How to pronounce "puddles"

hi everybody hi Whitney hey David how

hi everybody hi Whitney hey David how

hi everybody hi Whitney hey David how are you doing I am good and I'm excited

are you doing I am good and I'm excited

are you doing I am good and I'm excited for for this conversation even if it is

for for this conversation even if it is

for for this conversation even if it is about pandemics I mean that that is the

about pandemics I mean that that is the

about pandemics I mean that that is the thing to talk about right now and I feel

thing to talk about right now and I feel

thing to talk about right now and I feel like some you know we'll have some

like some you know we'll have some

like some you know we'll have some things to share that could really help

things to share that could really help

things to share that could really help us all understand a little bit better

us all understand a little bit better

us all understand a little bit better and feel hopefully a little bit better

and feel hopefully a little bit better

and feel hopefully a little bit better exactly we can learn from the past so

exactly we can learn from the past so

exactly we can learn from the past so without further ado I'd like to

without further ado I'd like to

without further ado I'd like to introduce Sonia Shah she's a

introduce Sonia Shah she's a

introduce Sonia Shah she's a award-winning journalist and author who

award-winning journalist and author who

award-winning journalist and author who counts among her many illuminating books

counts among her many illuminating books

counts among her many illuminating books one simply titled pandemic and she's

one simply titled pandemic and she's

one simply titled pandemic and she's here to help us understand what a

here to help us understand what a

here to help us understand what a pandemic is and what we can learn from

pandemic is and what we can learn from

pandemic is and what we can learn from the pandemics of the past thanks for

the pandemics of the past thanks for

the pandemics of the past thanks for joining us Sonia nice to be here nice to

joining us Sonia nice to be here nice to

joining us Sonia nice to be here nice to see you nice to see you too so I guess

see you nice to see you too so I guess

see you nice to see you too so I guess I'll start with having written a book

I'll start with having written a book

I'll start with having written a book about this what does it feel like to

about this what does it feel like to

about this what does it feel like to have it kind of come true well it's very

have it kind of come true well it's very

have it kind of come true well it's very eerie and surreal but I think that's how

eerie and surreal but I think that's how

eerie and surreal but I think that's how a lot of people are feeling you know so

a lot of people are feeling you know so

a lot of people are feeling you know so I'm sort of experiencing the horror and

I'm sort of experiencing the horror and

I'm sort of experiencing the horror and tragedy of it with everyone else but

tragedy of it with everyone else but

tragedy of it with everyone else but also having a lot of sort of flashbacks

also having a lot of sort of flashbacks

also having a lot of sort of flashbacks to different historical epidemics and

to different historical epidemics and

to different historical epidemics and how they've unfolded and the fact that

how they've unfolded and the fact that

how they've unfolded and the fact that we're kind of reliving all of that is

we're kind of reliving all of that is

we're kind of reliving all of that is yeah it's a very eerie feeling yeah

yeah it's a very eerie feeling yeah

yeah it's a very eerie feeling yeah so at least I guess now we know it's a

so at least I guess now we know it's a

so at least I guess now we know it's a virus and not some bad air or whatever

virus and not some bad air or whatever

virus and not some bad air or whatever else people believed hundreds of years

else people believed hundreds of years

else people believed hundreds of years ago so what can we learn from past

ago so what can we learn from past

ago so what can we learn from past pandemics I mean it's it's interesting

pandemics I mean it's it's interesting

pandemics I mean it's it's interesting that you say that I think that is sort

that you say that I think that is sort

that you say that I think that is sort of the big difference I see is that we

of the big difference I see is that we

of the big difference I see is that we understand the transmission and sort of

understand the transmission and sort of

understand the transmission and sort of the causative agent of pandemics today

the causative agent of pandemics today

the causative agent of pandemics today very rapidly like you know in the past

very rapidly like you know in the past

very rapidly like you know in the past with say cholera or malaria took

with say cholera or malaria took

with say cholera or malaria took hundreds of years to figure it out that

hundreds of years to figure it out that

hundreds of years to figure it out that you know oh it's caused by this like

you know oh it's caused by this like

you know oh it's caused by this like parasite or this cult of this bacteria

parasite or this cult of this bacteria

parasite or this cult of this bacteria or whatever microbial intruder it is

or whatever microbial intruder it is

or whatever microbial intruder it is nowadays we know

nowadays we know

nowadays we know really rapidly you know within like

really rapidly you know within like

really rapidly you know within like weeks of these things emerging we can

weeks of these things emerging we can

weeks of these things emerging we can understand what it is that's actually

understand what it is that's actually

understand what it is that's actually causing that but it's still not clear to

causing that but it's still not clear to

causing that but it's still not clear to me that that knowledge is you know

me that that knowledge is you know

me that that knowledge is you know helping us contain it any better you

helping us contain it any better you

helping us contain it any better you know so so so that's the trick I mean

know so so so that's the trick I mean

know so so so that's the trick I mean one of the things I wrote about in my

one of the things I wrote about in my

one of the things I wrote about in my last book pandemic was about the

last book pandemic was about the

last book pandemic was about the outbreak of cholera in Haiti which was

outbreak of cholera in Haiti which was

outbreak of cholera in Haiti which was similar to you know in a small scale to

similar to you know in a small scale to

similar to you know in a small scale to what we're seeing today in that this is

what we're seeing today in that this is

what we're seeing today in that this is a population that had never experienced

a population that had never experienced

a population that had never experienced this pathogen and then suddenly comes in

this pathogen and then suddenly comes in

this pathogen and then suddenly comes in and it just like spreads like wildfire

and it just like spreads like wildfire

and it just like spreads like wildfire and it's really this violent

and it's really this violent

and it's really this violent confrontation between a pathogen and a

confrontation between a pathogen and a

confrontation between a pathogen and a new population that's never you know

new population that's never you know

new population that's never you know experienced it before and has no immune

experienced it before and has no immune

experienced it before and has no immune defenses or anything else against it and

defenses or anything else against it and

defenses or anything else against it and in that case you know there was a lot of

in that case you know there was a lot of

in that case you know there was a lot of knowledge you know there was a lot of

knowledge you know there was a lot of

knowledge you know there was a lot of knowledge about what's causing it and

knowledge about what's causing it and

knowledge about what's causing it and you know people were collecting cell

you know people were collecting cell

you know people were collecting cell phone data and they could see like where

phone data and they could see like where

phone data and they could see like where is this Co ain't going oh it's going to

is this Co ain't going oh it's going to

is this Co ain't going oh it's going to hit this village necks gonna hit that

hit this village necks gonna hit that

hit this village necks gonna hit that village next and it was really cool so

village next and it was really cool so

village next and it was really cool so all these like cool maps that were made

all these like cool maps that were made

all these like cool maps that were made about cholera spreading in Haiti after

about cholera spreading in Haiti after

about cholera spreading in Haiti after the earthquake but it didn't actually

the earthquake but it didn't actually

the earthquake but it didn't actually help anyone here not get cholera you

help anyone here not get cholera you

help anyone here not get cholera you know so so there's two separate things

know so so there's two separate things

know so so there's two separate things here like we have the knowledge that's

here like we have the knowledge that's

here like we have the knowledge that's good but are we able to actually like

good but are we able to actually like

good but are we able to actually like act on the knowledge and in a way that

act on the knowledge and in a way that

act on the knowledge and in a way that will save lives

will save lives

will save lives yeah so on that point looking at past

yeah so on that point looking at past

yeah so on that point looking at past pandemics what should we be doing that

pandemics what should we be doing that

pandemics what should we be doing that we're not currently doing based on the

we're not currently doing based on the

we're not currently doing based on the past I mean I think the thing that

past I mean I think the thing that

past I mean I think the thing that always interested me about emerging

always interested me about emerging

always interested me about emerging diseases is that you know they take off

diseases is that you know they take off

diseases is that you know they take off so quickly that you can't come up with

so quickly that you can't come up with

so quickly that you can't come up with the wonder drug the magic pill the the

the wonder drug the magic pill the the

the wonder drug the magic pill the the shot the vaccine all of those things

shot the vaccine all of those things

shot the vaccine all of those things that we have relied upon since you know

that we have relied upon since you know

that we have relied upon since you know the 1940s when we developed antibiotics

the 1940s when we developed antibiotics

the 1940s when we developed antibiotics that's has completely revolutionized

that's has completely revolutionized

that's has completely revolutionized medicine and it's completely changed the

medicine and it's completely changed the

medicine and it's completely changed the way we deal with contagious diseases

way we deal with contagious diseases

way we deal with contagious diseases where we don't have to think about well

where we don't have to think about well

where we don't have to think about well maybe we should you know clean up our

maybe we should you know clean up our

maybe we should you know clean up our water supply or maybe we should separate

water supply or maybe we should separate

water supply or maybe we should separate our waste from our food or maybe we

our waste from our food or maybe we

our waste from our food or maybe we should you know all these things that we

should you know all these things that we

should you know all these things that we used to have to do to avoid contagion in

used to have to do to avoid contagion in

used to have to do to avoid contagion in the

the

the past we don't have to do that anymore or

past we don't have to do that anymore or

past we don't have to do that anymore or not so much because we think oh we'll

not so much because we think oh we'll

not so much because we think oh we'll just take a course of antibiotics like

just take a course of antibiotics like

just take a course of antibiotics like big diello we'll make a vaccine it's no

big diello we'll make a vaccine it's no

big diello we'll make a vaccine it's no problem

problem

problem and so you know and I think what's

and so you know and I think what's

and so you know and I think what's interesting about emerging diseases is

interesting about emerging diseases is

interesting about emerging diseases is when something's brand new it starts

when something's brand new it starts

when something's brand new it starts growing exponentially and of course our

growing exponentially and of course our

growing exponentially and of course our response is linear so there's a mismatch

response is linear so there's a mismatch

response is linear so there's a mismatch there and you cannot have a drug or

there and you cannot have a drug or

there and you cannot have a drug or vaccine in time for the first wave of

vaccine in time for the first wave of

vaccine in time for the first wave of infection in susceptible populations

infection in susceptible populations

infection in susceptible populations which is of course the most sort of

which is of course the most sort of

which is of course the most sort of disruptive and dangerous wave so we saw

disruptive and dangerous wave so we saw

disruptive and dangerous wave so we saw that with Zika just now - right like

that with Zika just now - right like

that with Zika just now - right like Zika came through and it you know

Zika came through and it you know

Zika came through and it you know infected a whole load of people we have

infected a whole load of people we have

infected a whole load of people we have a whole generation of babies who are

a whole generation of babies who are

a whole generation of babies who are affected by that and we'll get some Zika

affected by that and we'll get some Zika

affected by that and we'll get some Zika treatments in Zika vaccines but it's not

