How to pronounce "kers"

hello everybody happy 2025 wherever you

hello everybody happy 2025 wherever you

hello everybody happy 2025 wherever you are it is January the 6th it is snowing

are it is January the 6th it is snowing

are it is January the 6th it is snowing here in New York it is our first full

here in New York it is our first full

here in New York it is our first full week back in the office and our minds

week back in the office and our minds

week back in the office and our minds are naturally turning to whatever is

are naturally turning to whatever is

are naturally turning to whatever is coming in the year ahead now as we all

coming in the year ahead now as we all

coming in the year ahead now as we all know there is a lot going on in the

know there is a lot going on in the

know there is a lot going on in the world from ongoing Wars to technological

world from ongoing Wars to technological

world from ongoing Wars to technological uncertainty to the ever shifting

uncertainty to the ever shifting

uncertainty to the ever shifting landscape of global political landscape

landscape of global political landscape

landscape of global political landscape I am looking at you just Trudeau who

I am looking at you just Trudeau who

I am looking at you just Trudeau who resigned from the prime ministership

resigned from the prime ministership

resigned from the prime ministership just today it is a wild world out there

just today it is a wild world out there

just today it is a wild world out there risk it seems is everywhere so who

risk it seems is everywhere so who

risk it seems is everywhere so who better to help us understand the nature

better to help us understand the nature

better to help us understand the nature of those risks and what we might do

of those risks and what we might do

of those risks and what we might do about them than president of Eurasia

about them than president of Eurasia

about them than president of Eurasia group and GZ media Ian brema joining us

group and GZ media Ian brema joining us

group and GZ media Ian brema joining us now hi Ian happy New Year Helen Happy

now hi Ian happy New Year Helen Happy

now hi Ian happy New Year Helen Happy New Year to you so you have just

New Year to you so you have just

New Year to you so you have just published your annual list of top risks

published your annual list of top risks

published your annual list of top risks of 2025 a hotly anticipated report that

of 2025 a hotly anticipated report that

of 2025 a hotly anticipated report that provides the worst bedtime reading known

provides the worst bedtime reading known

provides the worst bedtime reading known to man and we are going to go through

to man and we are going to go through

to man and we are going to go through some of the risks that you have

some of the risks that you have

some of the risks that you have identified now the first one the top top

identified now the first one the top top

identified now the first one the top top risk if you will is called the g0o wins

risk if you will is called the g0o wins

risk if you will is called the g0o wins and as I understand it the win that

and as I understand it the win that

and as I understand it the win that you're talking about here is actually a

you're talking about here is actually a

you're talking about here is actually a Global Leadership vacuum is is that

Global Leadership vacuum is is that

Global Leadership vacuum is is that right and why is this your number one

right and why is this your number one

right and why is this your number one risk this year it is I guess a lot of

risk this year it is I guess a lot of

risk this year it is I guess a lot of people would be wondering well shouldn't

people would be wondering well shouldn't

people would be wondering well shouldn't the United States and I mean president

the United States and I mean president

the United States and I mean president Trump coming in and he's very you know

Trump coming in and he's very you know

Trump coming in and he's very you know sort of unpredictable and he's going to

sort of unpredictable and he's going to

sort of unpredictable and he's going to break a lot of China including some

break a lot of China including some

break a lot of China including some literally uh isn't that you know the top

literally uh isn't that you know the top

literally uh isn't that you know the top risk not not at all actually he's the

risk not not at all actually he's the

risk not not at all actually he's the leading symptom and in many ways the top

leading symptom and in many ways the top

leading symptom and in many ways the top beneficiary of the g0o world and it's

beneficiary of the g0o world and it's

beneficiary of the g0o world and it's the global issue it's the fact that you

the global issue it's the fact that you

the global issue it's the fact that you have lots of global challenges lots of

have lots of global challenges lots of

have lots of global challenges lots of global opportunities but no Global

global opportunities but no Global

global opportunities but no Global Leadership the United States is by far

Leadership the United States is by far

Leadership the United States is by far the most powerful country in the world

the most powerful country in the world

the most powerful country in the world and it is not interested in providing

and it is not interested in providing

and it is not interested in providing collective security or promoting Global

collective security or promoting Global

collective security or promoting Global free trade architecture or promoting

free trade architecture or promoting

free trade architecture or promoting democracy or common values of rule of

democracy or common values of rule of

democracy or common values of rule of law it's much more transactional much

law it's much more transactional much

law it's much more transactional much more I'll get a deal with you and by the

more I'll get a deal with you and by the

more I'll get a deal with you and by the way I'm more powerful than you are so

way I'm more powerful than you are so

way I'm more powerful than you are so you're going to have to do much more of

you're going to have to do much more of

you're going to have to do much more of what I want in other words it's

what I want in other words it's

what I want in other words it's increasingly a much more Chinese

increasingly a much more Chinese

increasingly a much more Chinese perspective on how one engages in global

perspective on how one engages in global

perspective on how one engages in global Affairs or dare I say it's a Return To

Affairs or dare I say it's a Return To

Affairs or dare I say it's a Return To Rule of the Jungle to law of the Jungle

Rule of the Jungle to law of the Jungle

Rule of the Jungle to law of the Jungle and other countries are much weaker you

and other countries are much weaker you

and other countries are much weaker you already mentioned Justin Trudeau you

already mentioned Justin Trudeau you

already mentioned Justin Trudeau you could have easily mentioned uh soon to

could have easily mentioned uh soon to

could have easily mentioned uh soon to be ex-president Yun from South Korea

be ex-president Yun from South Korea

be ex-president Yun from South Korea working his way through impeachment

working his way through impeachment

working his way through impeachment getting confirmed by the Supreme Court

getting confirmed by the Supreme Court

getting confirmed by the Supreme Court constitutional Court there you could

constitutional Court there you could

constitutional Court there you could have mentioned the German government in

have mentioned the German government in

have mentioned the German government in disarray the French government um in

disarray the French government um in

disarray the French government um in disarray um go on and on countries

disarray um go on and on countries

disarray um go on and on countries around the world that are friends or

around the world that are friends or

around the world that are friends or adversaries of the United States are

adversaries of the United States are

adversaries of the United States are just in a weaker position and they are

just in a weaker position and they are

just in a weaker position and they are playing defense so they're not trying to

playing defense so they're not trying to

playing defense so they're not trying to say oh we'll be global leaders since

say oh we'll be global leaders since

say oh we'll be global leaders since you're not going to be we'll promote

you're not going to be we'll promote

you're not going to be we'll promote rule of law it's mostly can we stay out

rule of law it's mostly can we stay out

rule of law it's mostly can we stay out of the headlines and not get crosswise

of the headlines and not get crosswise

of the headlines and not get crosswise with either the Americans or the Chinese

with either the Americans or the Chinese

with either the Americans or the Chinese and so that reality that a g0o World

and so that reality that a g0o World

and so that reality that a g0o World Disorder a lack of Global Leadership

Disorder a lack of Global Leadership

Disorder a lack of Global Leadership that we've seen coming for 10 years but

that we've seen coming for 10 years but

that we've seen coming for 10 years but this year really is you know the the

this year really is you know the the

this year really is you know the the dominant theme for how geopolitics runs

dominant theme for how geopolitics runs

dominant theme for how geopolitics runs that is weaving its way through all of

that is weaving its way through all of

that is weaving its way through all of the risks that we see around the world

the risks that we see around the world

the risks that we see around the world whether it comes from the United States

whether it comes from the United States

whether it comes from the United States or from the US China relationship the US

or from the US China relationship the US

or from the US China relationship the US Mexico relationship it comes from

Mexico relationship it comes from

Mexico relationship it comes from ungoverned spaces you know Wars and

ungoverned spaces you know Wars and

ungoverned spaces you know Wars and power Vacuums in the Middle East in EUR

power Vacuums in the Middle East in EUR

power Vacuums in the Middle East in EUR Asia Europe all of that ultimately is

Asia Europe all of that ultimately is

Asia Europe all of that ultimately is coming from the g0 not a G7 not a G20

coming from the g0 not a G7 not a G20

coming from the g0 not a G7 not a G20 win

win

win it all right so let's dive into the

it all right so let's dive into the

it all right so let's dive into the United States let's talk about what's

United States let's talk about what's

United States let's talk about what's going to happen and what is to come in

going to happen and what is to come in

going to happen and what is to come in the year ahead Trump is coming back into

the year ahead Trump is coming back into

the year ahead Trump is coming back into Power he is going to be a lot more

Power he is going to be a lot more

Power he is going to be a lot more organized he knows a lot more this time

organized he knows a lot more this time

organized he knows a lot more this time around than he did last time around so

around than he did last time around so

around than he did last time around so he actually features as the rule of dawn

he actually features as the rule of dawn

he actually features as the rule of dawn on your list of risks talk about that

on your list of risks talk about that

on your list of risks talk about that and talk about what we should be

and talk about what we should be

and talk about what we should be watching as we as we watch the new

watching as we as we watch the new

watching as we as we watch the new president come come into office well as

president come come into office well as

president come come into office well as I said it's a feature not a bug

I said it's a feature not a bug

I said it's a feature not a bug uh that president-elect Trump is

uh that president-elect Trump is

uh that president-elect Trump is unpredictable and his supporters will

unpredictable and his supporters will

unpredictable and his supporters will say that's how he you know keeps

say that's how he you know keeps

say that's how he you know keeps everyone guessing um and he gets things

everyone guessing um and he gets things

everyone guessing um and he gets things done as a consequence he's got much more

done as a consequence he's got much more

done as a consequence he's got much more Consolidated power today not only

Consolidated power today not only

Consolidated power today not only because his allies and his adversaries

because his allies and his adversaries

because his allies and his adversaries are weaker but also because he controls

are weaker but also because he controls

are weaker but also because he controls the Republican party doesn't need their

the Republican party doesn't need their

the Republican party doesn't need their cels like they did in 2017 they need his

cels like they did in 2017 they need his

cels like they did in 2017 they need his he's got a much more Consolidated

he's got a much more Consolidated

he's got a much more Consolidated Administration around him it doesn't

Administration around him it doesn't

Administration around him it doesn't have you know Mike Pence and and others

have you know Mike Pence and and others

have you know Mike Pence and and others like Mike Pompeo um who were you know

like Mike Pompeo um who were you know

like Mike Pompeo um who were you know sort of adults from the Republican

sort of adults from the Republican

sort of adults from the Republican establishment he has a group of people

establishment he has a group of people

establishment he has a group of people that have distinguished themselves with

that have distinguished themselves with

that have distinguished themselves with their complete loyalty to him so you

their complete loyalty to him so you

their complete loyalty to him so you know the founding fathers of the United

know the founding fathers of the United

know the founding fathers of the United States were worried about what would

States were worried about what would

States were worried about what would happen if you didn't have proper checks

happen if you didn't have proper checks

happen if you didn't have proper checks and balances on the executive If instead

and balances on the executive If instead

and balances on the executive If instead of rule of law you had rule of man well

of rule of law you had rule of man well

of rule of law you had rule of man well I mean increasing what you have is

I mean increasing what you have is

I mean increasing what you have is Donald Trump and what he decides and

Donald Trump and what he decides and

Donald Trump and what he decides and what he wants is what you're going to

what he wants is what you're going to

what he wants is what you're going to have to respond to and that's true

have to respond to and that's true

have to respond to and that's true domestically especially as he looks to

domestically especially as he looks to

domestically especially as he looks to politicize um the power Ministries in

politicize um the power Ministries in

politicize um the power Ministries in the US like the FBI the Department of

the US like the FBI the Department of

the US like the FBI the Department of Justice the IRS um in a way that he

Justice the IRS um in a way that he

Justice the IRS um in a way that he believes that they were weaponized

believes that they were weaponized

believes that they were weaponized against him by democrats and the

against him by democrats and the

against him by democrats and the so-called deep state to investigate him

so-called deep state to investigate him

so-called deep state to investigate him to arrest him you know to to throw him

to arrest him you know to to throw him

to arrest him you know to to throw him in jail uh as they want wanted to um

in jail uh as they want wanted to um

in jail uh as they want wanted to um he's now going to take that and and use

he's now going to take that and and use

he's now going to take that and and use that against his enemies but also

