
much and if you want to take a look at
much and if you want to take a look at all of the risks you can see them online
all of the risks you can see them online
all of the risks you can see them online at euras group.net for now Ian signing
at euras group.net for now Ian signing
at euras group.net for now Ian signing off thank you so very much thank you
off thank you so very much thank you
off thank you so very much thank you Helen
Phonetic Breakdown of "tariff"
Learn how to break down "tariff" into its phonetic components. Understanding syllables and phonetics helps with pronunciation, spelling, and language learning.
Standard Phonetic Pronunciation:
IPA Phonetic Pronunciation:
Pronunciation Tips:
- Stress the first syllable
- Pay attention to vowel sounds
- Practice each syllable separately
Spelling Benefits:
- Easier to remember spelling
- Helps with word recognition
- Improves reading fluency
Definition of "tariff"
Noun
-
A system of government-imposed duties levied on imported or exported goods; a list of such duties, or the duties themselves.
-
A schedule of rates, fees or prices.
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A sentence determined according to a scale of standard penalties for certain categories of crime.
Verb
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To levy a duty on (something)