treatments in Zika vaccines but it's not

treatments in Zika vaccines but it's not going to be in time for that first wave

going to be in time for that first wave

going to be in time for that first wave so what really you have to do with

so what really you have to do with

so what really you have to do with emerging diseases brand new diseases is

emerging diseases brand new diseases is

emerging diseases brand new diseases is you have to think about how to change

you have to think about how to change

you have to think about how to change behavior you know you have to have

behavior you know you have to have

behavior you know you have to have collective action and solidarity for

collective action and solidarity for

collective action and solidarity for everyone to say okay this is spreading

everyone to say okay this is spreading

everyone to say okay this is spreading using you know exploiting this facet of

using you know exploiting this facet of

using you know exploiting this facet of human behavior because of course that's

human behavior because of course that's

human behavior because of course that's always what they are doing right like a

always what they are doing right like a

always what they are doing right like a pathogen is a tiny microbe it can't move

pathogen is a tiny microbe it can't move

pathogen is a tiny microbe it can't move around on its own it's completely

around on its own it's completely

around on its own it's completely immobile unless we carry it around to

immobile unless we carry it around to

immobile unless we carry it around to each other so they're exploiting human

each other so they're exploiting human

each other so they're exploiting human behaviors and that's what we have to

behaviors and that's what we have to

behaviors and that's what we have to change then so so that's what really

change then so so that's what really

change then so so that's what really interested me about emerging diseases

interested me about emerging diseases

interested me about emerging diseases and we're seeing you know we're seeing

and we're seeing you know we're seeing

and we're seeing you know we're seeing that play out and tragically right now

that play out and tragically right now

that play out and tragically right now yeah I mean obviously Kovan 19 is one of

yeah I mean obviously Kovan 19 is one of

yeah I mean obviously Kovan 19 is one of the worst pandemics in recent memory but

the worst pandemics in recent memory but

the worst pandemics in recent memory but it seems like you mentioned Zika

it seems like you mentioned Zika

it seems like you mentioned Zika infectious diseases like this even even

infectious diseases like this even even

infectious diseases like this even even kind of smaller scale pandemics were

kind of smaller scale pandemics were

kind of smaller scale pandemics were we're already on the rise why why is

we're already on the rise why why is

we're already on the rise why why is that yeah I mean I think what you know

that yeah I mean I think what you know

that yeah I mean I think what you know what first sort of got me interested in

what first sort of got me interested in

what first sort of got me interested in emerging diseases also is this idea

emerging diseases also is this idea

emerging diseases also is this idea about these microbes the pathogens

about these microbes the pathogens

about these microbes the pathogens themselves are not you know new right

themselves are not you know new right

themselves are not you know new right they're newly emerged so for example

they're newly emerged so for example

they're newly emerged so for example cholera lives in it's a you know it's a

cholera lives in it's a you know it's a

cholera lives in it's a you know it's a it's a bacteria that lives in marine

it's a bacteria that lives in marine

it's a bacteria that lives in marine habitats and it lives there you know

habitats and it lives there you know

habitats and it lives there you know it's been there for hundreds of

it's been there for hundreds of

it's been there for hundreds of of years or more but we didn't have

of years or more but we didn't have

of years or more but we didn't have cholera until you know 1817 we

cholera until you know 1817 we

cholera until you know 1817 we coronaviruses have probably been in bats

coronaviruses have probably been in bats

coronaviruses have probably been in bats for hundreds of years if not longer but

for hundreds of years if not longer but

for hundreds of years if not longer but we're only getting you know a SARS

we're only getting you know a SARS

we're only getting you know a SARS pandemic and the current virus the Koba

pandemic and the current virus the Koba

pandemic and the current virus the Koba 19 pandemic right now so why is that

19 pandemic right now so why is that

19 pandemic right now so why is that well we know that over the past 50 or 70

well we know that over the past 50 or 70

well we know that over the past 50 or 70 years or so we've had the hundreds of

years or so we've had the hundreds of

years or so we've had the hundreds of new pathogens either kind of newly

new pathogens either kind of newly

new pathogens either kind of newly emerged or re-emerge into places where

emerged or re-emerge into places where

emerged or re-emerge into places where they have never been seen before

they have never been seen before

they have never been seen before Ebola in West Africa and 2014 s another

Ebola in West Africa and 2014 s another

Ebola in West Africa and 2014 s another example it had never we've had lots of

example it had never we've had lots of

example it had never we've had lots of Ebola outbreaks in the past since an you

Ebola outbreaks in the past since an you

Ebola outbreaks in the past since an you know the 1970s but never in that part of

know the 1970s but never in that part of

know the 1970s but never in that part of the continent in West Africa Zika in the

the continent in West Africa Zika in the

the continent in West Africa Zika in the Americas Zika existed for hundreds of

Americas Zika existed for hundreds of

Americas Zika existed for hundreds of years - at least you know we knew about

years - at least you know we knew about

years - at least you know we knew about it in in other parts of the world but it

it in in other parts of the world but it

it in in other parts of the world but it had never been seen in the Americas

had never been seen in the Americas

had never been seen in the Americas before we have new kinds of tick borne

before we have new kinds of tick borne

before we have new kinds of tick borne diseases new kinds of mosquito-borne

diseases new kinds of mosquito-borne

diseases new kinds of mosquito-borne illnesses new kinds of antibiotic

illnesses new kinds of antibiotic

illnesses new kinds of antibiotic resistant pathogens and you know the

resistant pathogens and you know the

resistant pathogens and you know the list goes on and on and so what we do

list goes on and on and so what we do

list goes on and on and so what we do know about them is that about 60% of

know about them is that about 60% of

know about them is that about 60% of these new pathogens are coming from the

these new pathogens are coming from the

these new pathogens are coming from the bodies of animals about 70% of those are

bodies of animals about 70% of those are

bodies of animals about 70% of those are coming from the bodies of wild animals

coming from the bodies of wild animals

coming from the bodies of wild animals and that's not strange you know almost

and that's not strange you know almost

and that's not strange you know almost many many of our infectious diseases

many many of our infectious diseases

many many of our infectious diseases come from animals from you know ancient

come from animals from you know ancient

come from animals from you know ancient encounters with animals cows sheep you

encounters with animals cows sheep you

encounters with animals cows sheep you know chickens all kinds of animals have

know chickens all kinds of animals have

know chickens all kinds of animals have given us the diseases of you know we

given us the diseases of you know we

given us the diseases of you know we accept as sort of normal parts of

accept as sort of normal parts of

accept as sort of normal parts of childhood influenza measles all of that

childhood influenza measles all of that

childhood influenza measles all of that so that's not weird what's weird is that

so that's not weird what's weird is that

so that's not weird what's weird is that it's happening so fast now that you know