that against his enemies but also

that against his enemies but also internationally so this rule of dawn

internationally so this rule of dawn

internationally so this rule of dawn which is going to lead to a lot of wins

which is going to lead to a lot of wins

which is going to lead to a lot of wins for the United States in the early days

for the United States in the early days

for the United States in the early days it's not that Trump is going to fail

it's not that Trump is going to fail

it's not that Trump is going to fail everywhere he tries to implement policy

everywhere he tries to implement policy

everywhere he tries to implement policy but that uncertainty that

but that uncertainty that

but that uncertainty that unpredictability is of course an

unpredictability is of course an

unpredictability is of course an enormous risk for everyone else dealing

enormous risk for everyone else dealing

enormous risk for everyone else dealing with him around the world I mean just

with him around the world I mean just

with him around the world I mean just today you have the United Kingdom um in

today you have the United Kingdom um in

today you have the United Kingdom um in crisis domestically not because they're

crisis domestically not because they're

crisis domestically not because they're trying to figure out how do we respond

trying to figure out how do we respond

trying to figure out how do we respond to Elon Musk you know who is not only by

to Elon Musk you know who is not only by

to Elon Musk you know who is not only by far the wealthiest person in the world

far the wealthiest person in the world

far the wealthiest person in the world but also is the closest adviser spending

but also is the closest adviser spending

but also is the closest adviser spending the most time with Trump and so you know

the most time with Trump and so you know

the most time with Trump and so you know he's attacking uh the the British

he's attacking uh the the British

he's attacking uh the the British government directly and in their view

government directly and in their view

government directly and in their view putting members of their cabinet in

putting members of their cabinet in

putting members of their cabinet in personal Danger

personal Danger

personal Danger and they have no idea how to respond

and they have no idea how to respond

and they have no idea how to respond because if they hit Elon are they then

because if they hit Elon are they then

because if they hit Elon are they then hitting Trump too is is that going to

hitting Trump too is is that going to

hitting Trump too is is that going to lead to blowback from the United States

lead to blowback from the United States

lead to blowback from the United States this is an immediate crisis for them in

this is an immediate crisis for them in

this is an immediate crisis for them in an unprecedented way um since the United

an unprecedented way um since the United

an unprecedented way um since the United States has become uh the world's

States has become uh the world's

States has become uh the world's superpower that that's what we mean when

superpower that that's what we mean when

superpower that that's what we mean when we talk about the rule of dawn you said

we talk about the rule of dawn you said

we talk about the rule of dawn you said something really interesting in the

something really interesting in the

something really interesting in the report that I just want to get you to

report that I just want to get you to

report that I just want to get you to say more about which is that democracy

say more about which is that democracy

say more about which is that democracy itself will not be threatened the US is

itself will not be threatened the US is

itself will not be threatened the US is is not hungry there has been a lot of

is not hungry there has been a lot of

is not hungry there has been a lot of talk over the last 48 years about the

talk over the last 48 years about the

talk over the last 48 years about the state of democracy and about the imperal

state of democracy and about the imperal

state of democracy and about the imperal state of democracy so I'm really

state of democracy so I'm really

state of democracy so I'm really interested to hear that you don't

interested to hear that you don't

interested to hear that you don't actually think that this is under threat

actually think that this is under threat

actually think that this is under threat so just talk more about that well I I

so just talk more about that well I I

so just talk more about that well I I don't believe uh that the United States

don't believe uh that the United States

don't believe uh that the United States is on the precipice of dictatorship and

is on the precipice of dictatorship and

is on the precipice of dictatorship and I also continue to see significant

I also continue to see significant

I also continue to see significant resilience in institutions that can push

resilience in institutions that can push

resilience in institutions that can push back against Trump's successes I mean we

back against Trump's successes I mean we

back against Trump's successes I mean we saw that you know with the effort to

saw that you know with the effort to

saw that you know with the effort to appoint Matt Gates um as attorney

appoint Matt Gates um as attorney

appoint Matt Gates um as attorney general running the doj and you know

general running the doj and you know

general running the doj and you know within two weeks Trump backed off and he

within two weeks Trump backed off and he

within two weeks Trump backed off and he hasn't said anything about get S Trump

hasn't said anything about get S Trump

hasn't said anything about get S Trump is by the way incredibly impressive

is by the way incredibly impressive

is by the way incredibly impressive about going really hard in favor of

about going really hard in favor of

about going really hard in favor of someone and then throwing them

someone and then throwing them

someone and then throwing them completely under the bus when he

completely under the bus when he

completely under the bus when he realizes that he's lost that one just

realizes that he's lost that one just

realizes that he's lost that one just just bounces off of them right but it's

just bounces off of them right but it's

just bounces off of them right but it's not just that it's that you still have a

not just that it's that you still have a

not just that it's that you still have a professional military in the United

professional military in the United

professional military in the United States still have an independent

States still have an independent

States still have an independent Judiciary yes 63 conservative appointees

Judiciary yes 63 conservative appointees

Judiciary yes 63 conservative appointees but independent uh from the president

but independent uh from the president

but independent uh from the president from the executive and continues to act

from the executive and continues to act

from the executive and continues to act uh that way uh you you have a very very

uh that way uh you you have a very very

uh that way uh you you have a very very thin margin um in for republicans in the

thin margin um in for republicans in the

thin margin um in for republicans in the house um you also have more adults that

house um you also have more adults that

house um you also have more adults that are institutionalists in the Senate um

are institutionalists in the Senate um

are institutionalists in the Senate um and finally of course the US is a

and finally of course the US is a

and finally of course the US is a federal system uh with with Governors

federal system uh with with Governors

federal system uh with with Governors that matter and elections system that is

that matter and elections system that is

that matter and elections system that is Run state by state um and then in two

Run state by state um and then in two

Run state by state um and then in two years time you're going to have midterms

years time you're going to have midterms

years time you're going to have midterms and frankly it's more likely than not

and frankly it's more likely than not

and frankly it's more likely than not the Democrats will come back in the

the Democrats will come back in the

the Democrats will come back in the House of Representatives then so I I

House of Representatives then so I I

House of Representatives then so I I take very seriously the fact that the

take very seriously the fact that the

take very seriously the fact that the United States is becoming more

United States is becoming more

United States is becoming more structurally corrupt that the system is

structurally corrupt that the system is

structurally corrupt that the system is increasingly captured by a small number

increasingly captured by a small number

increasingly captured by a small number of incredibly wealthy and Powerful

of incredibly wealthy and Powerful

of incredibly wealthy and Powerful special interest that that does not

special interest that that does not

special interest that that does not reflect a representative democracy that

reflect a representative democracy that

reflect a representative democracy that that has been getting pretty bad since

that has been getting pretty bad since

that has been getting pretty bad since you and I have known each other hell and

you and I have known each other hell and

you and I have known each other hell and far worse than any other Advanced

far worse than any other Advanced

far worse than any other Advanced industrial democracy and it's getting

industrial democracy and it's getting

industrial democracy and it's getting worse still in the incoming Trump

worse still in the incoming Trump

worse still in the incoming Trump Administration but that is very

Administration but that is very

Administration but that is very difficult from saying very different

difficult from saying very different

difficult from saying very different from saying that the US democracy is

from saying that the US democracy is

from saying that the US democracy is about to fall apart or that uh Trump is

about to fall apart or that uh Trump is

about to fall apart or that uh Trump is going to be able to ensure that he can

going to be able to ensure that he can

going to be able to ensure that he can stay in power he would change the

stay in power he would change the

stay in power he would change the Constitution and be allowed to run at 82

Constitution and be allowed to run at 82

Constitution and be allowed to run at 82 for a third term I think that this

for a third term I think that this

for a third term I think that this virally no chance uh that that could

virally no chance uh that that could

virally no chance uh that that could happen for example so there is a lot of

happen for example so there is a lot of

happen for example so there is a lot of uncertainty and instability coming from

uncertainty and instability coming from

uncertainty and instability coming from the institutional erosion that is

the institutional erosion that is

the institutional erosion that is affected by the Incredible strength of

affected by the Incredible strength of

affected by the Incredible strength of one man and those around him as

one man and those around him as

one man and those around him as president but that's very different from

president but that's very different from

president but that's very different from saying the Republic is facing

saying the Republic is facing

saying the Republic is facing existential danger the latter is not

existential danger the latter is not

existential danger the latter is not true I'm very glad to hear you say that

true I'm very glad to hear you say that

true I'm very glad to hear you say that okay let's talk about economics of

okay let's talk about economics of

okay let's talk about economics of course the state of the economy was a

course the state of the economy was a

course the state of the economy was a huge issue in the election and people

huge issue in the election and people

huge issue in the election and people really bought into the idea that Trump

really bought into the idea that Trump

really bought into the idea that Trump could bring about a healthy and strong

could bring about a healthy and strong

could bring about a healthy and strong American economy you have trumponomics

American economy you have trumponomics

American economy you have trumponomics on your list of risks so talk to us

on your list of risks so talk to us

on your list of risks so talk to us about whether you think people are

about whether you think people are

about whether you think people are buying it are you buying it what's going

buying it are you buying it what's going

buying it are you buying it what's going to happen with the economy coming

to happen with the economy coming

to happen with the economy coming up the Trump uh risk

up the Trump uh risk

up the Trump uh risk economically um comes from the fact that

economically um comes from the fact that

economically um comes from the fact that uh his impact uh of his policies on the

uh his impact uh of his policies on the

uh his impact uh of his policies on the US and global economy uh I believe is

US and global economy uh I believe is

US and global economy uh I believe is going to be significantly larger uh than

going to be significantly larger uh than

going to be significantly larger uh than uh what is presently priced in um and

uh what is presently priced in um and

uh what is presently priced in um and there are a couple of points here uh one

there are a couple of points here uh one

there are a couple of points here uh one is on tariffs um he he to the extent

is on tariffs um he he to the extent

is on tariffs um he he to the extent that he has an

that he has an

that he has an ideological um you know sort of poll uh

ideological um you know sort of poll uh

ideological um you know sort of poll uh it's really about the utility of tariffs

it's really about the utility of tariffs

it's really about the utility of tariffs as the principal policy tool for

as the principal policy tool for

as the principal policy tool for economic outcomes and National Security

economic outcomes and National Security

economic outcomes and National Security outcomes that he wants and again he has

outcomes that he wants and again he has

outcomes that he wants and again he has a team that believes that supports him

a team that believes that supports him

a team that believes that supports him and is very aligned to him We're clearly

and is very aligned to him We're clearly

and is very aligned to him We're clearly going to see that uh with us relations

going to see that uh with us relations

going to see that uh with us relations with China also appears on the list that

with China also appears on the list that

with China also appears on the list that that relationship which has been

that relationship which has been

that relationship which has been comparatively well managed in the last

comparatively well managed in the last

comparatively well managed in the last 12 months even though there's no trust

12 months even though there's no trust

12 months even though there's no trust in it is likely to get it's likely to

in it is likely to get it's likely to

in it is likely to get it's likely to deteriorate significantly but also

deteriorate significantly but also

deteriorate significantly but also tariffs against other countries Friends

tariffs against other countries Friends

tariffs against other countries Friends of the United States where the US is

of the United States where the US is

of the United States where the US is running significant trade deficits much

running significant trade deficits much

running significant trade deficits much larg

larg

larg than in 2017 when Trump was President

than in 2017 when Trump was President

than in 2017 when Trump was President you would have seen in the Washington

you would have seen in the Washington

you would have seen in the Washington Post earlier today there was a leak that

Post earlier today there was a leak that

Post earlier today there was a leak that said oh he's only thinking about tariffs