it's happening so fast now that you know

it's happening so fast now that you know this the scale apace has stepped up and

this the scale apace has stepped up and

this the scale apace has stepped up and you know the other part of it is that we

you know the other part of it is that we

you know the other part of it is that we don't which we don't talk about enough

don't which we don't talk about enough

don't which we don't talk about enough is that humans are giving animals a

is that humans are giving animals a

is that humans are giving animals a pandemic causing pathogens also you know

pandemic causing pathogens also you know

pandemic causing pathogens also you know we've seen major pandemics and animal

we've seen major pandemics and animal

we've seen major pandemics and animal species already white nose syndrome and

species already white nose syndrome and

species already white nose syndrome and that's kitchen fungus and amphibians

that's kitchen fungus and amphibians

that's kitchen fungus and amphibians colony collapse disorder in these you

colony collapse disorder in these you

colony collapse disorder in these you know there's there's a number of

know there's there's a number of

know there's there's a number of different ones so this exchange has been

different ones so this exchange has been

different ones so this exchange has been going on that's part of you know that's

going on that's part of you know that's

going on that's part of you know that's part of sort of the human condition

part of sort of the human condition

part of sort of the human condition living on a microbial planet is that we

living on a microbial planet is that we

living on a microbial planet is that we share these microbes and when they come

share these microbes and when they come

share these microbes and when they come into a new

into a new

into a new habitats they expand to take advantage

habitats they expand to take advantage

habitats they expand to take advantage of it you know and in that spate that

of it you know and in that spate that

of it you know and in that spate that moment before our bodies can launch any

moment before our bodies can launch any

moment before our bodies can launch any kind of response they can really take

kind of response they can really take

kind of response they can really take over but the the underlying driver I

over but the the underlying driver I

over but the the underlying driver I think of the the speed at which we're

think of the the speed at which we're

think of the the speed at which we're seeing these new pathogens emerge today

seeing these new pathogens emerge today

seeing these new pathogens emerge today is because our expansion has reached

is because our expansion has reached

is because our expansion has reached sort of it like a tipping point almost

sort of it like a tipping point almost

sort of it like a tipping point almost you know I mean we've been industrial

you know I mean we've been industrial

you know I mean we've been industrial expansion has been going on for you know

expansion has been going on for you know

expansion has been going on for you know the last decades or so since we entered

the last decades or so since we entered

the last decades or so since we entered sort of the fossil fuel era in earnest

sort of the fossil fuel era in earnest

sort of the fossil fuel era in earnest and by now we've we've paved over over

and by now we've we've paved over over

and by now we've we've paved over over half of the terrestrial surface of the

half of the terrestrial surface of the

half of the terrestrial surface of the planet just in the last twenty years or

planet just in the last twenty years or

planet just in the last twenty years or so we've added another twenty two

so we've added another twenty two

so we've added another twenty two percent of the planet you know to for

percent of the planet you know to for

percent of the planet you know to for our farms or our mines or cities or

our farms or our mines or cities or

our farms or our mines or cities or towns or industrial activities and you

towns or industrial activities and you

towns or industrial activities and you know the most obvious impact of that is

know the most obvious impact of that is

know the most obvious impact of that is of course this the species extinction

of course this the species extinction

of course this the species extinction crisis the sixth extinction as we call

crisis the sixth extinction as we call

crisis the sixth extinction as we call it with 150 species being lost every day

it with 150 species being lost every day

it with 150 species being lost every day but for the you know because we're

but for the you know because we're

but for the you know because we're destroying where they live but the

destroying where they live but the

destroying where they live but the species that to hang on they have to

species that to hang on they have to

species that to hang on they have to crowd into ever smaller fragments that

crowd into ever smaller fragments that

crowd into ever smaller fragments that we leave for them so and that's more

we leave for them so and that's more

we leave for them so and that's more often going to be closer to where our

often going to be closer to where our

often going to be closer to where our you know our habitations are and that

you know our habitations are and that

you know our habitations are and that just increases the probability of

just increases the probability of

just increases the probability of contact between wildlife and humans

contact between wildlife and humans

contact between wildlife and humans whether it's through you know bushmeat

whether it's through you know bushmeat

whether it's through you know bushmeat hunting or a wildlife trade or wet

hunting or a wildlife trade or wet

hunting or a wildlife trade or wet markets or farming or just casual

markets or farming or just casual

markets or farming or just casual contact you know the the Ebola outbreak

contact you know the the Ebola outbreak

contact you know the the Ebola outbreak of 2014 we know was traced back to a

of 2014 we know was traced back to a

of 2014 we know was traced back to a single spillover event which is a

single spillover event which is a

single spillover event which is a two-year-old child who's playing near a

two-year-old child who's playing near a

two-year-old child who's playing near a tree where bats were known to roost and

tree where bats were known to roost and

tree where bats were known to roost and that child was the very first case of

that child was the very first case of

that child was the very first case of Ebola in that in that epidemic and we

Ebola in that in that epidemic and we

Ebola in that in that epidemic and we know that from sort of genetic

know that from sort of genetic

know that from sort of genetic sequencing he infected his parents and

sequencing he infected his parents and

sequencing he infected his parents and they infected their healthcare workers

they infected their healthcare workers

they infected their healthcare workers and they infected their family members

and they infected their family members

and they infected their family members and you know on and on and on until

and you know on and on and on until

and you know on and on and on until eleven thousand people are dead and you

eleven thousand people are dead and you

eleven thousand people are dead and you know and that can that those kinds of

know and that can that those kinds of

know and that can that those kinds of events are you know if they're

events are you know if they're

events are you know if they're probabilistic right so it's not like

probabilistic right so it's not like

probabilistic right so it's not like it's definitely going to happen but you

it's definitely going to happen but you

it's definitely going to happen but you know if you cut down the trees where the

know if you cut down the trees where the

know if you cut down the trees where the bats live in the

bats live in the

bats live in the farm jungle they don't just disappear

farm jungle they don't just disappear

farm jungle they don't just disappear they come in your garden instead

they come in your garden instead

they come in your garden instead and so when your kid goes outside and

and so when your kid goes outside and

and so when your kid goes outside and plays with the picks up a piece of fruit

plays with the picks up a piece of fruit

plays with the picks up a piece of fruit it might have some fat poo on it or bat

it might have some fat poo on it or bat

it might have some fat poo on it or bat saliva on it and then they touch they

saliva on it and then they touch they

saliva on it and then they touch they hate you know they get it on a hand they

hate you know they get it on a hand they

hate you know they get it on a hand they touch their mouth that's that's it

touch their mouth that's that's it

touch their mouth that's that's it that's enough yeah yeah so so that's the

that's enough yeah yeah so so that's the

that's enough yeah yeah so so that's the kind of wildlife portion side of it but

kind of wildlife portion side of it but

kind of wildlife portion side of it but then as you were talking about there's

then as you were talking about there's

then as you were talking about there's the the human side of it and obviously

the the human side of it and obviously

the the human side of it and obviously we're taking big measures in many parts

we're taking big measures in many parts

we're taking big measures in many parts of the developed world with lockdowns

of the developed world with lockdowns

of the developed world with lockdowns and and whatever else but what about

and and whatever else but what about

and and whatever else but what about places that I mean you mentioned the

places that I mean you mentioned the

places that I mean you mentioned the Ebola pandemic with the places that

Ebola pandemic with the places that

Ebola pandemic with the places that don't have running water or soap or the

don't have running water or soap or the

don't have running water or soap or the ability to self isolate and still still

ability to self isolate and still still

ability to self isolate and still still feed their family I'm thinking of you

feed their family I'm thinking of you

feed their family I'm thinking of you know India going on kind of lockdown but

know India going on kind of lockdown but

know India going on kind of lockdown but you know if you're a slum dweller how do

you know if you're a slum dweller how do

you know if you're a slum dweller how do you even do that is it is it going to be

you even do that is it is it going to be

you even do that is it is it going to be even harder to contain this virus

even harder to contain this virus

even harder to contain this virus because of you know the circumstances

because of you know the circumstances

because of you know the circumstances people are living in I mean I think what

people are living in I mean I think what

people are living in I mean I think what we need is a differentiated approach you