said oh he's only thinking about tariffs

said oh he's only thinking about tariffs vers on friends in a few National

vers on friends in a few National

vers on friends in a few National Security areas he's going to back off

Security areas he's going to back off

Security areas he's going to back off the markets went up and Trump

the markets went up and Trump

the markets went up and Trump immediately put out a social media post

immediately put out a social media post

immediately put out a social media post saying absolutely not true um I'm tariff

saying absolutely not true um I'm tariff

saying absolutely not true um I'm tariff man I'm gonna do this so that's going to

man I'm gonna do this so that's going to

man I'm gonna do this so that's going to have a big impact on the global economy

have a big impact on the global economy

have a big impact on the global economy secondly he's very serious about getting

secondly he's very serious about getting

secondly he's very serious about getting illegal immigrants out he wants to

illegal immigrants out he wants to

illegal immigrants out he wants to deport them they're 15 to 20 million in

deport them they're 15 to 20 million in

deport them they're 15 to 20 million in the United States right now he's not

the United States right now he's not

the United States right now he's not going to get rid of 15 to 20 million but

going to get rid of 15 to 20 million but

going to get rid of 15 to 20 million but in his first year can he get rid of a

in his first year can he get rid of a

in his first year can he get rid of a million I think he can and over four

million I think he can and over four

million I think he can and over four years three to five million is very very

years three to five million is very very

years three to five million is very very plausible and and he was voted in and

plausible and and he was voted in and

plausible and and he was voted in and Harris and Biden earlier were voted out

Harris and Biden earlier were voted out

Harris and Biden earlier were voted out because in large part of not handling

because in large part of not handling

because in large part of not handling illegal immigration just as we've seen

illegal immigration just as we've seen

illegal immigration just as we've seen play out across all of Europe over the

play out across all of Europe over the

play out across all of Europe over the last decade you're seeing play out in

last decade you're seeing play out in

last decade you're seeing play out in the United States now I'm not saying

the United States now I'm not saying

the United States now I'm not saying that it's wrong for him to try to remove

that it's wrong for him to try to remove

that it's wrong for him to try to remove illegal immigrants from the United

illegal immigrants from the United

illegal immigrants from the United States I'm saying there's going to be an

States I'm saying there's going to be an

States I'm saying there's going to be an impact the impact is labor costs are

impact the impact is labor costs are

impact the impact is labor costs are going up these people are also consumers

going up these people are also consumers

going up these people are also consumers in the US economy not when they're not

in the US economy not when they're not

in the US economy not when they're not there anymore they're taxpayers Medicare

there anymore they're taxpayers Medicare

there anymore they're taxpayers Medicare Social Security not when they're not

Social Security not when they're not

Social Security not when they're not there anymore right so there's going to

there anymore right so there's going to

there anymore right so there's going to be a meaningful impact on inflation and

be a meaningful impact on inflation and

be a meaningful impact on inflation and a fiscal constraint that comes from

a fiscal constraint that comes from

a fiscal constraint that comes from Trump putting these policies in place

Trump putting these policies in place

Trump putting these policies in place and and legal workers are not going to

and and legal workers are not going to

and and legal workers are not going to fill that Gap so you've got two areas of

fill that Gap so you've got two areas of

fill that Gap so you've got two areas of of extraordinary priority for the Trump

of extraordinary priority for the Trump

of extraordinary priority for the Trump Administration that are not priced into

Administration that are not priced into

Administration that are not priced into the market that are going to slow growth

the market that are going to slow growth

the market that are going to slow growth you also have um of course Market

you also have um of course Market

you also have um of course Market positive things he'll do like he's going

positive things he'll do like he's going

positive things he'll do like he's going to continue to reduce regulation and I'm

to continue to reduce regulation and I'm

to continue to reduce regulation and I'm sure that will be beneficial to the

sure that will be beneficial to the

sure that will be beneficial to the financial sector and crypto and uh

financial sector and crypto and uh

financial sector and crypto and uh fossil fuel companies and others he's

fossil fuel companies and others he's

fossil fuel companies and others he's also intending to um roll over the

also intending to um roll over the

also intending to um roll over the 2017 uh tax reductions on high net worth

2017 uh tax reductions on high net worth

2017 uh tax reductions on high net worth individuals uh and on corporations but

individuals uh and on corporations but

individuals uh and on corporations but the regulatory roll back most of that

the regulatory roll back most of that

the regulatory roll back most of that loow hanging fruit was already picked in

loow hanging fruit was already picked in

loow hanging fruit was already picked in his first term and it's an extension of

his first term and it's an extension of

his first term and it's an extension of the tax cuts it's not a further

the tax cuts it's not a further

the tax cuts it's not a further reduction me meanwhile um the

reduction me meanwhile um the

reduction me meanwhile um the macroeconomic environment is worse than

macroeconomic environment is worse than

macroeconomic environment is worse than it was before um companies are trading

it was before um companies are trading

it was before um companies are trading at a much higher multiple um you've got

at a much higher multiple um you've got

at a much higher multiple um you've got higher inflation you've got higher debt

higher inflation you've got higher debt

higher inflation you've got higher debt levels it's much more challenging for

levels it's much more challenging for

levels it's much more challenging for Trump to move the needle so what I'm

Trump to move the needle so what I'm

Trump to move the needle so what I'm saying is that Trump onomics actually is

saying is that Trump onomics actually is

saying is that Trump onomics actually is likely to be a much more significant

likely to be a much more significant

likely to be a much more significant downside risk this time around precisely

downside risk this time around precisely

downside risk this time around precisely because he's going to implement the

because he's going to implement the

because he's going to implement the policies he wants to he will be success

policies he wants to he will be success

policies he wants to he will be success uccessful politically and and then

uccessful politically and and then

uccessful politically and and then people people do not expect this right

people people do not expect this right

people people do not expect this right now I want to stick with immigration for

now I want to stick with immigration for

now I want to stick with immigration for a moment I think one of the lasting

a moment I think one of the lasting

a moment I think one of the lasting images that came out of the last

images that came out of the last

images that came out of the last presidency was of separated families on

presidency was of separated families on

presidency was of separated families on the southern border of the United States

the southern border of the United States

the southern border of the United States do do you think that we're going to see

do do you think that we're going to see

do do you think that we're going to see this type of visual again and how do you

this type of visual again and how do you

this type of visual again and how do you think he'll deal with that if we do and

think he'll deal with that if we do and

think he'll deal with that if we do and do you think that we'll see the same

do you think that we'll see the same

do you think that we'll see the same type of response to that that we saw in

type of response to that that we saw in

type of response to that that we saw in that first term the in the first term um

that first term the in the first term um

that first term the in the first term um the Mexican uh president Lopez oor uh

the Mexican uh president Lopez oor uh

the Mexican uh president Lopez oor uh basically cried Uncle uh it was one of

basically cried Uncle uh it was one of

basically cried Uncle uh it was one of Trump's successes uh The Mexican

Trump's successes uh The Mexican

Trump's successes uh The Mexican government was told that if you don't

government was told that if you don't

government was told that if you don't tighten the southern border of Mexico

tighten the southern border of Mexico

tighten the southern border of Mexico because so many of the people that come

because so many of the people that come

because so many of the people that come to the United States over the southern

to the United States over the southern

to the United States over the southern border are come coming from other

border are come coming from other

border are come coming from other countries across Central and Latin

countries across Central and Latin

countries across Central and Latin America um that you they're going to get

America um that you they're going to get

America um that you they're going to get hit by much harder tariffs and not only

hit by much harder tariffs and not only

hit by much harder tariffs and not only did The Mexican government uh actually

did The Mexican government uh actually

did The Mexican government uh actually take that seriously and so the numbers

take that seriously and so the numbers

take that seriously and so the numbers came down but they ultimately uh had a

came down but they ultimately uh had a

came down but they ultimately uh had a success um in the signing

success um in the signing

success um in the signing usmca uh replacing NAFTA so Mexico I

usmca uh replacing NAFTA so Mexico I

usmca uh replacing NAFTA so Mexico I would argue in Trump's first term was

would argue in Trump's first term was

would argue in Trump's first term was pretty positive um this time around

pretty positive um this time around

pretty positive um this time around Trump has bigger problems with Mexico

Trump has bigger problems with Mexico

Trump has bigger problems with Mexico than he did last time around um it's not

than he did last time around um it's not

than he did last time around um it's not just um about uh illegal immigrants

just um about uh illegal immigrants

just um about uh illegal immigrants though that's one big part of it it's

though that's one big part of it it's

though that's one big part of it it's also the fenel crisis um it's a much

also the fenel crisis um it's a much

also the fenel crisis um it's a much bigger trade deficit and it's also

bigger trade deficit and it's also

bigger trade deficit and it's also Chinese Goods that are coming through

Chinese Goods that are coming through

Chinese Goods that are coming through Mexico into the United States he wants

Mexico into the United States he wants

Mexico into the United States he wants to address all four of those he does not

to address all four of those he does not

to address all four of those he does not have a single person very strong running

have a single person very strong running

have a single person very strong running point on the relationship like he did

point on the relationship like he did

point on the relationship like he did with Robert lighthiser and Jared Kushner

with Robert lighthiser and Jared Kushner

with Robert lighthiser and Jared Kushner uh facilitating the conversations behind

uh facilitating the conversations behind

uh facilitating the conversations behind the scenes that's not the case this time