we need is a differentiated approach you

we need is a differentiated approach you know you don't have one size fits all

know you don't have one size fits all

know you don't have one size fits all for everywhere that this virus is going

for everywhere that this virus is going

for everywhere that this virus is going to occur you know the demographics are

to occur you know the demographics are

to occur you know the demographics are different the socio-economic conditions

different the socio-economic conditions

different the socio-economic conditions are different so right now like you know

are different so right now like you know

are different so right now like you know lockdown is something that maybe and we

lockdown is something that maybe and we

lockdown is something that maybe and we don't even know how well it will work

don't even know how well it will work

don't even know how well it will work but the idea is that it will work in

but the idea is that it will work in

but the idea is that it will work in places like the United States and Europe

places like the United States and Europe

places like the United States and Europe and elsewhere where you know there's a

and elsewhere where you know there's a

and elsewhere where you know there's a good amount of wealth and people can

good amount of wealth and people can

good amount of wealth and people can stay indoors and you do and what you're

stay indoors and you do and what you're

stay indoors and you do and what you're doing is you're saving your healthcare

doing is you're saving your healthcare

doing is you're saving your healthcare system so you have to consider that

system so you have to consider that

system so you have to consider that there is the health care capacity there

there is the health care capacity there

there is the health care capacity there to some extent and so we want to save

to some extent and so we want to save

to some extent and so we want to save that so we're going to stay home just to

that so we're going to stay home just to

that so we're going to stay home just to slow down transmission so they're not

slow down transmission so they're not

slow down transmission so they're not overwhelmed but if you're looking at a

overwhelmed but if you're looking at a

overwhelmed but if you're looking at a country where you don't have that

country where you don't have that

country where you don't have that capacity anyway you know places you know

capacity anyway you know places you know

capacity anyway you know places you know countries in some parts of Africa that

countries in some parts of Africa that

countries in some parts of Africa that may not have a lot of ICU beds and they

may not have a lot of ICU beds and they

may not have a lot of ICU beds and they don't have ventilators anyway and then

don't have ventilators anyway and then

don't have ventilators anyway and then also you know people aren't able to stay

also you know people aren't able to stay

also you know people aren't able to stay home and socially distance adequately

home and socially distance adequately

home and socially distance adequately because they're homeless or they're

because they're homeless or they're

because they're homeless or they're migrant laborers or you know whatever

migrant laborers or you know whatever

migrant laborers or you know whatever that you know lockdown maybe isn't the

that you know lockdown maybe isn't the

that you know lockdown maybe isn't the right approach it doesn't mean that

right approach it doesn't mean that

right approach it doesn't mean that there isn't other things they can do

there isn't other things they can do

there isn't other things they can do you know I think about like influenza in

you know I think about like influenza in

you know I think about like influenza in the United States and the most obvious

the United States and the most obvious

the United States and the most obvious thing to do because kids are sort of the

thing to do because kids are sort of the

thing to do because kids are sort of the main carrier of you know they they shed

main carrier of you know they they shed

main carrier of you know they they shed more flu virus they spread it more

more flu virus they spread it more

more flu virus they spread it more amongst themselves and they they get to

amongst themselves and they they get to

amongst themselves and they they get to vouch for that

vouch for that

vouch for that I have tickets for that yes so they're

I have tickets for that yes so they're

I have tickets for that yes so they're very germy with the flu but the most

very germy with the flu but the most

very germy with the flu but the most obvious thing to do then is okay well

obvious thing to do then is okay well

obvious thing to do then is okay well let's not touch our children during

let's not touch our children during

let's not touch our children during those six weeks of flu season or let's

those six weeks of flu season or let's

those six weeks of flu season or let's make them wear masks or let's keep them

make them wear masks or let's keep them

make them wear masks or let's keep them home from school you know there's we

home from school you know there's we

home from school you know there's we could isolate the kids don't hug your

could isolate the kids don't hug your

could isolate the kids don't hug your kids you know we could make those kinds

kids you know we could make those kinds

kids you know we could make those kinds of recommendations and it would make

of recommendations and it would make

of recommendations and it would make sense but it's not sensitive to the fact

sense but it's not sensitive to the fact

sense but it's not sensitive to the fact that these are people in our lives that

that these are people in our lives that

that these are people in our lives that we need to be connected to so we think

we need to be connected to so we think

we need to be connected to so we think of other ways to deal with it you know

of other ways to deal with it you know

of other ways to deal with it you know and so I I think there's I don't know

and so I I think there's I don't know

and so I I think there's I don't know what the answers are in a resource poor

what the answers are in a resource poor

what the answers are in a resource poor situation like how do you actually stand

situation like how do you actually stand

situation like how do you actually stand that but that doesn't mean there isn't

that but that doesn't mean there isn't

that but that doesn't mean there isn't better options we don't all have to do

better options we don't all have to do

better options we don't all have to do it the same way yeah are we so are there

it the same way yeah are we so are there

it the same way yeah are we so are there lessons that we can learn from past

lessons that we can learn from past

lessons that we can learn from past pandemics about what works I mean

pandemics about what works I mean

pandemics about what works I mean obviously Europe and let's say the 1600s

obviously Europe and let's say the 1600s

obviously Europe and let's say the 1600s when the plague is is floating around

when the plague is is floating around

when the plague is is floating around was was was kind of resource-poor and

was was was kind of resource-poor and

was was was kind of resource-poor and certainly understanding poor are there

certainly understanding poor are there

certainly understanding poor are there lessons we can learn from our from our

lessons we can learn from our from our

lessons we can learn from our from our ancestors or at least mistakes we can

ancestors or at least mistakes we can

ancestors or at least mistakes we can kind of avoid yeah I think I think more

kind of avoid yeah I think I think more

kind of avoid yeah I think I think more the latter and the stakes we can avoid I

the latter and the stakes we can avoid I

the latter and the stakes we can avoid I mean I think about sort of color in the

mean I think about sort of color in the

mean I think about sort of color in the 19th century when it came to New York

19th century when it came to New York

19th century when it came to New York and it took you know they had evidence

and it took you know they had evidence

and it took you know they had evidence that cholera was coming down the canal

that cholera was coming down the canal

that cholera was coming down the canal coming down the Erie Canal coming down

coming down the Erie Canal coming down

coming down the Erie Canal coming down the Hudson River into Manhattan they had

the Hudson River into Manhattan they had

the Hudson River into Manhattan they had they collected all that evidence like

they collected all that evidence like

they collected all that evidence like we've mapped it out and it's like so

we've mapped it out and it's like so

we've mapped it out and it's like so clear if you look at it today in

clear if you look at it today in

clear if you look at it today in retrospect right they knew that the

retrospect right they knew that the

retrospect right they knew that the water was contaminated with human waste

water was contaminated with human waste

water was contaminated with human waste they knew that would make them sick

they knew that would make them sick

they knew that would make them sick there was just all these opportunities

there was just all these opportunities

there was just all these opportunities to actually solve this problem but they

to actually solve this problem but they

to actually solve this problem but they never did and they had 80 years of

never did and they had 80 years of

never did and they had 80 years of epidemics whereas thousands and

epidemics whereas thousands and

epidemics whereas thousands and thousands of people

thousands of people

thousands of people New Yorkers would die and they're you

New Yorkers would die and they're you

New Yorkers would die and they're you know just terrifying panda epidemics

know just terrifying panda epidemics

know just terrifying panda epidemics like what we're seeing today but in the

like what we're seeing today but in the

like what we're seeing today but in the end you know when they finally did clean

end you know when they finally did clean

end you know when they finally did clean up the water and

up the water and

up the water and Koller disappeared for good it wasn't

Koller disappeared for good it wasn't

Koller disappeared for good it wasn't for public health it was because brewers

for public health it was because brewers

for public health it was because brewers wanted better tasting water for their

wanted better tasting water for their

wanted better tasting water for their beer and they felt they were at a

beer and they felt they were at a

beer and they felt they were at a competitive disadvantage because

competitive disadvantage because

competitive disadvantage because Philadelphia had had Institute had had

Philadelphia had had Institute had had

Philadelphia had had Institute had had you know cleaned up their water supply

you know cleaned up their water supply

you know cleaned up their water supply so you know it so much is going to

so you know it so much is going to

so you know it so much is going to depend on the stories we tell about

depend on the stories we tell about

depend on the stories we tell about these diseases you know to think about

these diseases you know to think about

these diseases you know to think about cholera in London also and they you know

cholera in London also and they you know

cholera in London also and they you know because they thought that cholera is a

because they thought that cholera is a

because they thought that cholera is a problem of miasmas which were you know

problem of miasmas which were you know

problem of miasmas which were you know basically bad smells though they wanted

basically bad smells though they wanted

basically bad smells though they wanted to get rid of the bad smells so they

to get rid of the bad smells so they

to get rid of the bad smells so they installed flush toilets or what they

installed flush toilets or what they

installed flush toilets or what they called water closets but since they only

called water closets but since they only

called water closets but since they only cared about the smell you know they

cared about the smell you know they

cared about the smell you know they installed the flush toilet because they

installed the flush toilet because they

installed the flush toilet because they didn't want the smell of human waste

didn't want the smell of human waste

didn't want the smell of human waste around their homes and alleys because

around their homes and alleys because

around their homes and alleys because they thought the smell would make them

they thought the smell would make them

they thought the smell would make them sick though so they started installing

sick though so they started installing

sick though so they started installing installing flush toilets get rid of all

installing flush toilets get rid of all

installing flush toilets get rid of all this stuff you know get rid of the

this stuff you know get rid of the

this stuff you know get rid of the smells but since all they cared about

smells but since all they cared about

smells but since all they cared about was the smell and not the contents they

was the smell and not the contents they

was the smell and not the contents they dumped all that into the River Thames

dumped all that into the River Thames

dumped all that into the River Thames which was of course their drinking water

which was of course their drinking water

which was of course their drinking water supply and so after every outbreak of

supply and so after every outbreak of

supply and so after every outbreak of cholera they installed more flush

cholera they installed more flush

cholera they installed more flush toilets to dump more of their waste into

toilets to dump more of their waste into

toilets to dump more of their waste into the drinking water and made it you know

the drinking water and made it you know

the drinking water and made it you know progressively worse so so much depends

progressively worse so so much depends

progressively worse so so much depends on how we sort of characterize this

on how we sort of characterize this

on how we sort of characterize this disease like if we did characterizes

disease like if we did characterizes

disease like if we did characterizes this disease as as you know some

this disease as as you know some

this disease as as you know some political leaders have done a Chinese

political leaders have done a Chinese

political leaders have done a Chinese virus you know then then what becomes

virus you know then then what becomes

virus you know then then what becomes our response our response is then okay

our response our response is then okay

our response our response is then okay well we should like close our borders

well we should like close our borders

well we should like close our borders and trade you know or do we or you know

and trade you know or do we or you know

and trade you know or do we or you know do we think of it as a problem of well

do we think of it as a problem of well

do we think of it as a problem of well too many people are travelling let's cut

too many people are travelling let's cut

too many people are travelling let's cut let's shut that down or do we think of

let's shut that down or do we think of

let's shut that down or do we think of it as you know people are invading

it as you know people are invading

it as you know people are invading wildlife habitat let's start conserving

wildlife habitat let's start conserving

wildlife habitat let's start conserving wildlife habitat so that doesn't happen

wildlife habitat so that doesn't happen

wildlife habitat so that doesn't happen you know there's there's all of these

you know there's there's all of these

you know there's there's all of these things all of these epidemics are

things all of these epidemics are

things all of these epidemics are multifactorial there's more than one you

multifactorial there's more than one you

multifactorial there's more than one you know there's a lot of pieces that come

know there's a lot of pieces that come

know there's a lot of pieces that come together so ultimately the stories we

together so ultimately the stories we

together so ultimately the stories we tell are going to be really influential

tell are going to be really influential

tell are going to be really influential in the actions we'll take after this

in the actions we'll take after this

in the actions we'll take after this pandemic ends it's that cultural piece

pandemic ends it's that cultural piece

pandemic ends it's that cultural piece where we just need to get the Brewers

where we just need to get the Brewers

where we just need to get the Brewers involved and that America will take

involved and that America will take

involved and that America will take action but it looks like Whitney has a

action but it looks like Whitney has a

action but it looks like Whitney has a question

now this is this is so fascinating and

now this is this is so fascinating and

now this is this is so fascinating and we have some questions coming in from

we have some questions coming in from

we have some questions coming in from the audience one of them is about you

the audience one of them is about you

the audience one of them is about you know in your point about this being

know in your point about this being

know in your point about this being multifactorial thinking about the

multifactorial thinking about the

multifactorial thinking about the climate crisis and how and why might

climate crisis and how and why might

climate crisis and how and why might that make infectious disease outbreaks

that make infectious disease outbreaks

that make infectious disease outbreaks more common yeah so I mean the thing

more common yeah so I mean the thing

more common yeah so I mean the thing about the climate change is it's gonna

about the climate change is it's gonna

about the climate change is it's gonna have a diverse effect on infectious

have a diverse effect on infectious

have a diverse effect on infectious disease epidemiology in some places

disease epidemiology in some places

disease epidemiology in some places there'll be more opportunities for

there'll be more opportunities for

there'll be more opportunities for pathogens to spread certain pathogens to

pathogens to spread certain pathogens to

pathogens to spread certain pathogens to spread in other places there might be

spread in other places there might be

spread in other places there might be less so malaria is a good example of

less so malaria is a good example of

less so malaria is a good example of that where malaria is carried by

that where malaria is carried by

that where malaria is carried by mosquitoes of course if you had say

mosquitoes of course if you had say

mosquitoes of course if you had say climate change means more precipitation

climate change means more precipitation

climate change means more precipitation in a place maybe that would mean that

in a place maybe that would mean that

in a place maybe that would mean that there'll be more puddles around so

there'll be more puddles around so

there'll be more puddles around so there'll be more breeding areas from

there'll be more breeding areas from

there'll be more breeding areas from mosquitoes and so that could mean that

mosquitoes and so that could mean that

mosquitoes and so that could mean that there will be more malaria or there

there will be more malaria or there

there will be more malaria or there could be more malaria but it also could

could be more malaria but it also could

could be more malaria but it also could mean that there'd be more flooding and

mean that there'd be more flooding and

mean that there'd be more flooding and if there's more flooding then that would

if there's more flooding then that would

if there's more flooding then that would wash more mosquito eggs away and so

wash more mosquito eggs away and so

wash more mosquito eggs away and so you'd have less mosquitoes and so then

you'd have less mosquitoes and so then

you'd have less mosquitoes and so then you might have less malaria around so

you might have less malaria around so

you might have less malaria around so the the impact is going to vary but I

the the impact is going to vary but I

the the impact is going to vary but I think the main thing is that the

think the main thing is that the

think the main thing is that the opportunities for transmission are going

opportunities for transmission are going

opportunities for transmission are going to change

to change

to change so when disease happens in new places

so when disease happens in new places

so when disease happens in new places that's that's what we're gonna see is

that's that's what we're gonna see is

that's that's what we're gonna see is disease happening in new places

disease happening in new places

disease happening in new places meaning populations that haven't had

meaning populations that haven't had

meaning populations that haven't had those experiences before going to be

those experiences before going to be

those experiences before going to be having diseases and that's we know

having diseases and that's we know

having diseases and that's we know because of immunity you know when

because of immunity you know when

because of immunity you know when something's new to you you'll get more

something's new to you you'll get more

something's new to you you'll get more sick - overall I think the impact will

sick - overall I think the impact will

sick - overall I think the impact will be a higher burden of disease from

be a higher burden of disease from

be a higher burden of disease from infectious from infectious pathogens

infectious from infectious pathogens

infectious from infectious pathogens even as like in some places there might

even as like in some places there might