the scenes that's not the case this time

the scenes that's not the case this time around there's a lot of cooks in that

around there's a lot of cooks in that

around there's a lot of cooks in that relationship also Trump had a good

relationship also Trump had a good

relationship also Trump had a good relationship with Lopez oor Lopez oor is

relationship with Lopez oor Lopez oor is

relationship with Lopez oor Lopez oor is kind of a far-left

kind of a far-left

kind of a far-left populist ID logically very different

populist ID logically very different

populist ID logically very different from Trump but you know kind of

from Trump but you know kind of

from Trump but you know kind of grandiose charismatic roughly similar

grandiose charismatic roughly similar

grandiose charismatic roughly similar age and they liked each other they got

age and they liked each other they got

age and they liked each other they got along really well Claudia shine Bal I

along really well Claudia shine Bal I

along really well Claudia shine Bal I find very impressive but Helen she's a

find very impressive but Helen she's a

find very impressive but Helen she's a woman she's a PhD environmental

woman she's a PhD environmental

woman she's a PhD environmental scientist who got her degree at Berkeley

scientist who got her degree at Berkeley

scientist who got her degree at Berkeley I mean you couldn't find you couldn't

I mean you couldn't find you couldn't

I mean you couldn't find you couldn't dream up a demographic that would be

dream up a demographic that would be

dream up a demographic that would be more problematic in a personal

more problematic in a personal

more problematic in a personal relationship with Trump and so it's

relationship with Trump and so it's

relationship with Trump and so it's going to be hard for her to engage with

going to be hard for her to engage with

going to be hard for her to engage with him and get wins so I I I think that in

him and get wins so I I I think that in

him and get wins so I I I think that in the first year and let's also keep in

the first year and let's also keep in

the first year and let's also keep in mind this is on the back of a Mexican

mind this is on the back of a Mexican

mind this is on the back of a Mexican government that has had their peso get

government that has had their peso get

government that has had their peso get hammered uh for some of the

hammered uh for some of the

hammered uh for some of the Constitutional changes they're making

Constitutional changes they're making

Constitutional changes they're making like judicial reform in particular some

like judicial reform in particular some

like judicial reform in particular some social reforms as well the markets hate

social reforms as well the markets hate

social reforms as well the markets hate so the pesos just gotten destroyed um

so the pesos just gotten destroyed um

so the pesos just gotten destroyed um they have very little margin for error

they have very little margin for error

they have very little margin for error um in this first year year of trump in

um in this first year year of trump in

um in this first year year of trump in the relationship with the us so I think

the relationship with the us so I think

the relationship with the us so I think you know over four years us Mexico

you know over four years us Mexico

you know over four years us Mexico relations will be just fine but I think

relations will be just fine but I think

relations will be just fine but I think that in the first months of trump coming

that in the first months of trump coming

that in the first months of trump coming in uh it's going to be very very choppy

in uh it's going to be very very choppy

in uh it's going to be very very choppy Waters

Waters

Waters indeed what advice do you have for

indeed what advice do you have for

indeed what advice do you have for Claudia Shin bam who clearly she can't

Claudia Shin bam who clearly she can't

Claudia Shin bam who clearly she can't change the fact that she's a woman she

change the fact that she's a woman she

change the fact that she's a woman she can't change her educational background

can't change her educational background

can't change her educational background or anything about her she has a huge

or anything about her she has a huge

or anything about her she has a huge mandate from the Mexican population like

mandate from the Mexican population like

mandate from the Mexican population like what should she do to deal with Trump

what should she do to deal with Trump

what should she do to deal with Trump well give Trump wins early Mexico truly

well give Trump wins early Mexico truly

well give Trump wins early Mexico truly the Europeans can work together they're

the Europeans can work together they're

the Europeans can work together they're a large Marketplace they do business

a large Marketplace they do business

a large Marketplace they do business with lots of people around the world

with lots of people around the world

with lots of people around the world Mexico uh is only doing business with

Mexico uh is only doing business with

Mexico uh is only doing business with the United States they are fully

the United States they are fully

the United States they are fully integrated into the US supply chain they

integrated into the US supply chain they

integrated into the US supply chain they have no other place to go it would be

have no other place to go it would be

have no other place to go it would be like me advising the president of Lao

like me advising the president of Lao

like me advising the president of Lao how to deal with xiin ping you don't get

how to deal with xiin ping you don't get

how to deal with xiin ping you don't get to like hedge with the Americans or the

to like hedge with the Americans or the

to like hedge with the Americans or the Indians you've got one bet so they know

Indians you've got one bet so they know

Indians you've got one bet so they know that um I think a couple of things I

that um I think a couple of things I

that um I think a couple of things I would advise first uh and by the way I

would advise first uh and by the way I

would advise first uh and by the way I have advised um and and and I think her

have advised um and and and I think her

have advised um and and and I think her cabinet is very competent they're very

cabinet is very competent they're very

cabinet is very competent they're very technocratic um as opposed to the

technocratic um as opposed to the

technocratic um as opposed to the broader Marina party which is very

broader Marina party which is very

broader Marina party which is very popular but they're a new party and

popular but they're a new party and

popular but they're a new party and they've never they've never lost so

they've never they've never lost so

they've never they've never lost so they're overconfident what they think

they're overconfident what they think

they're overconfident what they think they can do it's going to be hard for

they can do it's going to be hard for

they can do it's going to be hard for her and she knows she needs to kind of

her and she knows she needs to kind of

her and she knows she needs to kind of get the party and get members of

get the party and get members of

get the party and get members of Congress under wraps and get her her

Congress under wraps and get her her

Congress under wraps and get her her cabinet taking the lead on all of this

cabinet taking the lead on all of this

cabinet taking the lead on all of this the easiest thing for them to do is kick

the easiest thing for them to do is kick

the easiest thing for them to do is kick the Chinese out there are a lot of

the Chinese out there are a lot of

the Chinese out there are a lot of places where you have Chinese parts that

places where you have Chinese parts that

places where you have Chinese parts that are actually passing through by the way

are actually passing through by the way

are actually passing through by the way Chinese investment into Mexico it's not

Chinese investment into Mexico it's not

Chinese investment into Mexico it's not creating Mexican jobs it's actually

creating Mexican jobs it's actually

creating Mexican jobs it's actually really angering in the textiles for

really angering in the textiles for

really angering in the textiles for example you've got a lot of small and

example you've got a lot of small and

example you've got a lot of small and medium Enterprises these are relatively

medium Enterprises these are relatively

medium Enterprises these are relatively poor and middle class Mexicans they're

poor and middle class Mexicans they're

poor and middle class Mexicans they're losing jobs because Chinese goods are

losing jobs because Chinese goods are

losing jobs because Chinese goods are coming in and undercutting them byd

coming in and undercutting them byd

coming in and undercutting them byd China set up shop and electric vehicles

China set up shop and electric vehicles

China set up shop and electric vehicles they're doing assembly they're not doing

they're doing assembly they're not doing

they're doing assembly they're not doing full manufacturing there very few jobs

full manufacturing there very few jobs

full manufacturing there very few jobs working for byd um in Mexico it's not

working for byd um in Mexico it's not

working for byd um in Mexico it's not like Ford it's not like GM so I I think

like Ford it's not like GM so I I think

like Ford it's not like GM so I I think it would benefit her from hitting China

it would benefit her from hitting China

it would benefit her from hitting China harder and earlier before her first

harder and earlier before her first

harder and earlier before her first meeting one-on-one with Trump she's had

meeting one-on-one with Trump she's had

meeting one-on-one with Trump she's had a phone call she hasn't gone to Mara

a phone call she hasn't gone to Mara

a phone call she hasn't gone to Mara Lago that was wise get her ducks in a

Lago that was wise get her ducks in a

Lago that was wise get her ducks in a row first that's what I would do I would

row first that's what I would do I would

row first that's what I would do I would also work on getting a good relationship

also work on getting a good relationship

also work on getting a good relationship with the incoming prime minister of

with the incoming prime minister of

with the incoming prime minister of Canada likely to be Pierre PV as soon as

Canada likely to be Pierre PV as soon as

Canada likely to be Pierre PV as soon as humanly possible because the Canadians

humanly possible because the Canadians

humanly possible because the Canadians will throw Mexico under a bus when usmca

will throw Mexico under a bus when usmca

will throw Mexico under a bus when usmca starts having negotiations Canadian

starts having negotiations Canadian

starts having negotiations Canadian leaders on the conservative side have

leaders on the conservative side have

leaders on the conservative side have made very clear hey we can have a good

made very clear hey we can have a good

made very clear hey we can have a good relationship with Trump we don't need

relationship with Trump we don't need

relationship with Trump we don't need Mexico right and NAFTA started off as a

Mexico right and NAFTA started off as a

Mexico right and NAFTA started off as a bilateral agreement between the US and

bilateral agreement between the US and

bilateral agreement between the US and Canada and it was only the US that said

Canada and it was only the US that said

Canada and it was only the US that said no we want Mexico let's make it

no we want Mexico let's make it

no we want Mexico let's make it trilateral they will try that again the

trilateral they will try that again the

trilateral they will try that again the Mexicans need to nip that in the butt

Mexicans need to nip that in the butt

Mexicans need to nip that in the butt and right now they really don't have a

and right now they really don't have a

and right now they really don't have a relationship with the Canadians and

relationship with the Canadians and

relationship with the Canadians and certainly not with the incoming

certainly not with the incoming

certainly not with the incoming conservatives that is a high priority in

conservatives that is a high priority in

conservatives that is a high priority in my view again that's something I have I

my view again that's something I have I

my view again that's something I have I have directly advised the leadership of

have directly advised the leadership of

have directly advised the leadership of Mexico all right let's stay um

Mexico all right let's stay um

Mexico all right let's stay um International let's talk about Russia um

International let's talk about Russia um

International let's talk about Russia um obviously the war with Ukraine has OCC

obviously the war with Ukraine has OCC

obviously the war with Ukraine has OCC Ed the headlines for a couple of years

Ed the headlines for a couple of years

Ed the headlines for a couple of years at this point you you seem to think that

at this point you you seem to think that

at this point you you seem to think that the ceasefire is coming but Russia is

the ceasefire is coming but Russia is

the ceasefire is coming but Russia is obviously still Rogue so talk to us

obviously still Rogue so talk to us

obviously still Rogue so talk to us about what we should be watching what we

about what we should be watching what we

about what we should be watching what we should be really paying attention to

should be really paying attention to

should be really paying attention to from Vladimir Putin and from Russia yeah

from Vladimir Putin and from Russia yeah

from Vladimir Putin and from Russia yeah Helen you and I first talked about this

Helen you and I first talked about this

Helen you and I first talked about this right after the invasion um and we've

right after the invasion um and we've

right after the invasion um and we've talked about it since uh back in January

talked about it since uh back in January

talked about it since uh back in January last year's top risks report um we had

last year's top risks report um we had

last year's top risks report um we had Russia Ukraine as our number three risk

Russia Ukraine as our number three risk

Russia Ukraine as our number three risk and we said that Ukraine was uh going to

and we said that Ukraine was uh going to

and we said that Ukraine was uh going to be partitioned which is not something I

be partitioned which is not something I

be partitioned which is not something I want at all uh but it was inevitable and

want at all uh but it was inevitable and

want at all uh but it was inevitable and now you've got just earlier today French

now you've got just earlier today French

now you've got just earlier today French president macron saying that zalinski is