even as like in some places there might be less you know less of this one

be less you know less of this one

be less you know less of this one disease and more more of it somewhere

disease and more more of it somewhere

disease and more more of it somewhere else but the other factor is just

else but the other factor is just

else but the other factor is just wildlife is moving you know climate

wildlife is moving you know climate

wildlife is moving you know climate change is already scrambling migration

change is already scrambling migration

change is already scrambling migration patterns of people and also wildlife

patterns of people and also wildlife

patterns of people and also wildlife about 80% of the species that have been

about 80% of the species that have been

about 80% of the species that have been checked are actually moving they're

checked are actually moving they're

checked are actually moving they're shifting their ranges to you know

shifting their ranges to you know

shifting their ranges to you know maintain their what they're used to in

maintain their what they're used to in

maintain their what they're used to in terms of the climate and that's really

terms of the climate and that's really

terms of the climate and that's really good that's like what we want that

good that's like what we want that

good that's like what we want that that's going to help them survive but it

that's going to help them survive but it

that's going to help them survive but it also means that wildlife and human

also means that wildlife and human

also means that wildlife and human populations are going to come into new

populations are going to come into new

populations are going to come into new kinds of contact in those areas too

kinds of contact in those areas too

kinds of contact in those areas too and so we don't know how that's going to

and so we don't know how that's going to

and so we don't know how that's going to kind of play out in terms of infectious

kind of play out in terms of infectious

kind of play out in terms of infectious disease risks but certainly that will

disease risks but certainly that will

disease risks but certainly that will that will also play a role thank you

that will also play a role thank you

that will also play a role thank you I'll be back from there questions and

I'll be back from there questions and

I'll be back from there questions and I'd love to remind our audience online

I'd love to remind our audience online

I'd love to remind our audience online that you can lead questions in the chat

that you can lead questions in the chat

that you can lead questions in the chat function which is that little talk

function which is that little talk

function which is that little talk bubble on the upper right-hand side of

bubble on the upper right-hand side of

bubble on the upper right-hand side of your window I'll be back shortly

your window I'll be back shortly

your window I'll be back shortly so it sounds like we got a bring an end

so it sounds like we got a bring an end

so it sounds like we got a bring an end to the wildlife trade for one thing but

to the wildlife trade for one thing but

to the wildlife trade for one thing but let's let's turn to maybe a more more

let's let's turn to maybe a more more

let's let's turn to maybe a more more hopeful subject how does this how does a

hopeful subject how does this how does a

hopeful subject how does this how does a pandemic end based on you know examples

pandemic end based on you know examples

pandemic end based on you know examples from the past and how will we even know

from the past and how will we even know

from the past and how will we even know when the pandemic is is ending what

when the pandemic is is ending what

when the pandemic is is ending what would you point to what will be the

would you point to what will be the

would you point to what will be the initial signs and what are the quickest

initial signs and what are the quickest

initial signs and what are the quickest things to to end I mean I think here in

things to to end I mean I think here in

things to to end I mean I think here in the in the US it'll be you know we'll

the in the US it'll be you know we'll

the in the US it'll be you know we'll have once our hospitals can manage the

have once our hospitals can manage the

have once our hospitals can manage the number of cases that become severe on a

number of cases that become severe on a

number of cases that become severe on a on a sort of steady basis then we'll be

on a sort of steady basis then we'll be

on a sort of steady basis then we'll be able to relax some of our social

able to relax some of our social

able to relax some of our social distancing and we'll probably have to

distancing and we'll probably have to

distancing and we'll probably have to have intermittent you know social

have intermittent you know social

have intermittent you know social distancing a little bit here and there

distancing a little bit here and there

distancing a little bit here and there kind of coming and going but the way the

kind of coming and going but the way the

kind of coming and going but the way the way I see it is like you know we're in

way I see it is like you know we're in

way I see it is like you know we're in the Steep first wave and it's the most

the Steep first wave and it's the most

the Steep first wave and it's the most sort of violent and difficult part of

sort of violent and difficult part of

sort of violent and difficult part of this process of sort of a new pathogen

this process of sort of a new pathogen

this process of sort of a new pathogen kind of tearing through a susceptible

kind of tearing through a susceptible

kind of tearing through a susceptible population but as it proceeds more and

population but as it proceeds more and

population but as it proceeds more and more of us are going to become you know

more of us are going to become you know

more of us are going to become you know immune because we'll have had it or you

immune because we'll have had it or you

immune because we'll have had it or you know MIT some of us will perish from it

know MIT some of us will perish from it

know MIT some of us will perish from it of course we're going to lose people but

of course we're going to lose people but

of course we're going to lose people but most of us are going to be able to have

most of us are going to be able to have

most of us are going to be able to have it and recover or wait until there is a

it and recover or wait until there is a

it and recover or wait until there is a vaccine and then have exposure so you

vaccine and then have exposure so you

vaccine and then have exposure so you know we look at measles coming into

know we look at measles coming into

know we look at measles coming into North America I think about that a lot

North America I think about that a lot

North America I think about that a lot and how violent that was you know that

and how violent that was you know that

and how violent that was you know that was just such a such a violent

was just such a such a violent

was just such a such a violent confrontation and you know changed

confrontation and you know changed

confrontation and you know changed history entirely but then you know after

history entirely but then you know after

history entirely but then you know after those first waves that are so deadly

those first waves that are so deadly

those first waves that are so deadly measles then becomes a disease of

measles then becomes a disease of

measles then becomes a disease of childhood and we see that with malaria

childhood and we see that with malaria

childhood and we see that with malaria too which is you know an ongoing

too which is you know an ongoing

too which is you know an ongoing catastrophe that malaria killed so many

catastrophe that malaria killed so many

catastrophe that malaria killed so many people every year this is something

people every year this is something

people every year this is something we've known how to prevent

we've known how to prevent

we've known how to prevent entirely and cure with drugs for

entirely and cure with drugs for

entirely and cure with drugs for hundreds of years and still you know

hundreds of years and still you know

hundreds of years and still you know thousands and thousands of babies die of

thousands and thousands of babies die of

thousands and thousands of babies die of malaria every day every year and you

malaria every day every year and you

malaria every day every year and you know and this has been going on year

know and this has been going on year

know and this has been going on year after year after year but in places

after year after year but in places

after year after year but in places where there is a lot of malaria malaria

where there is a lot of malaria malaria

where there is a lot of malaria malaria is a disease of childhood so if you can

is a disease of childhood so if you can

is a disease of childhood so if you can survive those first and episodes of

survive those first and episodes of

survive those first and episodes of malaria

malaria

malaria you know before you're 2 years old then

you know before you're 2 years old then

you know before you're 2 years old then you'll you can live in a malaria society

you'll you can live in a malaria society

you'll you can live in a malaria society and malaria kill you that's you know

and malaria kill you that's you know

and malaria kill you that's you know it's much less likely to be able to kill

it's much less likely to be able to kill

it's much less likely to be able to kill you because you've acquired some

you because you've acquired some

you because you've acquired some immunity so it's it's I sort of see it

immunity so it's it's I sort of see it

immunity so it's it's I sort of see it as a process of slowly getting you know

as a process of slowly getting you know

as a process of slowly getting you know sunburn that turns into a tan you know

sunburn that turns into a tan you know

sunburn that turns into a tan you know you have to have to go through this the

you have to have to go through this the

you have to have to go through this the pain of that and sort of get to this

pain of that and sort of get to this

pain of that and sort of get to this level where like okay you can kind of

level where like okay you can kind of

level where like okay you can kind of withstand it and that'll be supplemented

withstand it and that'll be supplemented

withstand it and that'll be supplemented hopefully with vaccines so that not you

hopefully with vaccines so that not you

hopefully with vaccines so that not you know so not so many of us have to

know so not so many of us have to

know so not so many of us have to experience the actual like hardship of

experience the actual like hardship of

experience the actual like hardship of having to survive this pathogen yeah

having to survive this pathogen yeah

having to survive this pathogen yeah what but what does it look like so you

what but what does it look like so you

what but what does it look like so you talked about the cholera epidemic in

talked about the cholera epidemic in

talked about the cholera epidemic in Haiti what does it look like when when

Haiti what does it look like when when

Haiti what does it look like when when life returns to normal or does it does

life returns to normal or does it does

life returns to normal or does it does it ever return to normal are we

it ever return to normal are we

it ever return to normal are we typically kind of transformed as a

typically kind of transformed as a

typically kind of transformed as a society post pandemic well I think

society post pandemic well I think

society post pandemic well I think that's what's been so frustrating about

that's what's been so frustrating about

that's what's been so frustrating about writing about infectious diseases for

writing about infectious diseases for

writing about infectious diseases for all these years is that things don't

all these years is that things don't

all these years is that things don't change enough after we have these you

change enough after we have these you

change enough after we have these you know the I mean that's sort of the the

know the I mean that's sort of the the

know the I mean that's sort of the the deep lesson I've learned his like people

deep lesson I've learned his like people

deep lesson I've learned his like people society to undergo these horrible

society to undergo these horrible

society to undergo these horrible epidemics that are so disruptive and so

epidemics that are so disruptive and so

epidemics that are so disruptive and so deadly and we turn against each other

deadly and we turn against each other

deadly and we turn against each other and you know corrupt governments kind of

and you know corrupt governments kind of

and you know corrupt governments kind of take advantage of it and there's secrecy

take advantage of it and there's secrecy

take advantage of it and there's secrecy all these things happen and it's it's

all these things happen and it's it's

all these things happen and it's it's very negative in a lot of ways but we

very negative in a lot of ways but we

very negative in a lot of ways but we come out of it we just bounce right back

come out of it we just bounce right back

come out of it we just bounce right back right back to business as usual and

right back to business as usual and

right back to business as usual and that's why pathogens are so successful

that's why pathogens are so successful

that's why pathogens are so successful you know in the end it's because we

you know in the end it's because we

you know in the end it's because we don't change our behavior we keep doing

don't change our behavior we keep doing

don't change our behavior we keep doing the same things and therefore they

the same things and therefore they

the same things and therefore they keeping there they're able to continue

keeping there they're able to continue

keeping there they're able to continue to exploit our our behaviors you know I

to exploit our our behaviors you know I

to exploit our our behaviors you know I think we're getting to a point now

think we're getting to a point now

think we're getting to a point now though that you know with this pandemic

though that you know with this pandemic

though that you know with this pandemic in particular where business as usual

in particular where business as usual

in particular where business as usual has been so disruptive

has been so disruptive

has been so disruptive that I think there's going to be a lot

that I think there's going to be a lot

that I think there's going to be a lot more political will to actually get to

more political will to actually get to

more political will to actually get to the root causes of you know why were at

the root causes of you know why were at

the root causes of you know why were at why we're being why we're so vulnerable

why we're being why we're so vulnerable

why we're being why we're so vulnerable to these new pathogens and what we can

to these new pathogens and what we can

to these new pathogens and what we can what can we do to prevent them and there

what can we do to prevent them and there

what can we do to prevent them and there is a lot of things we can do to minimize

is a lot of things we can do to minimize

is a lot of things we can do to minimize the risk of pandemics so that's a

the risk of pandemics so that's a

the risk of pandemics so that's a beautiful segue what are what are the

beautiful segue what are what are the

beautiful segue what are what are the things we can do to minimize the risk

things we can do to minimize the risk

things we can do to minimize the risk well so one of the things I talk about

well so one of the things I talk about

well so one of the things I talk about in my book is that you know what I tried

in my book is that you know what I tried

in my book is that you know what I tried to what I tried to do is show how a

to what I tried to do is show how a

to what I tried to do is show how a microbe turns into a pandemic causing

microbe turns into a pandemic causing

microbe turns into a pandemic causing pathogen so you know starting from its

pathogen so you know starting from its

pathogen so you know starting from its environmental reservoir happy beneficial

environmental reservoir happy beneficial

environmental reservoir happy beneficial and it's known environment not causing

and it's known environment not causing

and it's known environment not causing any disease for anyone and then slowly

any disease for anyone and then slowly

any disease for anyone and then slowly adapt to the human body and becomes this

adapt to the human body and becomes this

adapt to the human body and becomes this very disruptive pathogen so so I wanted

very disruptive pathogen so so I wanted

very disruptive pathogen so so I wanted to look at that whole story and what I

to look at that whole story and what I

to look at that whole story and what I learned is that you we really know how

learned is that you we really know how

learned is that you we really know how that process unfolds we know a lot about

that process unfolds we know a lot about

that process unfolds we know a lot about how that process unfolds so what that

how that process unfolds so what that

how that process unfolds so what that means is while we can't tell which

means is while we can't tell which

means is while we can't tell which microbe is going to cause the next

microbe is going to cause the next

microbe is going to cause the next pandemic since we know how it happens we

pandemic since we know how it happens we

pandemic since we know how it happens we can predict where it's most likely to

can predict where it's most likely to

can predict where it's most likely to happen so you know infectious disease

happen so you know infectious disease

happen so you know infectious disease modelers have come up with hotspot mats

modelers have come up with hotspot mats

modelers have come up with hotspot mats you know basically a map of the world

you know basically a map of the world

you know basically a map of the world where places where there's a lot of

where places where there's a lot of

where places where there's a lot of invasion of wildlife habitat there's a

invasion of wildlife habitat there's a

invasion of wildlife habitat there's a lot of intensification of like factory

lot of intensification of like factory

lot of intensification of like factory farming a lot of slums a lot of flight

farming a lot of slums a lot of flight

farming a lot of slums a lot of flight connections you know these are the

connections you know these are the

connections you know these are the drivers of microbes turning into

drivers of microbes turning into

drivers of microbes turning into pandemic housing pathogens and so

pandemic housing pathogens and so

pandemic housing pathogens and so there's hotspots around the world and in

there's hotspots around the world and in

there's hotspots around the world and in those places we can actively surveil

those places we can actively surveil

those places we can actively surveil from microbes you know don't wait until

from microbes you know don't wait until

from microbes you know don't wait until a bunch of people start getting sick

a bunch of people start getting sick

a bunch of people start getting sick because that's when the pathogens

because that's when the pathogens

because that's when the pathogens already adapted to the human body it's

already adapted to the human body it's

already adapted to the human body it's already starting to spread it's already

already starting to spread it's already

already starting to spread it's already starting to spread exponentially and our

starting to spread exponentially and our

starting to spread exponentially and our response is linear you it's not gonna

response is linear you it's not gonna

response is linear you it's not gonna you know we're not gonna be able to

you know we're not gonna be able to

you know we're not gonna be able to catch up but you can actively look for

catch up but you can actively look for

catch up but you can actively look for microbes that might be changing you know

microbes that might be changing you know

microbes that might be changing you know might be evolving in certain ways and

might be evolving in certain ways and

might be evolving in certain ways and they do that through you know various

they do that through you know various

they do that through you know various sampling techniques looking at blood

sampling techniques looking at blood

sampling techniques looking at blood samples or scat from wild animals or you

samples or scat from wild animals or you

samples or scat from wild animals or you know taking blood from farmers bush meat

know taking blood from farmers bush meat

know taking blood from farmers bush meat hunters like people kind of on the front

hunters like people kind of on the front

hunters like people kind of on the front lines of interacting with microbes in

lines of interacting with microbes in

lines of interacting with microbes in this way and really look and see like

this way and really look and see like

this way and really look and see like which ones are changing and they

which ones are changing and they

which ones are changing and they you can just kind of tinker with the

you can just kind of tinker with the

you can just kind of tinker with the local situations so that it doesn't have

local situations so that it doesn't have

local situations so that it doesn't have those opportunities anymore and you know

those opportunities anymore and you know

those opportunities anymore and you know we were the USAID was funding that

we were the USAID was funding that

we were the USAID was funding that program was called predict it was like a

program was called predict it was like a

program was called predict it was like a ten year old program and over the course