president macron saying that zalinski is

president macron saying that zalinski is going to have to be realistic uh about

going to have to be realistic uh about

going to have to be realistic uh about what he's prepared to give up from a

what he's prepared to give up from a

what he's prepared to give up from a territorial perspective certainly that

territorial perspective certainly that

territorial perspective certainly that is Trump's perspective um and the

is Trump's perspective um and the

is Trump's perspective um and the ukrainians fully understand that they

ukrainians fully understand that they

ukrainians fully understand that they can't continue to fight the war the way

can't continue to fight the war the way

can't continue to fight the war the way they have um Russia also I mean you know

they have um Russia also I mean you know

they have um Russia also I mean you know they've got North Korean troops helping

they've got North Korean troops helping

they've got North Korean troops helping them now how much they're helping them

them now how much they're helping them

them now how much they're helping them is open to question there a lot of them

is open to question there a lot of them

is open to question there a lot of them getting killed um but they they could

getting killed um but they they could

getting killed um but they they could use a breather um and a ceasefire and

use a breather um and a ceasefire and

use a breather um and a ceasefire and Trump wants one and Trump has made very

Trump wants one and Trump has made very

Trump wants one and Trump has made very clear that if the ukrainians don't

clear that if the ukrainians don't

clear that if the ukrainians don't accept his deal he's going to cut off

accept his deal he's going to cut off

accept his deal he's going to cut off support and if the Russians don't accept

support and if the Russians don't accept

support and if the Russians don't accept his deal he's going to increase

his deal he's going to increase

his deal he's going to increase sanctions dramatically so I do think

sanctions dramatically so I do think

sanctions dramatically so I do think that over the course of the year we are

that over the course of the year we are

that over the course of the year we are likely to get a ceasefire now 2 point

likely to get a ceasefire now 2 point

likely to get a ceasefire now 2 point around that the first is before the

around that the first is before the

around that the first is before the ceasefire is actually Inked there's a

ceasefire is actually Inked there's a

ceasefire is actually Inked there's a lot of risk because the ukrainians are

lot of risk because the ukrainians are

lot of risk because the ukrainians are desperate and they want to be in a

desperate and they want to be in a

desperate and they want to be in a better position with more leverage so

better position with more leverage so

better position with more leverage so that's why you've got a new offensive in

that's why you've got a new offensive in

that's why you've got a new offensive in kers inside Russia by the ukrainians

kers inside Russia by the ukrainians

kers inside Russia by the ukrainians which they can hardly afford right now

which they can hardly afford right now

which they can hardly afford right now militarily they also are continuing to

militarily they also are continuing to

militarily they also are continuing to use American Rockets like attacks to hit

use American Rockets like attacks to hit

use American Rockets like attacks to hit Russian targets deeper into their

Russian targets deeper into their

Russian targets deeper into their territory assassination attempt and the

territory assassination attempt and the

territory assassination attempt and the rest Russia launching more missiles into

rest Russia launching more missiles into

rest Russia launching more missiles into Kiev into other uh cities civilian

Kiev into other uh cities civilian

Kiev into other uh cities civilian targets critical infrastructure energy

targets critical infrastructure energy

targets critical infrastructure energy infrastructure and of course all sorts

infrastructure and of course all sorts

infrastructure and of course all sorts of asymmetrical attacks against NATO

of asymmetrical attacks against NATO

of asymmetrical attacks against NATO allies so that is going to get worse

allies so that is going to get worse

allies so that is going to get worse before we have a ceasefire so there's a

before we have a ceasefire so there's a

before we have a ceasefire so there's a lot of risk around that even once we

lot of risk around that even once we

lot of risk around that even once we have a ceasefire that ceasefire is not a

have a ceasefire that ceasefire is not a

have a ceasefire that ceasefire is not a negotiated settlement which means the

negotiated settlement which means the

negotiated settlement which means the ukrainians are still arming up and

ukrainians are still arming up and

ukrainians are still arming up and building up and the Russians are too and

building up and the Russians are too and

building up and the Russians are too and the Europeans feel like that is a big

the Europeans feel like that is a big

the Europeans feel like that is a big risk to them so I fully expect that

risk to them so I fully expect that

risk to them so I fully expect that sanctions on Russia will stay in place I

sanctions on Russia will stay in place I

sanctions on Russia will stay in place I I fully expect that the freezing of

I fully expect that the freezing of

I fully expect that the freezing of hundreds of billions of Russian

hundreds of billions of Russian

hundreds of billions of Russian Sovereign dollars uh assets euros and

Sovereign dollars uh assets euros and

Sovereign dollars uh assets euros and the rest um will be used to rebuild

the rest um will be used to rebuild

the rest um will be used to rebuild Ukraine and that's unacceptable to

Ukraine and that's unacceptable to

Ukraine and that's unacceptable to Russia and they'll still be engaged in a

Russia and they'll still be engaged in a

Russia and they'll still be engaged in a proxy war against fr line NATO States

proxy war against fr line NATO States

proxy war against fr line NATO States like Poland and the bals and the nordics

like Poland and the bals and the nordics

like Poland and the bals and the nordics um they'll still use telegram to pay off

um they'll still use telegram to pay off

um they'll still use telegram to pay off locals to engage in arson attacks uh and

locals to engage in arson attacks uh and

locals to engage in arson attacks uh and vandalism and even assassination

vandalism and even assassination

vandalism and even assassination attempts so this is I mean Russia is the

attempts so this is I mean Russia is the

attempts so this is I mean Russia is the most powerful Rogue state in the world

most powerful Rogue state in the world

most powerful Rogue state in the world it is an ally of North Korea uh and Iran

it is an ally of North Korea uh and Iran

it is an ally of North Korea uh and Iran these are chaos actors on the global

these are chaos actors on the global

these are chaos actors on the global stage and they are absolutely producing

stage and they are absolutely producing

stage and they are absolutely producing a lot of risk and instability

a lot of risk and instability

a lot of risk and instability um Ukraine the war in Ukraine 3 years on

um Ukraine the war in Ukraine 3 years on

um Ukraine the war in Ukraine 3 years on should be heading towards a ceasefire so

should be heading towards a ceasefire so

should be heading towards a ceasefire so I think there will be less Ukraine in

I think there will be less Ukraine in

I think there will be less Ukraine in the headlines once that ceasefire is in

the headlines once that ceasefire is in

the headlines once that ceasefire is in place so let me just make sure that I'm

place so let me just make sure that I'm

place so let me just make sure that I'm understanding something because in that

understanding something because in that

understanding something because in that you describe Trump basically saying I

you describe Trump basically saying I

you describe Trump basically saying I want to cease fire and so that's what

want to cease fire and so that's what

want to cease fire and so that's what needs to happen doesn't that imply that

needs to happen doesn't that imply that

needs to happen doesn't that imply that America still does have the power and

America still does have the power and

America still does have the power and the sway and the influence that it once

the sway and the influence that it once

the sway and the influence that it once had or how does this how does that

had or how does this how does that

had or how does this how does that ladder back up to the idea of this being

ladder back up to the idea of this being

ladder back up to the idea of this being a gzero world I I think that the United

a gzero world I I think that the United

a gzero world I I think that the United States has an enormous amount of power

States has an enormous amount of power

States has an enormous amount of power but the big difference is this is Trump

but the big difference is this is Trump

but the big difference is this is Trump saying this unilaterally right I mean

saying this unilaterally right I mean

saying this unilaterally right I mean he's the one that is deciding um that

he's the one that is deciding um that

he's the one that is deciding um that there is going to be an outcome that he

there is going to be an outcome that he

there is going to be an outcome that he wants um and it's not like he's

wants um and it's not like he's

wants um and it's not like he's coordinating with NATO allies and saying

coordinating with NATO allies and saying

coordinating with NATO allies and saying we all have to sit down and make sure

we all have to sit down and make sure

we all have to sit down and make sure that we're Consolidated one of the

that we're Consolidated one of the

that we're Consolidated one of the interesting things I mean Biden did do

interesting things I mean Biden did do

interesting things I mean Biden did do that well in getting the ukrainians to

that well in getting the ukrainians to

that well in getting the ukrainians to the negotiating table he failed at that

the negotiating table he failed at that

the negotiating table he failed at that what Biden did well was ensuring that

what Biden did well was ensuring that

what Biden did well was ensuring that NATO was in lock step on policy every

NATO was in lock step on policy every

NATO was in lock step on policy every step of the way on sanctions on

step of the way on sanctions on

step of the way on sanctions on armaments for the ukrainians on

armaments for the ukrainians on

armaments for the ukrainians on intelligence sharing the rest uh Trump

intelligence sharing the rest uh Trump

intelligence sharing the rest uh Trump is not going to do that Trump wants to

is not going to do that Trump wants to

is not going to do that Trump wants to end Wars he wants to end wars in the

end Wars he wants to end wars in the

end Wars he wants to end wars in the Middle East he wants to get the

Middle East he wants to get the

Middle East he wants to get the Americans out he wants to end the war

Americans out he wants to end the war

Americans out he wants to end the war between Russia Ukraine he wants to get

between Russia Ukraine he wants to get

between Russia Ukraine he wants to get the Americans out um just like he did in

the Americans out um just like he did in

the Americans out um just like he did in Afghanistan I mean Afghanistan reflects

Afghanistan I mean Afghanistan reflects

Afghanistan I mean Afghanistan reflects a g0o now the United States I support

a g0o now the United States I support

a g0o now the United States I support ending the war in Afghanistan not that

ending the war in Afghanistan not that

ending the war in Afghanistan not that we care about what I want or don't want

we care about what I want or don't want

we care about what I want or don't want I mean the Americans had spent over a

I mean the Americans had spent over a

I mean the Americans had spent over a trillion dollars enormous numbers of

trillion dollars enormous numbers of

trillion dollars enormous numbers of lives that were lost since the US has

lives that were lost since the US has

lives that were lost since the US has left Afghanistan that hasn't happened

left Afghanistan that hasn't happened

left Afghanistan that hasn't happened but there's a power vacuum in

but there's a power vacuum in

but there's a power vacuum in Afghanistan it's not like anyone else

Afghanistan it's not like anyone else

Afghanistan it's not like anyone else has come in to try to provide any level

has come in to try to provide any level

has come in to try to provide any level of stability in that country and never

of stability in that country and never

of stability in that country and never mind just for the Afghans themselves but

mind just for the Afghans themselves but

mind just for the Afghans themselves but also exporting drugs and instability and