ten year old program and over the course

ten year old program and over the course of ten years that scientists who are

of ten years that scientists who are

of ten years that scientists who are involved in that program fingered about

involved in that program fingered about

involved in that program fingered about nine hundred microbes that might be

nine hundred microbes that might be

nine hundred microbes that might be changing in ways that could cause

changing in ways that could cause

changing in ways that could cause pandemics and so that's the kind of like

pandemics and so that's the kind of like

pandemics and so that's the kind of like you know background invisible Public

you know background invisible Public

you know background invisible Public Health work that nobody hears about you

Health work that nobody hears about you

Health work that nobody hears about you know because when Public Health is

know because when Public Health is

know because when Public Health is really really successful like nothing

really really successful like nothing

really really successful like nothing happens you know students sort of you

happens you know students sort of you

happens you know students sort of you know that the the paradox of it all is

know that the the paradox of it all is

know that the the paradox of it all is like the great victory of Public Health

like the great victory of Public Health

like the great victory of Public Health is that oh nothing happened you know so

is that oh nothing happened you know so

is that oh nothing happened you know so the optics aren't great for public

the optics aren't great for public

the optics aren't great for public health but it's really important work so

health but it's really important work so

health but it's really important work so you know that's and that that's the kind

you know that's and that that's the kind

you know that's and that that's the kind of thing we could do if we had the

of thing we could do if we had the

of thing we could do if we had the political will and then of course

political will and then of course

political will and then of course protecting wildlife habitat

protecting wildlife habitat

protecting wildlife habitat you know conserving more wildlife

you know conserving more wildlife

you know conserving more wildlife habitat and thinking about the public

habitat and thinking about the public

habitat and thinking about the public health impact of development you know we

health impact of development you know we

health impact of development you know we know we think about sort of the

know we think about sort of the

know we think about sort of the environmental impact okay is this gonna

environmental impact okay is this gonna

environmental impact okay is this gonna you know cause runoff or you know

you know cause runoff or you know

you know cause runoff or you know whatever you know we'll look at sort of

whatever you know we'll look at sort of

whatever you know we'll look at sort of the environmental impact before we say

the environmental impact before we say

the environmental impact before we say yes okay you can build that house or

yes okay you can build that house or

yes okay you can build that house or that mine or expand that mall or

that mine or expand that mall or

that mine or expand that mall or whatever but we don't look at well what

whatever but we don't look at well what

whatever but we don't look at well what is the public health impact and maybe

is the public health impact and maybe

is the public health impact and maybe that's something we can add on you know

that's something we can add on you know

that's something we can add on you know and I think if we did that and we had a

and I think if we did that and we had a

and I think if we did that and we had a really holistic way of looking at how

really holistic way of looking at how

really holistic way of looking at how pathogens emerge like it would have a

pathogens emerge like it would have a

pathogens emerge like it would have a constraining effect on our expanding

constraining effect on our expanding

constraining effect on our expanding footprint on the landscape and that's

footprint on the landscape and that's

footprint on the landscape and that's ultimately really the the kind of deep

ultimately really the the kind of deep

ultimately really the the kind of deep driver of all this so Public Health is

driver of all this so Public Health is

driver of all this so Public Health is kind of the you know boy who didn't cry

kind of the you know boy who didn't cry

kind of the you know boy who didn't cry wolf and therefore it's very easy to

wolf and therefore it's very easy to

wolf and therefore it's very easy to forget about those programs right and

forget about those programs right and

forget about those programs right and but they're the only thing predict

but they're the only thing predict

but they're the only thing predict predict protecting us is is predict

predict protecting us is is predict

predict protecting us is is predict still still around or were we so foolish

still still around or were we so foolish

still still around or were we so foolish as to stop it the Trump administration

as to stop it the Trump administration

as to stop it the Trump administration cut it last year I think but I believe

cut it last year I think but I believe

cut it last year I think but I believe they had some anonymous donor who gave

they had some anonymous donor who gave

they had some anonymous donor who gave them a couple million dollars so they're

them a couple million dollars so they're

them a couple million dollars so they're doing a little bit more but this is

doing a little bit more but this is

doing a little bit more but this is something that obviously we're gonna

something that obviously we're gonna

something that obviously we're gonna need to beef up in the

need to beef up in the

need to beef up in the you know if we you know make some new

you know if we you know make some new

you know if we you know make some new prices in November and you know get a

prices in November and you know get a

prices in November and you know get a government and political leaders in

government and political leaders in

government and political leaders in place who understand the value of that

place who understand the value of that

place who understand the value of that kind of work and then of course we need

kind of work and then of course we need

kind of work and then of course we need to have our you know uplift our primary

to have our you know uplift our primary

to have our you know uplift our primary health care the people have more access

health care the people have more access

health care the people have more access to care and paid sick leave and you know

to care and paid sick leave and you know

to care and paid sick leave and you know all of those things so that when

all of those things so that when

all of those things so that when outbreaks do occur that we you know we

outbreaks do occur that we you know we

outbreaks do occur that we you know we don't have we don't have this kind of

don't have we don't have this kind of

don't have we don't have this kind of disruption and try to do that we're

disruption and try to do that we're

disruption and try to do that we're seeing right now and looks like Whitney

seeing right now and looks like Whitney

seeing right now and looks like Whitney is back with another question I have

is back with another question I have

is back with another question I have many more though Whitney if you if you

many more though Whitney if you if you

many more though Whitney if you if you are struggling no no no no there's

are struggling no no no no there's

are struggling no no no no there's there's a couple of interesting ones

there's a couple of interesting ones

there's a couple of interesting ones here in fact one that sort of takes

here in fact one that sort of takes

here in fact one that sort of takes things in a little bit of a different

things in a little bit of a different

things in a little bit of a different direction one person wrote in about how

direction one person wrote in about how

direction one person wrote in about how you wrote recently about another type of

you wrote recently about another type of

you wrote recently about another type of pandemic that of xenophobia and

pandemic that of xenophobia and

pandemic that of xenophobia and scapegoating and it's really interested

scapegoating and it's really interested

scapegoating and it's really interested to hear you talk more about that and

to hear you talk more about that and

to hear you talk more about that and sort of how we can combat that pattern

sort of how we can combat that pattern

sort of how we can combat that pattern of harassment yeah I mean this has been

of harassment yeah I mean this has been

of harassment yeah I mean this has been sort of a hallmark of outbreaks of new

sort of a hallmark of outbreaks of new

sort of a hallmark of outbreaks of new disease you know since like hundreds of

disease you know since like hundreds of

disease you know since like hundreds of years ago as at least in the history

years ago as at least in the history

years ago as at least in the history that I've been writing about that you

that I've been writing about that you

that I've been writing about that you know a new disease comes out and nowhere

know a new disease comes out and nowhere

know a new disease comes out and nowhere people don't know why is it coming you

people don't know why is it coming you

people don't know why is it coming you know why is it spreading who why some

know why is it spreading who why some

know why is it spreading who why some people getting white other people aren't

people getting white other people aren't

people getting white other people aren't getting in and they start pointing their

getting in and they start pointing their

getting in and they start pointing their fingers at each other during the days of

fingers at each other during the days of

fingers at each other during the days of cholera it was you know the Irish

cholera it was you know the Irish

cholera it was you know the Irish immigrants who were blamed before the

immigrants who were blamed before the

immigrants who were blamed before the cholera after you know after they were

cholera after you know after they were

cholera after you know after they were blamed then it was the Muslims were

blamed then it was the Muslims were

blamed then it was the Muslims were blamed and then it was the Eastern

blamed and then it was the Eastern

blamed and then it was the Eastern Europeans who are blamed and so today we

Europeans who are blamed and so today we

Europeans who are blamed and so today we see people blaming the Chinese or maybe

see people blaming the Chinese or maybe

see people blaming the Chinese or maybe Asians writ large and of course there is

Asians writ large and of course there is

Asians writ large and of course there is a geography to where pathogens emerge

a geography to where pathogens emerge

a geography to where pathogens emerge but once they once they erupt their

but once they once they erupt their

but once they once they erupt their global you know as we clearly see today

global you know as we clearly see today

global you know as we clearly see today this thing is everywhere then as much as

this thing is everywhere then as much as

this thing is everywhere then as much as you know coronavirus might have

you know coronavirus might have

you know coronavirus might have originated in parts of China again this

originated in parts of China again this

originated in parts of China again this goes back to like what are the stories

goes back to like what are the stories

goes back to like what are the stories we tell about epidemics and contagions

we tell about epidemics and contagions

we tell about epidemics and contagions when we see a pathogen emerge somewhere

when we see a pathogen emerge somewhere

when we see a pathogen emerge somewhere else you know outside of our society we

else you know outside of our society we

else you know outside of our society we talk about it in a certain way when it's

talk about it in a certain way when it's

talk about it in a certain way when it's something that emerges right on our own

something that emerges right on our own

something that emerges right on our own soil in our own

soil in our own

soil in our own we talked about it in a totally

we talked about it in a totally

we talked about it in a totally different way do you look at for example

different way do you look at for example

different way do you look at for example antibiotic resistant bacteria this is a

antibiotic resistant bacteria this is a

antibiotic resistant bacteria this is a huge problem in the United States and

huge problem in the United States and

huge problem in the United States and it's directly linked to our completely

it's directly linked to our completely

it's directly linked to our completely irrational use of antibiotics not just

irrational use of antibiotics not just

irrational use of antibiotics not just in human medicine but in agriculture and

in human medicine but in agriculture and

in human medicine but in agriculture and you know we're already rapidly

you know we're already rapidly

you know we're already rapidly approaching the point where we'll have

approaching the point where we'll have

approaching the point where we'll have like unstoppable infections but we don't

like unstoppable infections but we don't

like unstoppable infections but we don't talk about it that way you know we don't

talk about it that way you know we don't

talk about it that way you know we don't talk about it as this like scary thing

talk about it as this like scary thing

talk about it as this like scary thing that's like growing and encroaching on

that's like growing and encroaching on

that's like growing and encroaching on us because it doesn't match this

us because it doesn't match this

us because it doesn't match this paradigm of invasion and encroachment

paradigm of invasion and encroachment

paradigm of invasion and encroachment that others are the ones they're the you

that others are the ones they're the you

that others are the ones they're the you know the the other people are the

know the the other people are the

know the the other people are the polluted polluted intruders who are

polluted polluted intruders who are

polluted polluted intruders who are contaminating us and we need to kind of

contaminating us and we need to kind of

contaminating us and we need to kind of close our borders and keep our pristine

close our borders and keep our pristine

close our borders and keep our pristine you know pure a pure societies intact

you know pure a pure societies intact

you know pure a pure societies intact and keep all this contamination outside

and keep all this contamination outside

and keep all this contamination outside of us and I think that's sort of the

of us and I think that's sort of the

of us and I think that's sort of the general way we talk about pathogens and

general way we talk about pathogens and

general way we talk about pathogens and disease processes as a process of

disease processes as a process of

disease processes as a process of invasion really lends itself to

invasion really lends itself to

invasion really lends itself to scapegoating even if you don't have a

scapegoating even if you don't have a

scapegoating even if you don't have a political leader like we do in the

political leader like we do in the

political leader like we do in the United States who actually actively

United States who actually actively

United States who actually actively calls you know the virus a Chinese virus

calls you know the virus a Chinese virus

calls you know the virus a Chinese virus or you know it you know actively kind of

or you know it you know actively kind of

or you know it you know actively kind of engages and encourages scapegoating but

engages and encourages scapegoating but

engages and encourages scapegoating but I think the general way we even talk

I think the general way we even talk

I think the general way we even talk about diseases has to change you know we

about diseases has to change you know we

about diseases has to change you know we don't talk about HIV as the New York

don't talk about HIV as the New York

don't talk about HIV as the New York City virus even though it explored

City virus even though it explored

City virus even though it explored exploded in New York City we don't talk

exploded in New York City we don't talk

exploded in New York City we don't talk about methicillin-resistant

about methicillin-resistant

about methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus MRSA as you know

staphylococcus aureus MRSA as you know

staphylococcus aureus MRSA as you know the Boston plague even though that's

the Boston plague even though that's

the Boston plague even though that's where it exploded you know because we we

where it exploded you know because we we

where it exploded you know because we we named things as other and foreign when

named things as other and foreign when

named things as other and foreign when they're outside of us and I think that's

they're outside of us and I think that's

they're outside of us and I think that's part of trying to make us feel better

part of trying to make us feel better

part of trying to make us feel better about it and also I mean you know like

about it and also I mean you know like

about it and also I mean you know like externalizing the threat when really

externalizing the threat when really

externalizing the threat when really it's so much about our own behaviors and

it's so much about our own behaviors and

it's so much about our own behaviors and I'll I'll come back to join you guys at

I'll I'll come back to join you guys at

I'll I'll come back to join you guys at the very end

that I think is a very important point

that I think is a very important point

that I think is a very important point point in that we're kind of an info

point in that we're kind of an info

point in that we're kind of an info demmick of sorts there's as much kind of

demmick of sorts there's as much kind of

demmick of sorts there's as much kind of missing misinformation with this

missing misinformation with this

missing misinformation with this pandemic as well as any I've ever seen

pandemic as well as any I've ever seen

pandemic as well as any I've ever seen are there examples from the past where

are there examples from the past where

are there examples from the past where we're kind of the rumors and the bad

we're kind of the rumors and the bad

we're kind of the rumors and the bad Intel

Intel

Intel kind of raced ahead of the pandemic or

kind of raced ahead of the pandemic or

kind of raced ahead of the pandemic or is that truly a feature of our kind of

is that truly a feature of our kind of

is that truly a feature of our kind of modern age oh no I don't think it's a

modern age oh no I don't think it's a

modern age oh no I don't think it's a feature of our modern age at all like

feature of our modern age at all like

feature of our modern age at all like that you know that was not there was

that you know that was not there was

that you know that was not there was rumors and like secrecy and all of that

rumors and like secrecy and all of that

rumors and like secrecy and all of that was is definitely very much a part of

was is definitely very much a part of

was is definitely very much a part of epidemics of the past I mean I was just

epidemics of the past I mean I was just

epidemics of the past I mean I was just I think a lot about an epidemic of

I think a lot about an epidemic of

I think a lot about an epidemic of cholera that happened in Italy in 1911

cholera that happened in Italy in 1911

cholera that happened in Italy in 1911 or so and that it was on the eve of the

or so and that it was on the eve of the

or so and that it was on the eve of the I think was a 50th anniversary of the

I think was a 50th anniversary of the

I think was a 50th anniversary of the country of the state of Italy and so

country of the state of Italy and so

country of the state of Italy and so there's these big you know big

there's these big you know big

there's these big you know big celebrations planned and then cholera

celebrations planned and then cholera

celebrations planned and then cholera erupted in Naples and the government

erupted in Naples and the government

erupted in Naples and the government basically just decided to keep it a

basically just decided to keep it a

basically just decided to keep it a secret I mean it was still spreading and

secret I mean it was still spreading and

secret I mean it was still spreading and you know people are getting sick and

you know people are getting sick and

you know people are getting sick and people are dying but they kind of paid

people are dying but they kind of paid

people are dying but they kind of paid off newspaper reporters not to mention

off newspaper reporters not to mention

off newspaper reporters not to mention it and they intercepted telegrams that

it and they intercepted telegrams that

it and they intercepted telegrams that had the word collaring in the you know

had the word collaring in the you know

had the word collaring in the you know censored those they it was in cahoots

censored those they it was in cahoots

censored those they it was in cahoots with other international leaders you

with other international leaders you

with other international leaders you know in the United States and in France

know in the United States and in France

know in the United States and in France they knew and they said okay we're just

they knew and they said okay we're just

they knew and they said okay we're just not gonna you know let's just not

not gonna you know let's just not

not gonna you know let's just not mention it you know and you know in the

mention it you know and you know in the

mention it you know and you know in the absence of sort of authoritative

absence of sort of authoritative

absence of sort of authoritative accurate information from the top the

accurate information from the top the

accurate information from the top the all kinds of rumors spread

all kinds of rumors spread

all kinds of rumors spread you know oh it's people are dying from

you know oh it's people are dying from

you know oh it's people are dying from eating watermelons people are dying from

eating watermelons people are dying from

eating watermelons people are dying from eating strawberries people are dying too

eating strawberries people are dying too

eating strawberries people are dying too all different because it cuz you don't

all different because it cuz you don't

all different because it cuz you don't know you don't know there's just this

know you don't know there's just this

know you don't know there's just this vacuum but you know something is

vacuum but you know something is

vacuum but you know something is happening and I think right now because

happening and I think right now because

happening and I think right now because there you know there are some mixed

there you know there are some mixed

there you know there are some mixed messaging there is some Mis mixed

messaging there is some Mis mixed

messaging there is some Mis mixed messaging coming from our political

messaging coming from our political

messaging coming from our political leaders where some are saying oh it's a

leaders where some are saying oh it's a

leaders where some are saying oh it's a oh it's very serious is kind of the fog

oh it's very serious is kind of the fog

oh it's very serious is kind of the fog of war you know there's a lot of

of war you know there's a lot of

of war you know there's a lot of uncertainty right now and so it's

uncertainty right now and so it's

uncertainty right now and so it's understandable but that definitely lends

understandable but that definitely lends

understandable but that definitely lends itself to the rumors and misinformation

itself to the rumors and misinformation

itself to the rumors and misinformation you know just like in you

you know just like in you

you know just like in you eight 19th century when people blame

eight 19th century when people blame

eight 19th century when people blame diseases on Irish immigrants you know

diseases on Irish immigrants you know

diseases on Irish immigrants you know that that was that was basically a

that that was that was basically a

that that was that was basically a made-up idea also right well we we

made-up idea also right well we we

made-up idea also right well we we certainly saw that early on in this

certainly saw that early on in this

certainly saw that early on in this pandemic you know China was not exactly

pandemic you know China was not exactly

pandemic you know China was not exactly transparent in the early days and that's

transparent in the early days and that's

transparent in the early days and that's a feature you know going back to the

a feature you know going back to the

a feature you know going back to the Spanish flu which is only called the

Spanish flu which is only called the

Spanish flu which is only called the Spanish flu because as I understand that

Spanish flu because as I understand that

Spanish flu because as I understand that Spain was the only one to kind of openly