also exporting drugs and instability and

also exporting drugs and instability and all the like that that is what we are

all the like that that is what we are

all the like that that is what we are going to see coming from all over the

going to see coming from all over the

going to see coming from all over the place as a consequence of the United

place as a consequence of the United

place as a consequence of the United States that is saying not it you know

States that is saying not it you know

States that is saying not it you know we're focused on ourselves and we're

we're focused on ourselves and we're

we're focused on ourselves and we're going to get you know cut unilateral

going to get you know cut unilateral

going to get you know cut unilateral deals and you know the Allies you're

deals and you know the Allies you're

deals and you know the Allies you're gonna have to listen us I see so it's

gonna have to listen us I see so it's

gonna have to listen us I see so it's the unilateral nature of this and it's

the unilateral nature of this and it's

the unilateral nature of this and it's the kind of self-absorbed self-involved

the kind of self-absorbed self-involved

the kind of self-absorbed self-involved self-facing nature of the of the power

self-facing nature of the of the power

self-facing nature of the of the power that is different from that kind of

that is different from that kind of

that is different from that kind of collaborative allies Allied axis that we

collaborative allies Allied axis that we

collaborative allies Allied axis that we used to we used to know in years past

used to we used to know in years past

used to we used to know in years past that's right the United States is not

that's right the United States is not

that's right the United States is not becoming

becoming

becoming isolationist the United States is

isolationist the United States is

isolationist the United States is increasingly becoming transactional so

increasingly becoming transactional so

increasingly becoming transactional so if you think about what American

if you think about what American

if you think about what American exceptionalism was and frankly what

exceptionalism was and frankly what

exceptionalism was and frankly what globalism was to a degree it was the

globalism was to a degree it was the

globalism was to a degree it was the United States saying we support Global

United States saying we support Global

United States saying we support Global rule of law multilateralism and all of

rule of law multilateralism and all of

rule of law multilateralism and all of these institutions that we built up and

these institutions that we built up and

these institutions that we built up and we want you to to actually abide by

we want you to to actually abide by

we want you to to actually abide by those rules all of us together and by

those rules all of us together and by

those rules all of us together and by the way China your dictatorship and your

the way China your dictatorship and your

the way China your dictatorship and your not free market economy we're going to

not free market economy we're going to

not free market economy we're going to bring you into our institutions and

bring you into our institutions and

bring you into our institutions and we're going to expect that you're going

we're going to expect that you're going

we're going to expect that you're going to be behaving by those rules too so we

to be behaving by those rules too so we

to be behaving by those rules too so we want you to be responsible stakeholders

want you to be responsible stakeholders

want you to be responsible stakeholders now that last bet didn't work the

now that last bet didn't work the

now that last bet didn't work the Chinese got rich but they didn't become

Chinese got rich but they didn't become

Chinese got rich but they didn't become responsible Stak holders they didn't

responsible Stak holders they didn't

responsible Stak holders they didn't become Democratic they didn't become

become Democratic they didn't become

become Democratic they didn't become free market they didn't support rule of

free market they didn't support rule of

free market they didn't support rule of law what's really interesting is that

law what's really interesting is that

law what's really interesting is that the United States has instead move

the United States has instead move

the United States has instead move towards a more Chinese model in other

towards a more Chinese model in other

towards a more Chinese model in other words the United States is increasingly

words the United States is increasingly

words the United States is increasingly saying we don't care about these

saying we don't care about these

saying we don't care about these multilateral institutions we're not

multilateral institutions we're not

multilateral institutions we're not going to support the United Nations the

going to support the United Nations the

going to support the United Nations the the the United States might well stop

the the United States might well stop

the the United States might well stop paying its dues to the UN I mean

paying its dues to the UN I mean

paying its dues to the UN I mean certainly on the back of Elise stefanic

certainly on the back of Elise stefanic

certainly on the back of Elise stefanic um and the appointment of ambassador to

um and the appointment of ambassador to

um and the appointment of ambassador to the United Nations that appears to be

the United Nations that appears to be

the United Nations that appears to be the trajectory the Trump has said he

the trajectory the Trump has said he

the trajectory the Trump has said he wants to pull out of the World Health

wants to pull out of the World Health

wants to pull out of the World Health Organization um he's said you know Paris

Organization um he's said you know Paris

Organization um he's said you know Paris climate Accord out again right I mean

climate Accord out again right I mean

climate Accord out again right I mean the US is not interested in that the US

the US is not interested in that the US

the US is not interested in that the US is interested in in focusing on its own

is interested in in focusing on its own

is interested in in focusing on its own power its own priorities and other

power its own priorities and other

power its own priorities and other countries have to like it or lump it uh

countries have to like it or lump it uh

countries have to like it or lump it uh and so that's it's a radically different

and so that's it's a radically different

and so that's it's a radically different environment than a us-led global order

environment than a us-led global order

environment than a us-led global order that that is not there's no Global Order

that that is not there's no Global Order

that that is not there's no Global Order that's being led by the US it's a us-led

that's being led by the US it's a us-led

that's being led by the US it's a us-led us and and a China China and everybody

us and and a China China and everybody

us and and a China China and everybody else trying to hope they don't have to

else trying to hope they don't have to

else trying to hope they don't have to play sides you know and just on defense

play sides you know and just on defense

play sides you know and just on defense everyone playing defense okay let's talk

everyone playing defense okay let's talk

everyone playing defense okay let's talk about another geopolitical power that is

about another geopolitical power that is

about another geopolitical power that is hugely important always and that is Iran

hugely important always and that is Iran

hugely important always and that is Iran which in your view has gotten weaker

which in your view has gotten weaker

which in your view has gotten weaker over the last year or so obviously we've

over the last year or so obviously we've

over the last year or so obviously we've been seeing the war playing out in Gaza

been seeing the war playing out in Gaza

been seeing the war playing out in Gaza we've been seeing um Hezbollah was um

we've been seeing um Hezbollah was um

we've been seeing um Hezbollah was um has been weakened considerably in in

has been weakened considerably in in

has been weakened considerably in in Lebanon but what do you make of what's

Lebanon but what do you make of what's

Lebanon but what do you make of what's going on in Iran and what should be we

going on in Iran and what should be we

going on in Iran and what should be we be watching for in terms of risks uh I

be watching for in terms of risks uh I

be watching for in terms of risks uh I think Iran this year has become the most

think Iran this year has become the most

think Iran this year has become the most important Middle East risk as opposed to

important Middle East risk as opposed to

important Middle East risk as opposed to last year when we were focused on Gaza

last year when we were focused on Gaza

last year when we were focused on Gaza and the expansion of that war West Bank

and the expansion of that war West Bank

and the expansion of that war West Bank Lebanon Hezbollah um those Wars are

Lebanon Hezbollah um those Wars are

Lebanon Hezbollah um those Wars are going to be winding down um and Trump

going to be winding down um and Trump

going to be winding down um and Trump wants them uh to wind down and frankly

wants them uh to wind down and frankly

wants them uh to wind down and frankly the Israelis have accomplished most uh

the Israelis have accomplished most uh

the Israelis have accomplished most uh of what they have wanted to accomplish

of what they have wanted to accomplish

of what they have wanted to accomplish in them and they're the ones that are

in them and they're the ones that are

in them and they're the ones that are determining dictating how the war is

determining dictating how the war is

determining dictating how the war is being fought the wars are being fought

being fought the wars are being fought

being fought the wars are being fought because they have dominance in military

because they have dominance in military

because they have dominance in military escalation and capabilities Iran um is

escalation and capabilities Iran um is

escalation and capabilities Iran um is Israel's principal adversary in the

Israel's principal adversary in the

Israel's principal adversary in the region America's principal adversary in

region America's principal adversary in

region America's principal adversary in the region but they are at a historic

the region but they are at a historic

the region but they are at a historic weak point um post Revolution they've as

weak point um post Revolution they've as

weak point um post Revolution they've as you say

you say

you say lost uh their empire their their axis of

lost uh their empire their their axis of

lost uh their empire their their axis of resistance I mean you know Yemen and the

resistance I mean you know Yemen and the

resistance I mean you know Yemen and the houthis uh which was the most autonomous

houthis uh which was the most autonomous

houthis uh which was the most autonomous of the groups are still doing okay um

of the groups are still doing okay um

of the groups are still doing okay um but Assad is gone which means they can't

but Assad is gone which means they can't

but Assad is gone which means they can't get weapons to Lebanon um Hezbollah is

get weapons to Lebanon um Hezbollah is

get weapons to Lebanon um Hezbollah is basically gone and their leadership has

basically gone and their leadership has

basically gone and their leadership has been destroyed Hamas is gone um Islamic

been destroyed Hamas is gone um Islamic

been destroyed Hamas is gone um Islamic Jihad Palestinian Islamic Jihad in a lot

Jihad Palestinian Islamic Jihad in a lot

Jihad Palestinian Islamic Jihad in a lot of trouble um and so if you you are Iran

of trouble um and so if you you are Iran

of trouble um and so if you you are Iran um you know that you can't rely on your

um you know that you can't rely on your

um you know that you can't rely on your Regional strategy

Regional strategy

Regional strategy anymore uh they also have a lot of

anymore uh they also have a lot of

anymore uh they also have a lot of domestic problems their economy is doing

domestic problems their economy is doing

domestic problems their economy is doing horribly and Trump coming in is going to

horribly and Trump coming in is going to

horribly and Trump coming in is going to increase the pressure to prevent all of

increase the pressure to prevent all of

increase the pressure to prevent all of these uh non-flag tankers from getting

these uh non-flag tankers from getting

these uh non-flag tankers from getting out um and allowing the Iranians to sell

out um and allowing the Iranians to sell

out um and allowing the Iranians to sell their oil illegally so uh the economic

their oil illegally so uh the economic

their oil illegally so uh the economic situation which is already in freef Fall

situation which is already in freef Fall

situation which is already in freef Fall with lots of um you know energy shortage

with lots of um you know energy shortage

with lots of um you know energy shortage and also some of the worst air pollution

and also some of the worst air pollution

and also some of the worst air pollution in the world because they have to burn

in the world because they have to burn

in the world because they have to burn anything they can find um is going to

anything they can find um is going to

anything they can find um is going to get much worse this reminds me of the

get much worse this reminds me of the

get much worse this reminds me of the Soviet Union in about 1989 when they

Soviet Union in about 1989 when they

Soviet Union in about 1989 when they lost the East block and suddenly the

lost the East block and suddenly the

lost the East block and suddenly the people in the Soviet Union saw the

people in the Soviet Union saw the

people in the Soviet Union saw the emperor had no close uh and that the

emperor had no close uh and that the

emperor had no close uh and that the system wasn't working now the Iranians

system wasn't working now the Iranians

system wasn't working now the Iranians have the capacity to engage in a lot of

have the capacity to engage in a lot of

have the capacity to engage in a lot of domestic repression but the Supreme

domestic repression but the Supreme

domestic repression but the Supreme Leader's 85 years old he's not well he

Leader's 85 years old he's not well he

Leader's 85 years old he's not well he has not picked a clear successor

has not picked a clear successor

has not picked a clear successor um and there are also insurgencies

um and there are also insurgencies

um and there are also insurgencies including with ethnic minorities in Iran

including with ethnic minorities in Iran

including with ethnic minorities in Iran in places like sistan and bistan so I

in places like sistan and bistan so I

in places like sistan and bistan so I mean frankly I don't think that Iran is

mean frankly I don't think that Iran is

mean frankly I don't think that Iran is on the precipice of implosion but they

on the precipice of implosion but they

on the precipice of implosion but they are heading there and the Americans and

are heading there and the Americans and

are heading there and the Americans and the Israelis may be interested in

the Israelis may be interested in

the Israelis may be interested in helping them get there um I mean Israel

helping them get there um I mean Israel

helping them get there um I mean Israel certainly sees this as a unique

certainly sees this as a unique

certainly sees this as a unique opportunity to take care of their Iran

opportunity to take care of their Iran

opportunity to take care of their Iran business now they can do a lot they can

business now they can do a lot they can

business now they can do a lot they can hit them with iage cyber um critical

hit them with iage cyber um critical

hit them with iage cyber um critical infrastructure they could take out some

infrastructure they could take out some

infrastructure they could take out some of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corp