Spain was the only one to kind of openly

Spain was the only one to kind of openly talk about it but it's thought that it

talk about it but it's thought that it

talk about it but it's thought that it actually originated in the US right yeah

actually originated in the US right yeah

actually originated in the US right yeah I'm not sure where it actually

I'm not sure where it actually

I'm not sure where it actually originated somewhere in the Americas but

originated somewhere in the Americas but

originated somewhere in the Americas but but yeah it's vanished blue became sort

but yeah it's vanished blue became sort

but yeah it's vanished blue became sort of you know the Spain got blamed for the

of you know the Spain got blamed for the

of you know the Spain got blamed for the whole thing even though it didn't even

whole thing even though it didn't even

whole thing even though it didn't even originate there so that is a recurring

originate there so that is a recurring

originate there so that is a recurring feature are there kind of common

feature are there kind of common

feature are there kind of common responses that we have to these

responses that we have to these

responses that we have to these pandemics that kind of repeat themselves

pandemics that kind of repeat themselves

pandemics that kind of repeat themselves over and over again that we could maybe

over and over again that we could maybe

over and over again that we could maybe avoid next time around because it seems

avoid next time around because it seems

avoid next time around because it seems like end mxr are going are are a feature

like end mxr are going are are a feature

like end mxr are going are are a feature of human existence I mean I think they

of human existence I mean I think they

of human existence I mean I think they are in a way but you know they are also

are in a way but you know they are also

are in a way but you know they are also manufactured by our political choices so

manufactured by our political choices so

manufactured by our political choices so I think we can we can't get rid of

I think we can we can't get rid of

I think we can we can't get rid of infectious diseases

infectious diseases

infectious diseases we'll always have those will always have

we'll always have those will always have

we'll always have those will always have outbreaks and epidemics here and there

outbreaks and epidemics here and there

outbreaks and epidemics here and there but we don't have to spread them around

but we don't have to spread them around

but we don't have to spread them around the world rapidly in a pandemic I don't

the world rapidly in a pandemic I don't

the world rapidly in a pandemic I don't think so you know Larry brilliant

think so you know Larry brilliant

think so you know Larry brilliant epidemiologists had this great quote

epidemiologists had this great quote

epidemiologists had this great quote which I used a lot but he said

which I used a lot but he said

which I used a lot but he said infectious diseases are inevitable but

infectious diseases are inevitable but

infectious diseases are inevitable but pandemics are optional and I think that

pandemics are optional and I think that

pandemics are optional and I think that is right you know we don't have to

is right you know we don't have to

is right you know we don't have to spread these around so rapidly and we

spread these around so rapidly and we

spread these around so rapidly and we don't have to create that basically

don't have to create that basically

don't have to create that basically built we're building highways for these

built we're building highways for these

built we're building highways for these microbes to enter the human body and

microbes to enter the human body and

microbes to enter the human body and then we're distributing them around the

then we're distributing them around the

then we're distributing them around the globe you know in the most efficient way

globe you know in the most efficient way

globe you know in the most efficient way possible and yet you know and for me

possible and yet you know and for me

possible and yet you know and for me like the spread you know the Travel

like the spread you know the Travel

like the spread you know the Travel Network is also part of the solution

Network is also part of the solution

Network is also part of the solution right because yes that spreads disease

right because yes that spreads disease

right because yes that spreads disease but it also spreads cures it also

but it also spreads cures it also

but it also spreads cures it also spreads knowledge and innovation

spreads knowledge and innovation

spreads knowledge and innovation so to me there's all of these risk

so to me there's all of these risk

so to me there's all of these risk factors are theirs costs and benefits

factors are theirs costs and benefits

factors are theirs costs and benefits and you have to weigh those so to me

and you have to weigh those so to me

and you have to weigh those so to me movement is is it's so beneficial also

movement is is it's so beneficial also

movement is is it's so beneficial also that you know I think that maybe

that you know I think that maybe

that you know I think that maybe outweighs the cost but there's a lot of

outweighs the cost but there's a lot of

outweighs the cost but there's a lot of other things we can do you know in terms

other things we can do you know in terms

other things we can do you know in terms of being prepared for the next epidemic

of being prepared for the next epidemic

of being prepared for the next epidemic but also just minimizing the risk that's

but also just minimizing the risk that's

but also just minimizing the risk that's going to happen at all you know I mean

going to happen at all you know I mean

going to happen at all you know I mean Quran the coronavirus family is obvious

Quran the coronavirus family is obvious

Quran the coronavirus family is obvious candidate like this this virus is the

candidate like this this virus is the

candidate like this this virus is the same species of the SARS virus that came

same species of the SARS virus that came

same species of the SARS virus that came out in 2002 so you know once we can

out in 2002 so you know once we can

out in 2002 so you know once we can better understand where these things are

better understand where these things are

better understand where these things are coming from and what is the exact sort

coming from and what is the exact sort

coming from and what is the exact sort of pathway we can we can start to

of pathway we can we can start to

of pathway we can we can start to rearrange those so that it becomes less

rearrange those so that it becomes less

rearrange those so that it becomes less likely that you know these pathogens

likely that you know these pathogens

likely that you know these pathogens label to take it to exploit these

label to take it to exploit these

label to take it to exploit these pathways we've created for them right

pathways we've created for them right

pathways we've created for them right and and looking at history is it that

and and looking at history is it that

and and looking at history is it that pandemics kind of follow these waves of

pandemics kind of follow these waves of

pandemics kind of follow these waves of the globalization or is it more

the globalization or is it more

the globalization or is it more complicated than that yeah I think that

complicated than that yeah I think that

complicated than that yeah I think that is true I mean you look at you know

is true I mean you look at you know

is true I mean you look at you know cholera is the one I wrote about the

cholera is the one I wrote about the

cholera is the one I wrote about the most because it's one of our most

most because it's one of our most

most because it's one of our most successful pandemic causing pathogens

successful pandemic causing pathogens

successful pandemic causing pathogens it's caused famine global pandemics and

it's caused famine global pandemics and

it's caused famine global pandemics and I think there's an eighth one sort of

I think there's an eighth one sort of

I think there's an eighth one sort of brewing most likely but yeah it

brewing most likely but yeah it

brewing most likely but yeah it definitely took advantage of you know

definitely took advantage of you know

definitely took advantage of you know 19th century travel patterns of the new

19th century travel patterns of the new

19th century travel patterns of the new canals and steamships and you know the

canals and steamships and you know the

canals and steamships and you know the Industrial Age was really something that

Industrial Age was really something that

Industrial Age was really something that cholera took advantage of and you know

cholera took advantage of and you know

cholera took advantage of and you know we see with like stars for example in

we see with like stars for example in

we see with like stars for example in 2002 would never have gotten out of

2002 would never have gotten out of

2002 would never have gotten out of South China and Hong Kong if it weren't

South China and Hong Kong if it weren't

South China and Hong Kong if it weren't you know it reached Hong Kong which like

you know it reached Hong Kong which like

you know it reached Hong Kong which like critical because that was that's an

critical because that was that's an

critical because that was that's an international flight hub and then from

international flight hub and then from

international flight hub and then from there was able to be carried out in

there was able to be carried out in

there was able to be carried out in flights to like dozens of other

flights to like dozens of other

flights to like dozens of other countries and same with Zika you know

countries and same with Zika you know

countries and same with Zika you know Zika you know wouldn't have made it over

Zika you know wouldn't have made it over

Zika you know wouldn't have made it over to the Americas except for international

to the Americas except for international

to the Americas except for international sporting events and things like that so

sporting events and things like that so

sporting events and things like that so everyone kind of come in suddenly coming

everyone kind of come in suddenly coming

everyone kind of come in suddenly coming together creates these great

together creates these great

together creates these great opportunities for pathogens to spread

opportunities for pathogens to spread

opportunities for pathogens to spread but at the same time you know you can

but at the same time you know you can

but at the same time you know you can actually predict like where and this has

actually predict like where and this has

actually predict like where and this has been mapped out in really beautiful maps

been mapped out in really beautiful maps

been mapped out in really beautiful maps where if you have like a map of the

where if you have like a map of the

where if you have like a map of the world and you do

world and you do

world and you do flu you simulate a flu pandemic on it

flu you simulate a flu pandemic on it

flu you simulate a flu pandemic on it you know the you know they'll be like a

you know the you know they'll be like a

you know the you know they'll be like a little red dot in one place where is

little red dot in one place where is

little red dot in one place where is infection and then it kind of just

infection and then it kind of just

infection and then it kind of just spreads kind of seemingly randomly

spreads kind of seemingly randomly

spreads kind of seemingly randomly around the globe until it's everyone's

around the globe until it's everyone's

around the globe until it's everyone's gotten it if you take that same map and

gotten it if you take that same map and

gotten it if you take that same map and you map out all the cities in terms of

you map out all the cities in terms of

you map out all the cities in terms of their direct flight connections and then

their direct flight connections and then

their direct flight connections and then run that same stimulated flu pandemic on

run that same stimulated flu pandemic on

run that same stimulated flu pandemic on that kind of map it resolves into this

that kind of map it resolves into this

that kind of map it resolves into this like beautiful perfect series of waves

like beautiful perfect series of waves

like beautiful perfect series of waves because you can literally predict which

because you can literally predict which

because you can literally predict which Divi will be infected next just based on

Divi will be infected next just based on

Divi will be infected next just based on the number of direct flights between

the number of direct flights between

the number of direct flights between uninfected and infected cities so you

uninfected and infected cities so you

uninfected and infected cities so you know the way we travel is hugely

know the way we travel is hugely

know the way we travel is hugely influential in sort of the shape of

influential in sort of the shape of

influential in sort of the shape of these pandemics and how they unfold so

these pandemics and how they unfold so

these pandemics and how they unfold so it looks like we we have to wrap up but

it looks like we we have to wrap up but

it looks like we we have to wrap up but I want to I want to ask one final

I want to I want to ask one final

I want to I want to ask one final question which is you know you've

question which is you know you've

question which is you know you've studied all these past pandemics what

studied all these past pandemics what

studied all these past pandemics what gives you what gives you hope from from

gives you what gives you hope from from

gives you what gives you hope from from what you've learned what you've seen

two things one is maybe a little darker

two things one is maybe a little darker

two things one is maybe a little darker than the second one so I'll I'll start

than the second one so I'll I'll start

than the second one so I'll I'll start with the dark :

with the dark :

with the dark : what is that pathogens have to balance

what is that pathogens have to balance

what is that pathogens have to balance their transmissibility and their

their transmissibility and their

their transmissibility and their virulence you know if you have a

virulence you know if you have a

virulence you know if you have a pathogen and this is just from the

pathogen and this is just from the

pathogen and this is just from the pathogens point of view you know to

pathogens point of view you know to

pathogens point of view you know to survive they have to spread from one

survive they have to spread from one

survive they have to spread from one host to the next and they have to

host to the next and they have to

host to the next and they have to replicate within that host so that they

replicate within that host so that they

replicate within that host so that they you know their populations get stronger

you know their populations get stronger

you know their populations get stronger and bigger so they need to do both of

and bigger so they need to do both of

and bigger so they need to do both of those things and that's the tension for

those things and that's the tension for

those things and that's the tension for them because if they're too virulent if

them because if they're too virulent if

them because if they're too virulent if they replicate too fast then their host

they replicate too fast then their host

they replicate too fast then their host is gonna get so sick and maybe even die

is gonna get so sick and maybe even die

is gonna get so sick and maybe even die and then they're not gonna be able to

and then they're not gonna be able to

and then they're not gonna be able to carry them to the next person you know a

carry them to the next person you know a

carry them to the next person you know a dead host or a sick host is isolated

dead host or a sick host is isolated

dead host or a sick host is isolated they're not interacting with other

they're not interacting with other

they're not interacting with other people as much so there's much fewer

people as much so there's much fewer

people as much so there's much fewer transmission opportunities to sort of in

transmission opportunities to sort of in

transmission opportunities to sort of in the pathogens interest to not be so

the pathogens interest to not be so

the pathogens interest to not be so virulent that you can't get carried on

virulent that you can't get carried on

virulent that you can't get carried on you know that you end up in sort of a

you know that you end up in sort of a

you know that you end up in sort of a dead end host essentially so they have

dead end host essentially so they have

dead end host essentially so they have to balance those two things out so

to balance those two things out so

to balance those two things out so that's just a way I cope with had the

that's just a way I cope with had the

that's just a way I cope with had the fact that we live in a world of

fact that we live in a world of

fact that we live in a world of pathogens around us you know is is it's

pathogens around us you know is is it's

pathogens around us you know is is it's not really in their interest

not really in their interest

not really in their interest evolutionarily speaking to be like

evolutionarily speaking to be like

evolutionarily speaking to be like really really deadly that's that's why I

really really deadly that's that's why I

really really deadly that's that's why I saw it the first stars died out that

saw it the first stars died out that

saw it the first stars died out that that virus is extinct now it basically

that virus is extinct now it basically

that virus is extinct now it basically just burnt itself out because it was it

just burnt itself out because it was it

just burnt itself out because it was it wasn't very it wasn't transmissible

wasn't very it wasn't transmissible

wasn't very it wasn't transmissible enough it was too deadly so that's

enough it was too deadly so that's

enough it was too deadly so that's something that I always kind of keep in

something that I always kind of keep in

something that I always kind of keep in mind is it just in terms of like

mind is it just in terms of like

mind is it just in terms of like perspective it helps me but the other

perspective it helps me but the other

perspective it helps me but the other thing is I think what we're seeing today

thing is I think what we're seeing today

thing is I think what we're seeing today is you know people really coming

is you know people really coming

is you know people really coming together because we don't have

together because we don't have

together because we don't have technology you know when we have a tool

technology you know when we have a tool

technology you know when we have a tool when we have a product then we can more

when we have a product then we can more

when we have a product then we can more easily say well I'm just gonna get my

easily say well I'm just gonna get my

easily say well I'm just gonna get my piece of it I'm going to get my

piece of it I'm going to get my

piece of it I'm going to get my prescription and my pill and my vaccine

prescription and my pill and my vaccine

prescription and my pill and my vaccine in my shot and then you know I don't

in my shot and then you know I don't

in my shot and then you know I don't need to mind what other people are doing

need to mind what other people are doing

need to mind what other people are doing it's not going to matter as much to me

it's not going to matter as much to me

it's not going to matter as much to me it becomes a very individual response

it becomes a very individual response

it becomes a very individual response and I think what we're seeing today is

and I think what we're seeing today is

and I think what we're seeing today is the need for collective action and

the need for collective action and

the need for collective action and solidarity and we're seeing that across

solidarity and we're seeing that across

solidarity and we're seeing that across societies you know with you know

societies you know with you know

societies you know with you know governments sharing information

governments sharing information

governments sharing information scientists and collaborating and whole

scientists and collaborating and whole

scientists and collaborating and whole new ways that we haven't seen before you

new ways that we haven't seen before you

new ways that we haven't seen before you know global populations collaborating

know global populations collaborating

know global populations collaborating and connecting and all these

and connecting and all these

and connecting and all these new ways and sort of having this common

new ways and sort of having this common

new ways and sort of having this common experience this shared experience it's a

experience this shared experience it's a

experience this shared experience it's a tragic experience it's going to be so

tragic experience it's going to be so

tragic experience it's going to be so traumatic for so many of us but we're

traumatic for so many of us but we're

traumatic for so many of us but we're all going through it together and I and

all going through it together and I and

all going through it together and I and I'm hopeful that out of that something

I'm hopeful that out of that something

I'm hopeful that out of that something good will come for all of us

good will come for all of us

good will come for all of us me too well thank you so much for

me too well thank you so much for

me too well thank you so much for joining us and sharing your insights and

joining us and sharing your insights and

joining us and sharing your insights and wisdom Sonya I'm gonna say goodbye

wisdom Sonya I'm gonna say goodbye

wisdom Sonya I'm gonna say goodbye because I think we're out of time is

because I think we're out of time is

because I think we're out of time is that right Whitney yeah that's right

that right Whitney yeah that's right

that right Whitney yeah that's right thank you so much Sonya it was really

thank you so much Sonya it was really

thank you so much Sonya it was really great to have you and to hear your

great to have you and to hear your

great to have you and to hear your conversation but David here be well by

conversation but David here be well by

conversation but David here be well by Sonya

Sonya

Sonya they say it's