of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corp

of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corp what they can't do by themselves is take

what they can't do by themselves is take

what they can't do by themselves is take out the nuclear capabilities they need

out the nuclear capabilities they need

out the nuclear capabilities they need American Military capacity for that and

American Military capacity for that and

American Military capacity for that and so the question is Will trump help and

so the question is Will trump help and

so the question is Will trump help and there are those in the incoming Trump

there are those in the incoming Trump

there are those in the incoming Trump Administration that thinks that's

Administration that thinks that's

Administration that thinks that's exactly what Trump should do not clear I

exactly what Trump should do not clear I

exactly what Trump should do not clear I I suspect he doesn't want to risk

I suspect he doesn't want to risk

I suspect he doesn't want to risk Another War um that could lead oil

Another War um that could lead oil

Another War um that could lead oil prices to get higher impact the global

prices to get higher impact the global

prices to get higher impact the global Marketplace I suspect he's going to hit

Marketplace I suspect he's going to hit

Marketplace I suspect he's going to hit the Iranians hard and see what kind of a

the Iranians hard and see what kind of a

the Iranians hard and see what kind of a deal might be cut by them so there's a

deal might be cut by them so there's a

deal might be cut by them so there's a possibility that you know a much tougher

possibility that you know a much tougher

possibility that you know a much tougher relationship with Iran creates more risk

relationship with Iran creates more risk

relationship with Iran creates more risk But ultimately creates a deal and Trump

But ultimately creates a deal and Trump

But ultimately creates a deal and Trump gets a Nobel Peace Prize I wouldn't bet

gets a Nobel Peace Prize I wouldn't bet

gets a Nobel Peace Prize I wouldn't bet on that I think it's unlikely the

on that I think it's unlikely the

on that I think it's unlikely the Iranians and a trump Administration will

Iranians and a trump Administration will

Iranians and a trump Administration will come to an agreement it's more likely

come to an agreement it's more likely

come to an agreement it's more likely that we're heading towards direct

that we're heading towards direct

that we're heading towards direct confrontation

confrontation

confrontation let's change Tac just a little bit so

let's change Tac just a little bit so

let's change Tac just a little bit so you and I have talked very directly

you and I have talked very directly

you and I have talked very directly about the need for regulation of

about the need for regulation of

about the need for regulation of artificial intelligence and you actually

artificial intelligence and you actually

artificial intelligence and you actually have been working very directly and very

have been working very directly and very

have been working very directly and very specifically on just that topic and yet

specifically on just that topic and yet

specifically on just that topic and yet you still have ai Unbound on your list

you still have ai Unbound on your list

you still have ai Unbound on your list of risks so does that mean that

of risks so does that mean that

of risks so does that mean that regulation is not coming for AI or where

regulation is not coming for AI or where

regulation is not coming for AI or where do you think we are with that and what

do you think we are with that and what

do you think we are with that and what do you think we should be watching for

do you think we should be watching for

do you think we should be watching for yeah Helen that's pretty much what it

yeah Helen that's pretty much what it

yeah Helen that's pretty much what it means uh it means that the efforts at

means uh it means that the efforts at

means uh it means that the efforts at regulation have been going a lot slower

regulation have been going a lot slower

regulation have been going a lot slower than the technological build not

than the technological build not

than the technological build not surprising given how extraordinary the

surprising given how extraordinary the

surprising given how extraordinary the technology is and just how much money is

technology is and just how much money is

technology is and just how much money is going into it and also that some of the

going into it and also that some of the

going into it and also that some of the regulation in place is actually going

regulation in place is actually going

regulation in place is actually going away or is eroding um the uh United

away or is eroding um the uh United

away or is eroding um the uh United Kingdom last year put their flag uh in

Kingdom last year put their flag uh in

Kingdom last year put their flag uh in the AI landscape by saying that they

the AI landscape by saying that they

the AI landscape by saying that they were going to host every year an AI

were going to host every year an AI

were going to host every year an AI safety Summit that's how they really

safety Summit that's how they really

safety Summit that's how they really wanted to make sure that everyone was

wanted to make sure that everyone was

wanted to make sure that everyone was paying attention to the UK they just

paying attention to the UK they just

paying attention to the UK they just rebranded it this year's is going to be

rebranded it this year's is going to be

rebranded it this year's is going to be called the AI action Summit tells you a

called the AI action Summit tells you a

called the AI action Summit tells you a lot they don't want to be left behind

lot they don't want to be left behind

lot they don't want to be left behind they want to make sure that they're

they want to make sure that they're

they want to make sure that they're competitive and they're building more

competitive and they're building more

competitive and they're building more capacity the EU feeling the same way the

capacity the EU feeling the same way the

capacity the EU feeling the same way the French feeling the same way really

French feeling the same way really

French feeling the same way really wanting to help their own nent unicorns

wanting to help their own nent unicorns

wanting to help their own nent unicorns and not

and not

and not overregulation probably going to end um

overregulation probably going to end um

overregulation probably going to end um the resend the uh executive order by

the resend the uh executive order by

the resend the uh executive order by Biden with the heads of the seven

Biden with the heads of the seven

Biden with the heads of the seven systemically important us AI companies

systemically important us AI companies

systemically important us AI companies uh he'll probably also stop the nent us

uh he'll probably also stop the nent us

uh he'll probably also stop the nent us Chinese um AI dialogue that was hoped

Chinese um AI dialogue that was hoped

Chinese um AI dialogue that was hoped over time would try to reduce the

over time would try to reduce the

over time would try to reduce the potential for an AI arms race of the

potential for an AI arms race of the

potential for an AI arms race of the kind that we had with the Soviets on

kind that we had with the Soviets on

kind that we had with the Soviets on nuclear weapons in the early Cold War um

nuclear weapons in the early Cold War um

nuclear weapons in the early Cold War um the US European trade and Technology

the US European trade and Technology

the US European trade and Technology Council likely to be Unwound under Trump

Council likely to be Unwound under Trump

Council likely to be Unwound under Trump so all of these early stage efforts that

so all of these early stage efforts that

so all of these early stage efforts that were not moving fast enough um are

were not moving fast enough um are

were not moving fast enough um are probably not going to be with us

probably not going to be with us

probably not going to be with us effectively for long um in addition to

effectively for long um in addition to

effectively for long um in addition to that uh we are already seeing that the

that uh we are already seeing that the

that uh we are already seeing that the advances in this technology and you know

advances in this technology and you know

advances in this technology and you know that I'm an Enthusiast for AI I believe

that I'm an Enthusiast for AI I believe

that I'm an Enthusiast for AI I believe that you know incredible human capital

that you know incredible human capital

that you know incredible human capital will be unlocked extraordinary

will be unlocked extraordinary

will be unlocked extraordinary industrial use cases in every sector

industrial use cases in every sector

industrial use cases in every sector around the world but I also see people

around the world but I also see people

around the world but I also see people Bad actors that are capable of using uh

Bad actors that are capable of using uh

Bad actors that are capable of using uh this AI in ways that are dangerous um

this AI in ways that are dangerous um

this AI in ways that are dangerous um and I'll give you example Le I mean you

and I'll give you example Le I mean you

and I'll give you example Le I mean you look at um meta and their open- Source

look at um meta and their open- Source

look at um meta and their open- Source llama chatbot and there are a lot of

llama chatbot and there are a lot of

llama chatbot and there are a lot of people out there that are basically

people out there that are basically

people out there that are basically re-engineering llama uh so that it

re-engineering llama uh so that it

re-engineering llama uh so that it doesn't adhere um to the constraints um

doesn't adhere um to the constraints um

doesn't adhere um to the constraints um the uh if you will the the the ideology

the uh if you will the the the ideology

the uh if you will the the the ideology of meta but what some would also say

of meta but what some would also say

of meta but what some would also say would be the safety um of meta and and

would be the safety um of meta and and

would be the safety um of meta and and some of my people have downloaded those

some of my people have downloaded those

some of my people have downloaded those on their laptops and started using it

on their laptops and started using it

on their laptops and started using it just what you can do and they've gotten

just what you can do and they've gotten

just what you can do and they've gotten the AI bot to explain how to use arsenic

the AI bot to explain how to use arsenic

the AI bot to explain how to use arsenic to assassinate someone to help them

to assassinate someone to help them

to assassinate someone to help them figure out how you would Target and kill

figure out how you would Target and kill

figure out how you would Target and kill a major CEO of a company now I mean we

a major CEO of a company now I mean we

a major CEO of a company now I mean we we're not doing that obviously but lots

we're not doing that obviously but lots

we're not doing that obviously but lots of people are um and that is not

of people are um and that is not

of people are um and that is not sustainable so I mean the extraordinary

sustainable so I mean the extraordinary

sustainable so I mean the extraordinary capabilities of these

capabilities of these

capabilities of these Technologies the the unfettered comp

Technologies the the unfettered comp

Technologies the the unfettered comp competition which is driving so much

competition which is driving so much

competition which is driving so much compute and energy use and capital and

compute and energy use and capital and

compute and energy use and capital and Entrepreneurship from the Americans from

Entrepreneurship from the Americans from

Entrepreneurship from the Americans from the Chinese and from others is not being

the Chinese and from others is not being

the Chinese and from others is not being met by anywhere close to an adequate

met by anywhere close to an adequate

met by anywhere close to an adequate regulatory environment and that means

regulatory environment and that means

regulatory environment and that means that we're only going to figure out you

that we're only going to figure out you

that we're only going to figure out you know where things break when they break

know where things break when they break

know where things break when they break uh and we are heading in that direction

uh and we are heading in that direction

uh and we are heading in that direction right so it's going to take some in

right so it's going to take some in

right so it's going to take some in intense catastrophe for people to start

intense catastrophe for people to start

intense catastrophe for people to start to take that seriously and as we know

to take that seriously and as we know

to take that seriously and as we know with gun control maybe not even take it

with gun control maybe not even take it

with gun control maybe not even take it seriously then that's probably right all

seriously then that's probably right all

seriously then that's probably right all right now this is Ted Ian we are not

right now this is Ted Ian we are not

right now this is Ted Ian we are not just about risks we all appreciate that

just about risks we all appreciate that

just about risks we all appreciate that you came here and you have detailed the

you came here and you have detailed the

you came here and you have detailed the top risks but I have to turn it on its

top risks but I have to turn it on its

top risks but I have to turn it on its head if you don't mind just for the last

head if you don't mind just for the last

head if you don't mind just for the last question because we love those who are

question because we love those who are

question because we love those who are looking for Solutions not just detailing

looking for Solutions not just detailing

looking for Solutions not just detailing the problems and I asked you this last

the problems and I asked you this last

the problems and I asked you this last time when we went through the risks of

time when we went through the risks of

time when we went through the risks of 2024 and so I have to ask you again what

2024 and so I have to ask you again what

2024 and so I have to ask you again what or who or where are the bright spots

or who or where are the bright spots

or who or where are the bright spots what gives you hope in 2025 well I mean

what gives you hope in 2025 well I mean

what gives you hope in 2025 well I mean first of all taking away the

first of all taking away the

first of all taking away the geopolitics the technology is a bright

geopolitics the technology is a bright

geopolitics the technology is a bright spot um the technology for AI the

spot um the technology for AI the

spot um the technology for AI the technology uh for sustainable energy uh

technology uh for sustainable energy uh

technology uh for sustainable energy uh I mean I I don't care uh if the US pulls

I mean I I don't care uh if the US pulls

I mean I I don't care uh if the US pulls out of Paris climate Accord and Trump

out of Paris climate Accord and Trump

out of Paris climate Accord and Trump says he's not going to subsidize

says he's not going to subsidize

says he's not going to subsidize electric vehicles anymore and he wants

electric vehicles anymore and he wants

electric vehicles anymore and he wants to help fossil fuels all of that is not

to help fossil fuels all of that is not

to help fossil fuels all of that is not going to stop an extraordinary

going to stop an extraordinary

going to stop an extraordinary transition to postc carbon energies

transition to postc carbon energies

transition to postc carbon energies which the Chinese are leading on

which the Chinese are leading on

which the Chinese are leading on globally and they may extend that lead

globally and they may extend that lead

globally and they may extend that lead um but I mean they're going to be carbon

um but I mean they're going to be carbon

um but I mean they're going to be carbon neutral a lot faster than

neutral a lot faster than

neutral a lot faster than 2030 um and a lot faster than they

2030 um and a lot faster than they

2030 um and a lot faster than they expected now some of that's because

expected now some of that's because

expected now some of that's because their econom is not doing that well but

their econom is not doing that well but

their econom is not doing that well but some of that is because the price of

some of that is because the price of

some of that is because the price of these Technologies at scale has been

these Technologies at scale has been

these Technologies at scale has been going down down down you know I mean

going down down down you know I mean

going down down down you know I mean following Moors law basically um so

following Moors law basically um so

following Moors law basically um so that's extraordinary I love the idea

that's extraordinary I love the idea

that's extraordinary I love the idea that in 20 to 30 years we're going to

that in 20 to 30 years we're going to

that in 20 to 30 years we're going to have sustainable abundant inexpensive

have sustainable abundant inexpensive

have sustainable abundant inexpensive energy for the world that's that's

energy for the world that's that's

energy for the world that's that's pretty exciting um I love the idea that

pretty exciting um I love the idea that

pretty exciting um I love the idea that um the use cases for AI every day are

um the use cases for AI every day are

um the use cases for AI every day are becoming more and more Earth changing

becoming more and more Earth changing

becoming more and more Earth changing and that will reduce waste that will

and that will reduce waste that will

and that will reduce waste that will allow us to better measure things around

allow us to better measure things around

allow us to better measure things around the world and when you measure them you

the world and when you measure them you

the world and when you measure them you can manage them when you manage them um

can manage them when you manage them um

can manage them when you manage them um you can improve upon them uh that's I

you can improve upon them uh that's I

you can improve upon them uh that's I mean we haven't had good real-time data

mean we haven't had good real-time data

mean we haven't had good real-time data on our world on our economy on our

on our world on our economy on our

on our world on our economy on our environment AI will give us that um and

environment AI will give us that um and

environment AI will give us that um and that will allow us to more efficiently

that will allow us to more efficiently

that will allow us to more efficiently use the resources the scarce resources

use the resources the scarce resources

use the resources the scarce resources that we've been blessed with so I'm a

that we've been blessed with so I'm a

that we've been blessed with so I'm a big

big

big Enthusiast about the Technologies as is

Enthusiast about the Technologies as is

Enthusiast about the Technologies as is Ted um but those aren't geopolitical

Ted um but those aren't geopolitical

Ted um but those aren't geopolitical upsides the geopolitical upsides I I'll

upsides the geopolitical upsides I I'll

upsides the geopolitical upsides I I'll give you a couple um

give you a couple um

give you a couple um one is that Trump is not going to be a

one is that Trump is not going to be a

one is that Trump is not going to be a failure the fact that Trump has such a

failure the fact that Trump has such a

failure the fact that Trump has such a strong position does mean that other

strong position does mean that other

strong position does mean that other countries will want to give him WIS and

countries will want to give him WIS and

countries will want to give him WIS and that is stabilizing where those winds

that is stabilizing where those winds

that is stabilizing where those winds occur so I mentioned that cloudia shine

occur so I mentioned that cloudia shine

occur so I mentioned that cloudia shine bomb is going to do everything possible

bomb is going to do everything possible

bomb is going to do everything possible to find a way to fix the relationship

to find a way to fix the relationship

to find a way to fix the relationship that Trump thinks is broken it may take

that Trump thinks is broken it may take

that Trump thinks is broken it may take her longer than she wants I think she

her longer than she wants I think she

her longer than she wants I think she will get there uh the Europeans and the

will get there uh the Europeans and the

will get there uh the Europeans and the Americans may get into a tit fortat

Americans may get into a tit fortat

Americans may get into a tit fortat tariff War but I also think they're

tariff War but I also think they're

tariff War but I also think they're going to work more closely on

going to work more closely on

going to work more closely on coordinating some policies on China I

coordinating some policies on China I

coordinating some policies on China I think they'll work more closely the

think they'll work more closely the

think they'll work more closely the Europeans will buy more natural gas from

Europeans will buy more natural gas from

Europeans will buy more natural gas from the United States there is a desire to

the United States there is a desire to

the United States there is a desire to get a deal done that's not going to work

get a deal done that's not going to work

get a deal done that's not going to work everywhere I don't think it'll work on

everywhere I don't think it'll work on

everywhere I don't think it'll work on China I don't think it'll work on Iran I

China I don't think it'll work on Iran I

China I don't think it'll work on Iran I don't think it'll fix the Russia

don't think it'll fix the Russia

don't think it'll fix the Russia conflict but where it does work it will

conflict but where it does work it will

conflict but where it does work it will be meaningful and you want the president

be meaningful and you want the president

be meaningful and you want the president of the United States to have some wins I

of the United States to have some wins I

of the United States to have some wins I mean at the end of the day he's the most

mean at the end of the day he's the most

mean at the end of the day he's the most powerful leader of any country in the

powerful leader of any country in the

powerful leader of any country in the world that's important

world that's important

world that's important secondarily one place I strongly

secondarily one place I strongly

secondarily one place I strongly disagree with Trump trump believes that

disagree with Trump trump believes that

disagree with Trump trump believes that a strong Europe is bad for the United

a strong Europe is bad for the United

a strong Europe is bad for the United States in a gzero world I think a strong

States in a gzero world I think a strong

States in a gzero world I think a strong Europe is good for the United States

Europe is good for the United States

Europe is good for the United States it's good for global stability and it's

it's good for global stability and it's

it's good for global stability and it's also good longterm for keeping American

also good longterm for keeping American

also good longterm for keeping American adversaries at Bay um Trump is

adversaries at Bay um Trump is

adversaries at Bay um Trump is supporting an Elon Musk particular is

supporting an Elon Musk particular is

supporting an Elon Musk particular is supporting all of these euroskeptic

supporting all of these euroskeptic

supporting all of these euroskeptic movements the Reform Party um in the UK

movements the Reform Party um in the UK

movements the Reform Party um in the UK the alternatives for deuts land um in

the alternatives for deuts land um in

the alternatives for deuts land um in Germany I suspect soon the national

Germany I suspect soon the national

Germany I suspect soon the national rally in France though he hasn't spoken

rally in France though he hasn't spoken

rally in France though he hasn't spoken about it yet now that macron's coming

about it yet now that macron's coming

about it yet now that macron's coming after me probably will the good news is

after me probably will the good news is

after me probably will the good news is that I don't think it matters I think

that I don't think it matters I think

that I don't think it matters I think that Europe is going to continue to

that Europe is going to continue to

that Europe is going to continue to stand up in 2025 it might even get

stand up in 2025 it might even get

stand up in 2025 it might even get stronger not economically where they're

stronger not economically where they're

stronger not economically where they're underperform compared to the US but

underperform compared to the US but

underperform compared to the US but politically from a security perspective

politically from a security perspective

politically from a security perspective as well they know they need to and the

as well they know they need to and the

as well they know they need to and the leaders that I see in Europe I see Mark

leaders that I see in Europe I see Mark

leaders that I see in Europe I see Mark Ruta uh as Secretary General of NATO I

Ruta uh as Secretary General of NATO I

Ruta uh as Secretary General of NATO I see Ursula vandine running the EU for a

see Ursula vandine running the EU for a

see Ursula vandine running the EU for a second term um I see a very capable

second term um I see a very capable

second term um I see a very capable Roberto metsola and Kaaya kalis

Roberto metsola and Kaaya kalis

Roberto metsola and Kaaya kalis underneath her um driving foreign policy

underneath her um driving foreign policy

underneath her um driving foreign policy for example in the European Parliament

for example in the European Parliament

for example in the European Parliament um the Germans are about to have an

um the Germans are about to have an

um the Germans are about to have an election know afd is not going to win

election know afd is not going to win

election know afd is not going to win despite Elon saying that they're going

despite Elon saying that they're going

despite Elon saying that they're going to it's going to be Frederick MZ and

to it's going to be Frederick MZ and

to it's going to be Frederick MZ and it's going to be a center-right

it's going to be a center-right

it's going to be a center-right government that's going to be quite

government that's going to be quite

government that's going to be quite close with all the European leaders at

close with all the European leaders at

close with all the European leaders at the EU level and quite close to macron

the EU level and quite close to macron

the EU level and quite close to macron macron is in big trouble in 2027 but he

macron is in big trouble in 2027 but he

macron is in big trouble in 2027 but he runs foreign policy still until then and

runs foreign policy still until then and

runs foreign policy still until then and he's going to be quite cohesive uh with

he's going to be quite cohesive uh with

he's going to be quite cohesive uh with the Germans and with the Europeans in

the Germans and with the Europeans in

the Germans and with the Europeans in 2025 so at least for this year I think

2025 so at least for this year I think

2025 so at least for this year I think the Europeans stand strongly and are

the Europeans stand strongly and are

the Europeans stand strongly and are more cohesive and coordinated it's a

more cohesive and coordinated it's a

more cohesive and coordinated it's a very important thing for what still is

very important thing for what still is

very important thing for what still is the world's largest common

the world's largest common

the world's largest common market well Ian I on behalf of our

market well Ian I on behalf of our

market well Ian I on behalf of our entire Community am an Enthusiast of

entire Community am an Enthusiast of

entire Community am an Enthusiast of these conversations we're very grateful

these conversations we're very grateful

these conversations we're very grateful to you for coming and sharing your

to you for coming and sharing your

to you for coming and sharing your wisdom and your Insight and thank you

wisdom and your Insight and thank you

wisdom and your Insight and thank you for coming back for the next thing that

for coming back for the next thing that

for coming back for the next thing that we will need to discuss and that we will

we will need to discuss and that we will

we will need to discuss and that we will need you to explain for now thank you so

need you to explain for now thank you so

need you to explain for now thank you so much and if you want to take a look at

much and if you want to take a look at

much and if you want to take a look at all of the risks you can see them online

all of the risks you can see them online

all of the risks you can see them online at euras group.net for now Ian signing

at euras group.net for now Ian signing

at euras group.net for now Ian signing off thank you so very much thank you

off thank you so very much thank you

off thank you so very much thank you Helen